2021 NFL Draft Props: First Wide Receiver Selected
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2021 NFL Draft props are here. While the 2020 NFL Draft is still fresh in our memory, that has not stopped oddsmakers from posting props for the 2021 NFL Draft.
The wide receiver position is full of talented players who would be in the conversation to get drafted first in most classes. While the 2021 class is not as deep as 2020, there is more top-end talent. Despite listing eight players, the first receiver taken in next year’s draft may not even be posted (Tamorrion Terry, Seth Williams). Let’s take a look at the top candidates.
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First WR Drafted (via DraftKings)
Ja’Marr Chase (LSU): -125
Ja’Marr Chase is a supremely talented wide receiver who would be the first selected by most NFL teams if drafting today. This would also be true if the college football season gets cancelled. The reigning Fred Biletnikoff Award winner earned the honors as college football’s top wide receiver over the likes of Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb, Michael Pittman, and Devonta Smith.
Chase is going to have to prove that he can succeed without the benefit of Joe Brady calling the offense and Joe Burrow under center, as Myles Brennan figures to be a significant downgrade from 2020’s first overall pick. With that said, if he has 75 percent of the season that he had in 2019, Chase will remain the favorite to be the first wide receiver selected in the 2021 NFL Draft.
DeVonta Smith (Alabama): +400
DeVonta Smith burst onto the scene as a true junior to outproduce Alabama teammates and 2020 first-round picks Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs. He also outplayed 2018 freshman sensation Jaylen Waddle, a teammate who is listed on DraftKings with the same odds (+400).
A Biletnikoff Award finalist in 2019, Smith will hope that an increased target share can help take his game to the next level. However, much like Chase, he will have to deal with a downgrade at quarterback. Mac Jones is the incumbent, but freshman Bryce Young should make an immediate push to start.
Smith will at least have the benefit of having played with Jones under center when Tua Tagovailoa went down with a season-ending injury. However, Jones is a fringe NFL prospect whom Young is expected to eventually supplant. If Smith can add some weight and maintain his explosiveness, while posting similar numbers to his breakout 2019, he could play his way into consideration as the top wide receiver.
Jaylen Waddle (Alabama): +400
Jaylen Waddle broke out as a true freshman for the Alabama Crimson Tide. He then took a step back as a sophomore, as the draft-eligible Ruggs, Jeudy, and Smith all recorded more yards. Despite taking a back seat on a stacked depth chart, Waddle is still viewed as one of 2021’s top wide receiver prospects. Some think he is more talented than Smith.
An excellent route-runner with strong hands, Waddle can win downfield or pick up chunk yardage on short passes thanks to his ability after the catch. He should be considered a lock for the first round; the only question is if he can produce and test well enough to pass the other names on this list in the eyes of NFL front offices.
Tylan Wallace (Oklahoma State): +700
A talented wide receiver and 2018 Biletnikoff Award finalist, Tylan Wallace was on his way to being one of the first wide receivers selected in the 2020 NFL Draft. However, a torn ACL prematurely ended his season and battered his draft stock. He decided to return to school for his senior season, likely in an effort to rehab both his injury and his draft grade.
A physical do-it-all receiver, Wallace residing fourth on this list punctuates just how talented the 2021 class is. With every receiver above him dealing with a quarterback change, Wallace will have an excellent case to be the first drafted if he can return to his 2018 form.
Rondale Moore (Purdue): +800
Rondale Moore is much too talented to be the fifth wideout at +800 odds. Viewed by many as a top-two receiver in next year’s class, it is fair to wonder if Moore represents the best value on the board.
Much like Wallace, he was injured for much of 2019, which likely affects his current odds. A smooth route-runner who can win on intermediate and deep routes, Moore really shines after the catch. He broke out as a freshman and was looking to build on a terrific 2018 that saw him record 114 receptions, 1,258 receiving yards, and 11 touchdowns. However, he was limited to just four games due to a leg injury. If Moore can come close to his 2018 output, he will be in the consensus conversation to be the first wide receiver selected in 2021.
Rashod Bateman (Minnesota): +1000
An incredibly skilled receiver who would be the first at his position taken in most draft classes, Rashod Bateman is still a strong candidate to go first despite the lofty odds. Bateman has it all from size, speed, hands, physicality, and elite route-running.
In 2020, he will have to prove he can still be as dominant as he was with Tyler Johnson drawing some attention. He will also have to contend with the overhyped Tanner Morgan adjusting to life with just one NFL-caliber wide receiver. Still, Bateman has the talent and the opportunity to vault his stock. He has enough exciting tape to sit out the 2020 season due to COVID-19 concerns and still be the first receiver selected in the NFL Draft. He’s that good.
Amon-Ra St. Brown (USC): +2000
Perhaps the wide receiver on this list with the best quarterback (aside from the injured Justyn Ross), Amon-Ra St. Brown can make a massive leap in 2020. Fellow star receiver Michael Pittman and his 120+ targets are now in the NFL, presenting a huge opportunity for St. Brown to show just how good he can be as Kedon Slovis’ undisputed number one receiver.
Justyn Ross (Clemson): +3300
Justyn Ross remains on the board at DraftKings, but has understandably tumbled from +1000 to +3300. He is expected to be sidelined for the season after undergoing successful surgery for a congenital spinal issue. If he misses the season, he has no chance of being the first wide receiver selected. At this point, let’s just hope the young man makes a full recovery and is able to return to pre-injury form on his way to achieving his dream of starring in the NFL.
Conclusion
If the NFL Draft were held today, or the college football season was cancelled, Chase would be the first wide receiver selected. However, as of now, it appears that the NCAA will attempt to hold the college football season.
One season can change a lot when it comes to the wide receiver position. Day 3 talents can become first-round picks, and players projected as late first-round material can shoot up boards to become the first selected. NFL Combine testing can also play a correlative role in where a wide receiver gets drafted. Ross was considered one of the top values on the board prior to his injury, as +1000 odds and a full season as Trevor Lawrence’s undisputed number one receiver would have undoubtedly boosted his draft stock.
With Ross effectively out of contention, Moore and Bateman become the most interesting names on the board. Moore has the talent and desired traits to convince a team to draft him over Chase, but he will need to prove his health by having an excellent season. Bateman is a terrific receiver with elite route-running skills who can quickly ascend to the top of the position’s ranks if Chase and/or Moore falter.
Moore is more likely to become the first receiver taken. As such, the suggested play here is to drop two units on Chase and one on Moore. If you desire to place no more than one unit on this particular prop, consider .67 of a unit on Chase and .33 on Moore. There is every reason to hedge your bets with what looks like the two actual favorites to be the first wide receiver selected in the 2021 NFL Draft.
Picks: Ja’Marr Chase (-125) and Rondale Moore (+800)
2021 NFL Draft Props: First Quarterback Selected
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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyContext.