2021 NHL Playoff Best Bets: Stanley Cup Winner
If you can believe it, we’re already three-quarters of the way through the abbreviated NHL season.
With the playoffs looming and set to kick off in about a month, it’s about time to start looking at playoff futures – namely Stanley Cup futures. This year is as wide open as any in recent memory, so I’m not looking as heavily at the top of the odds board. Instead, I’m keyed in on the teams who’ve played well all year long but aren’t getting as much respect from the books as they deserve.
Here are two teams that I’ve placed futures on to lift the greatest trophy in sports in 2021.
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New York Islanders (+1300)
It doesn’t matter how well the Islanders play. As long as Barry Trotz is behind the bench and Lou Lamoriello is running the front office, they’ll be looked at as a boring team who doesn’t have the star-power to push them over the top. So let’s use the public’s naivety to our advantage.
At +1300, the Islanders have implied odds of 7.14% to win the Stanley Cup, which I think is far too low. They’ve also got the sixth-shortest odds among the 31 NHL teams. Can you name five NHL teams better than the New York Islanders right now? Because I can’t. Moneypuck.com agrees, tabbing the Islanders with the third-best odds to win the title this year, and giving them an 8.9% chance to do so. We’ve got a nearly 2% edge, so we’re getting great value.
New York is known as a lock-down defensive team, and they certainly can clog up the ice, but they’re also fourth in the NHL in GF% (57.14) and xGF% (53.97). They’re not only getting the majority of chances, they’re converting.
Perhaps the most important aspect of this Islanders team is their incredible goaltending duo of Semyon Varlamov and Ilya Sorokin, and history has shown that the team who hoists the Cup is usually the team with the hottest goaltender(s). Just ask the Tampa Bay Lightning and St. Louis Blues, most recently. Sorokin owns a 2.17 GAA and a .915 SV%, while Varlamov, who is technically the “starterâ€, owns a 2.21 GAA and .922 SV%. In short, both of these guys are outstanding, and what a luxury it is for Trotz to be able to play both and keep both fresh.
I also love what the Islanders did at the deadline, acquiring Kyle Palmieri and Travis Zajac from the New Jersey Devils. While he doesn’t identically replace Anders Lee, Palmieri provides a scoring punch the team desperately needed. And Zajac was essentially born to play for Barry Trotz. He’s a tremendous defensive-minded forward who makes a living shutting down the opponent’s top line.
New York can roll four lines with no issues, and their heavy style of play is a nightmare to play against in a seven-game series.
Carolina Hurricanes (+1100)
Rod Brind’Amour built this Carolina Hurricanes team to be a carbon copy of what Rod Brind’Amour was as a player. Tough, hard-nosed, difficult to play against, and absolutely relentless from the opening puck drop to the final whistle.
Carolina, like the Islanders, can roll four lines with no problem, and can expect production from each and every one of them. Also like the Islanders, they’ve got the luxury of a multi-goaltender system, which will pay dividends in the playoffs. Petr Mrazek will be their “starter†once the postseason rolls around, and despite injuries limiting him to just seven appearances, he’s absolutely dazzled in limited ice time. He owns an astonishing 1.47 GAA and .943 SV%, and since he missed so much time, he’ll be the most well-rested netminder in the postseason.
The Hurricanes can also help keep Mrazek fresh by turning to either of the two of their reliable backups. Alex Nedeljkovic, who was on waivers earlier this year, is the only goaltender to play in 15 games and have a GAA of below 2.00, and James Reimer, despite a few tough outings, still owns a 2.68 GAA and .907 SV%.
Carolina’s underlying metrics are great as well. They’re third in CF% (54.32), fifth in xGF% (55.07), and sixth in SCF% (53.71), and they’ve got four legitimate defensemen who can contribute both offense and defense.
Many may be scared off by the Hurricanes’ daunting path to the Stanley Cup Final, but it’s actually less intimidating than you might think. If they win the Central Division, they’ll play either Nashville or Chicago (maybe Dallas, but probably not) in the first round. I know it’s the playoffs and anything can happen, but none of those teams pose a threat to Carolina.
The two other heavyweights in the division, Tampa Bay and Florida, are both without quite possibly their best player. The Panthers lost defenseman Aaron Ekblad to a gruesome leg injury, and the Lightning have been without Nikita Kucherov all year. Some expect him back for the postseason, but even if he is back and as great of a player as he is, he’s not going to be able to step on the ice and magically turn into the Nikita Kucherov we’re all used to seeing. It takes time to get back in the swing of things, especially in this COVID environment.
Nobody wants to play a team full of Rod Brind’Amours in a seven-game series, so they’re a great bet to get over the hump and win the Stanley Cup.
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