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2022 College Football Win Total Projections, Odds & Picks: AAC

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In the article below, college football expert Thor Nystrom projects the spread for every game using his ATL system (Adjusted Thor Spread). These spreads are from the perspective of the team in question — i.e., Army is a +2.5 underdog at Coastal Carolina and a -5 favorite hosting UTSA.

Here are his total win projections, odds, and picks for the AAC

Cincinnati Bearcats
Thor’s Preseason Power Ranking: 24 out of 131

Away Home Day Spread Win odds
Cincinnati Arkansas Sat, Sept 3 2.5 0.455
Kennesaw State Cincinnati Sat, Sep 10 -41 1
Miami (OH) Cincinnati Sat, Sep 17 -18.5 1
Indiana Cincinnati Sat, Sep 24 -19.5 1
Cincinnati Tulsa Sat, Oct 1 -16.5 0.998
South Florida Cincinnati Sat, Oct 8 -21.5 1
Cincinnati SMU Sat, Oct 22 -4.5 0.673
Cincinnati UCF Sat, Oct 29 -1 0.513
Navy Cincinnati Sat, Nov 5 -23.5 1
East Carolina Cincinnati Fri, Nov 11 -15.5 0.963
Cincinnati Temple Sat, Nov 19 -26 1
Tulsa Cincinnati Sat, Nov 26 -20.5 1

 

What will the Bearcats do for an encore after becoming the first G5 team to make the CFP? The first order of business is replacing a school-record nine NFL Draft picks. Offensively, the productive trio of QB Desmond Ridder (R3), RB Jerome Ford (R5), and WR Alec Pierce (R2) have moved on. The Bearcats re-imported former Cincy signee QB Ben Bryant from EMU – where Bryant had fled to escape Ridder’s shadow – to compete with four-star Evan Prater. RB Corey Kiner, a local kid who originally signed with LSU, is likely to be this year’s bellcow.

The defense ranks only No. 108 in the country in returning production, per ESPN’s Bill Connelly. The pass defense, in particular, got decimated, losing CB Sauce Gardner (No. 4 overall), CB Coby Bryant (R4) and S Bryan Cook (R2), along with the team’s best pass-rusher EDGE Myjai Sanders (R3). HC Luke Fickell added a top-25 recruiting class and multiple P5 transfers to plug holes – will it be enough to stave off a sharp regression?

  • Thor’s projected win total: 10.6
  • Las Vegas win total: 9
  • Thor’s bet: OVER

I’m a little confused by this win total. Sure, Cincy has to replace numerous high-impact starters on both offense and defense. But Bryant or Prater should provide strong QB play, Kiner should approximate Ford’s contributions and the defense still has numerous pieces. My numbers project Cincy as an underdog in only one game – 2.5-point dogs in the opener at Arkansas. Outside of that, this is a very manageable schedule, with Cincy projected as double-digit favorites in nine-of-11 to close the season. The other landmines are road games at SMU and UCF. But even if Cincy loses to Arkansas, SMU and UCF, they’d still push on this number. That offers a ton of security for over bettors.

UCF Knights
Thor’s Preseason Power Ranking: 40 out of 131

Away Home Day Spread Win odds
South Carolina State UCF Thur, Sep 1 -37.0 1
Louisville UCF Fri, Sep 9 1.0 0.488
UCF Florida Atlantic Sat, Sep 17 -16.5 0.998
Georgia Tech UCF Sat, Sep 24 -13.5 0.9
SMU UCF Sat, Oct 1 -6.5 0.724
Temple UCF Thur, Oct 13 -28.5 1
UCF East Carolina Sat, Oct 22 -7.5 0.781
Cincinnati UCF Sat, Oct 29 1.0 0.488
UCF Memphis Sat, Nov 5 -6.0 0.707
UCF Tulsa Sat, Nov 12 -13.0 0.893
Navy UCF Sat, Nov 19 -20.0 1
UCF South Florida Fri, Nov 25 -13.0 0.893

 

HC Gus Malzahn went 9-4 in his first season at UCF, including 7-0 at home. This, despite losing star QB Dillon Gabriel to a season-ending injury in Week 3, forcing Malzahn to cobble things together on offense. With 17 starters back this fall, Malzahn has got a real shot to up the wins into the double-digits in year No. 2. Much of that will be decided by if former Mississippi QB/WR John Rhys Plumlee can give Malzahn a Nick Marshall-like presence for his up-tempo offense (Gabriel transferred to Oklahoma). Plumlee’s in an excellent spot to start quickly with almost all of UCF’s pieces back on offense around him.

The defense returns eight starters. The biggest offseason loss was DT Big Cat Bryant to graduation. But UCF has three returning linemen with starting experience for its 3-3-5 defense. The secondary, which returns five starters, is a tremendous strength. The Knights have the best secondary in the G5 and arguably a top-10 secondary nationally.

  • Thor’s projected win total: 9.9
  • Las Vegas win total: 8.5
  • Thor’s bet: OVER

This number is lower than Gus Malzahn’s win total in year No. 1 when he played most of the season with his backup quarterback – it’s confusingly light. UCF’s two-toughest games are at home, and they’re both pure coin flips – Louisville and Cincinnati. My numbers project the Knights as favorites of five points or more in every other game, including seven games as projected favs of 13.5 or more. I love the over.

Houston Cougars
Thor’s Preseason Power Ranking: 43 out of 131

Away Home Day Spread Win odds
Houston UTSA Sat, Sep 3 -7.5 0.781
Houston Texas Tech Sat, Sep 10 0 0.5
Kansas Houston Sat, Sep 17 -16 0.981
Rice Houston Sat, Sep 24 -25.5 1
Tulane Houston Fri, Sep 30 -8 0.791
Houston Memphis Fri, Oct 7 -4 0.658
Houston Navy Sat, Oct 22 -12 0.885
South Florida Houston Sat, Oct 29 -16 0.981
Houston SMU Sat, Nov 5 1.5 0.475
Temple Houston Sat, Nov 12 -26 1
Houston East Carolina Sat, Nov 19 -5.5 0.69
Tulsa Houston Fri, Nov 25 -15 0.956

 

The Cougars return 13 starters from last season’s 12-2 squad. The passing offense will be fabulous, with QB Clayton Tune and WR Tank Dell back. Houston’s run game suffered a blow in the spring when touted sophomore RB Alton McCaskill tore his ACL – he might miss the entire season. The offensive line is a question mark after losing three starters. A former MTSU starter and a former touted Texas signee were pulled from the portal to address that, but was it enough?

Last year’s defense was a revelation, one of the most surprising unit performances in all of college football. Now, standouts DL Logan Hall (R2), EDGE David Anenih (UDFA), and CBs Marcus Jones (R3) and Damarion Williams (R4) must be replaced. The Cougars can’t help but regress a bit defensively in 2022.

  • Thor’s projected win total: 9.7
  • Las Vegas win total: 9
  • Thor’s bet: Pass

Houston kicks off non-conference play with two difficult road games. After that, Houston is a projected favorite of at least 12 points in six-of-10 games to close the season. There’s a broad band of outcomes in play, with half the schedule featuring projected spreads of one-possession or pick ‘em. The Cougars could finish anywhere between 6-6 and 12-0. Since I have questions about the restructured offensive line and new-look defense and am concerned about the loss of McCaskill, I’m going to pass.

SMU Mustangs
Thor’s Preseason Power Ranking: 47 out of 131

Away Home Day Spread Win odds
SMU North Texas Sat, Sep 3 -10 0.836
Lamar SMU Sat, Sep 10 -35 1
SMU Maryland Sat, Sep 17 1.5 0.475
TCU SMU Sat, Sep 24 1.5 0.475
SMU UCF Sat, Oct 1 6.5 0.277
Navy SMU Fri, Oct 14 -16.5 0.998
Cincinnati SMU Sat, Oct 22 4.5 0.327
SMU Tulsa Sat, Oct 29 -9 0.807
Houston SMU Sat, Nov 5 -1.5 0.525
SMU South Florida Sat, Nov 12 -9 0.807
SMU Tulane Thur, Nov 17 -1 0.513
Memphis SMU Sat, Nov 26 -8 0.791

 

Former HC Sonny Dykes left for TCU after going 25-10 in his last three years. Dykes’ teams had a penchant for starting quick and fading down the stretch. In the aforementioned three years, the Ponies went 6-9 combined in their last five games of each season – and 19-1 leading up to that. New HC Rhett Lashlee welcomes back 13 starters, including veteran starter QB Tanner Mordecai. Lashlee likes to run more than his predecessor and prioritized nabbing former Alabama five-star RB Camar Wheaton in the portal. The receiving corps lost WR Danny Gray and Reggie Roberson, along with TE Grant Calcaterra, to the NFL, while smooth pass-catching RB Ulysses Bentley transferred to Mississippi.

The defense didn’t lose that kind of star power. Seven starters return on that side of the ball. Particularly encouraging for a team that has struggled for years to defend the pass is the return of seven-of-the-top-eight on the two-deep. Lashlee also signed a pair of FBS transfers in the defensive backfield to bolster the secondary further.

  • Thor’s projected win total: 7.8
  • Las Vegas win total: 7
  • Thor’s bet: OVER

My numbers project SMU as single-digit underdogs in four games (all by less than a touchdown) and very short favorites in two others. In the other six games, my numbers project SMU as favorites of eight points or more. I have my concerns about this team, but if I’m betting against a flat-7 number, I’m taking the over. SMU is going at least 6-6, and it doesn’t have a sure-loss on the schedule, presenting a much higher ceiling.

Tulane Green Wave
Thor’s Preseason Power Ranking: 62 out of 131

Away Home Day Spread Win odds
UMass Tulane Sat, Sep 3 -26.5 1
Alcorn State Tulane Sat, Sep 10 -30.5 1
Tulane Kansas State Sat, Sep 17 6.5 0.277
Southern Miss Tulane Sat, Sep 24 -12.5 0.887
Tulane Houston Fri, Sep 30 8 0.209
East Carolina Tulane Sat, Oct 8 -5 0.681
Tulane South Florida Sat, Oct 15 -5.5 0.69
Memphis Tulane Sat, Oct 22 -4 0.658
Tulane Tulsa Sat, Nov 5 -5.5 0.69
UCF Tulane Sat, Nov 12 4.5 0.327
SMU Tulane Thur, Nov 17 1 0.488
Tulane Cincinnati Sat, Nov 26 13.5 0.1

 

There are two diametrically-opposed ways of viewing 2022 Tulane.

Option 1:  A team with an experienced staff qualified for a bowl in three-of-the-last four seasons returns an incredible 18 starters. Not only that, but zero NFL talent departed. The offense returns nine starters, including QB Michael Pratt, RB Tyjae Spears and four of five offensive linemen. The defense also returns nine starters. That unit struggled in the first half of 2021 but was the No. 2 defense in the AAC over the final six games. In addition, Tulane signed a strong transfer crop in the portal. Last year’s team faced 10 bowl teams – that’s virtually assured of not happening again. This team has a real shot at becoming HC Willie Fritz’s first eight-win team in New Orleans.

Option 2:  Most of the cast of characters return from last year’s disastrous 2-10 outfit – is that a good thing? The offensive line returns four starters, sure, but those are four starters from a unit that was an enormous disappointment in 2021. QB Michael Pratt has darkhorse NFL potential, but he was injured throughout last season and has a history of concussions. Tough kid who is only one play away from missing multiple games, which would likely tank the offense with only freshmen on scholarship behind him. The defense has a ton of experience returning, but that unit got torched by almost every solid offense it faced last year. This team has a real shot at getting Fritz fired.

Thor’s projected win total: 7.0
Las Vegas win total: 6
Thor’s bet: Pass

Tulane is going to start 2-0. After that, anything is in play. ATL projects Tulane to be a 12.5-point favorite in one game and a 13.5-point underdog in another – the other eight games feature lines of eight points or less either way. This is a fascinating proposition of a team that could go either way, facing a high-variance schedule. My numbers lean over, but I wouldn’t touch this with a 10-foot pole.

Here’s my only prediction:  Tulane either goes over or under this total by at least two. Whichever direction this goes, I think it’s going to be emphatic. I’m not touching it.

Memphis Tigers
Thor’s Preseason Power Ranking: 66 out of 131

Away Home Day Spread Win odds
Memphis Mississippi State Sat, Sep 3 13 0.107
Memphis Navy Sat, Sep 10 -5 0.681
Arkansas State Memphis Sat, Sep 17 -14.5 0.949
North Texas Memphis Sat, Sep 24 -10.5 0.86
Temple Memphis Sat, Oct 1 -19.5 1
Houston Memphis Fri, Oct 7 4 0.342
Memphis East Carolina Sat, Oct 15 1 0.488
Memphis Tulane Sat, Oct 22 4 0.342
UCF Memphis Sat, Nov 5 6 0.294
Tulsa Memphis Thur, Nov 10 -8.5 0.802
North Alabama Memphis Sat, Nov 19 -29 1
Memphis SMU Sat, Nov 26 8 0.209

 

Memphis averaged 9.5 wins per season during Mike Norvell’s four-year run. HC Ryan Silverfield is now 14-9 over two years since replacing him, including 6-6 last year. Silverfield’s Memphis teams haven’t passed the eye test. We should get a referendum on his tenure in year No. 3, with 13 starters back, including the starting quarterback and running back, and high-impact transfer RB Jay Ducker from Northern Illinois.

The defense allowed 29.3 PPG last year and lost five starters over the offseason. That defense now transitions from a three-man front under former DC Mike McIntire (who took the FIU job) to a 4-3 under new DC Matt Barnes, the former Ohio State secondary coach. Barnes’ defense will feature a two-high look, with one of the safeties given the freedom to crash down at will. Though Memphis will break in three new starters up front, it does return both starting safeties.

  • Thor’s projected win total: 7.1
  • Las Vegas win total: 7.5
  • Thor’s bet: UNDER

The win total – and perhaps even Silverfield’s continued employment – will be determined by a four-game stretch against Houston, ECU, Tulane and UCF. ATL projects Memphis as underdogs in each game, but none by more than six points. Over bettors should hope Memphis has reached eight wins through the first 11 games with a road finale at SMU looming. I’m going under.

ECU Pirates
Thor’s Preseason Power Ranking: 71 out of 131

Away Home Day Spread Win odds
NC State East Carolina Sat, Sep 3 13.5 0.1
Old Dominion East Carolina Sat, Sep 10 -10.5 0.86
Campbell East Carolina Sat, Sep 17 -27 1
Navy East Carolina Sat, Sep 24 -10 0.836
East Carolina South Florida Sat, Oct 1 -4 0.658
East Carolina Tulane Sat, Oct 8 5 0.319
Memphis East Carolina Sat, Oct 15 0 0.5
UCF East Carolina Sat, Oct 22 7.5 0.219
East Carolina BYU Fri, Oct 28 15.5 0.037
East Carolina Cincinnati Fri, Nov 11 15.5 0.037
Houston East Carolina Sat, Nov 19 5.5 0.311
East Carolina Temple Fri, Nov 25 -12.5 0.887

 

HC Mike Houston broke through with a 7-5 campaign last year after going 7-14 over his first two years. The Pirates will likely be even better this fall, returning 15 starters. The only player of note that departed on offense was slot WR Tyler Snead, who shockingly declared for the draft early and predictably went undrafted. The outstanding backfield duo of QB Holton Ahlers/RB Keaton Mitchell returns behind what should be the best offensive line of the Houston era.

Last season, with 10 starters returning on defense, ECU cut its PPG allowed from 35.4 to 26.3. With eight starters returning this fall, ECU has a shot to cut that number lower. To do that, a secondary which lost second-team All-American CB Ja’Quan McMillian will have to come together. But oodles of experience return along the front seven.

  • Thor’s projected win total: 5.8
  • Las Vegas win total: 6.5
  • Thor’s bet: Pass

I like this ECU team a lot, but the schedule does them little favors. True, ECU has the luxury of kicking off with four-straight home games. But the Pirates also play the third-toughest schedule in the entire G5, according to Phil Steele. ECU is a projected double-digit underdog in OOC games against NC State and BYU, and teams like Cincinnati, UCF, Houston, Memphis and Tulane await in AAC play. My numbers strongly lean towards an under bet, but I will pass out of respect for Houston.

Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Thor’s Preseason Power Ranking: 90 out of 131

Away Home Day Spread Win odds
Tulsa Wyoming Sat, Sep 3 3 0.406
Northern Illinois Tulsa Sat, Sep 10 -2 0.535
Jacksonville State Tulsa Sat, Sep 17 -21 1
Tulsa Mississippi Sat, Sep 24 22 0
Cincinnati Tulsa Sat, Oct 1 16.5 0.002
Tulsa Navy Sat, Oct 8 1 0.488
Tulsa Temple Fri, Oct 21 -8 0.791
SMU Tulsa Sat, Oct 29 9 0.193
Tulane Tulsa Sat, Nov 5 5.5 0.311
Tulsa Memphis Thur, Nov 10 8.5 0.198
South Florida Tulsa Fri, Nov 18 -2.5 0.545
Tulsa Houston Fri, Nov 25 15 0.044

 

HC Philip Montgomery’s tenure included a 10-3 year No. 2, a 9-27 rut in the three years that followed, and a 13-9 bounceback over the last two seasons. Last year’s team started 3-6 before ripping off four-consecutive wins to close the season. Nine of Tulsa’s games were decided by one possession, and the Golden Hurricane found themselves on the right side of a couple of coin flips.

The offense and defense return six starters apiece. The offense lost WR Josh Johnson, but he should be neatly replaced by WR Keylon Stokes, back following a season-ending injury in 2021. The secondary returns three starters and should be solid. The lingering question is how Tulsa’s front will hold up with three new front-six starters being broken into the 3-3-5 scheme.

  • Thor’s projected win total: 4.5
  • Las Vegas win total: 6
  • Thor’s bet: UNDER

My numbers project Tulsa as favorites in only four games – and only double-digit favorites in one. Conversely, ATL pegs Tulsa as underdogs of 8.5-or-more-points in five different games. If Tulsa goes 0-5 in those games, they’d have to win out to go over. Last year’s team went 7-6 with multiple razor-tight wins. This year’s team might be just as talented, but a demanding schedule and normalization of luck alone will push them out of bowl season. That’s what I see coming.

South Florida Bulls
Thor’s Preseason Power Ranking: 93 out of 131

Away Home Day Spread Win odds
BYU South Florida Sat, Sep 3 16.5 0.002
Howard South Florida Sat, Sep 10 -21 1
South Florida Florida Sat, Sep 17 21.5 0
South Florida Louisville Sat, Sep 24 21 0
East Carolina South Florida Sat, Oct 1 3.5 0.357
South Florida Cincinnati Sat, Oct 8 21.5 0
Tulane South Florida Sat, Oct 15 5.5 0.311
South Florida Houston Sat, Oct 29 16 0.019
South Florida Temple Sat, Nov 5 -7 0.752
SMU South Florida Sat, Nov 12 9 0.193
South Florida Tulsa Fri, Nov 18 2.5 0.455
UCF South Florida Fri, Nov 25 13 0.107

 

This, right here, is USF HC Jeff Scott’s shot. He’s gone 3-18 over his first two years. But this year’s squad has 19 returning starters. Quarterback play has been a real issue during Scott’s tenure, but that shouldn’t be an issue this fall after USF imported 2021 Baylor starting QB Gerry Bohanon from the transfer portal. Bohanon has his flaws, but he’s a dual-threat QB who can push the ball down the field.

Every position on this team has improved in some way. No NFL talent was lost, and so many players are back. Defensively, both tackles must be replaced, but everybody else returns. Last year’s defense quietly lopped over five PPG allowed off their ledger. It will be a surprise if this unit doesn’t improve again with nine starters back.

  • Thor’s projected win total: 3.2
  • Las Vegas win total: 4.5
  • Thor’s bet: UNDER

Scott has to feel much better about the team heading into this season than he did with his first two. But he’s about to confront a brutal schedule – Phil Steele ranks it as the second-hardest in the G5. The OOC games probably has three losses between BYU, Florida and Louisville. The conference schedule isn’t a picnic either, with road games at Cincinnati and Houston and home games against ECU, Tulane and SMU. ATL projects USF as underdogs of at least 13 points in six games. It’s difficult to envision the road to five wins, so I have to go under.

Navy Midshipmen
Thor’s Preseason Power Ranking: 100 out of 131

Away Home Day Spread Win odds
Delaware Navy Sat, Sep 3 -21 1
Memphis Navy Sat, Sep 10 5 0.319
Navy East Carolina Sat, Sep 24 10 0.164
Navy Air Force Sat, Oct 1 12.5 0.113
Tulsa Navy Sat, Oct 8 -1 0.513
Navy SMU Fri, Oct 14 16.5 0.002
Houston Navy Sat, Oct 22 12 0.116
Temple Navy Sat, Oct 29 -11.5 0.882
Navy Cincinnati Sat, Nov 5 23.5 0
Navy Notre Dame Sat, Nov 12 25.5 0
Navy UCF Sat, Nov 19 20 0
Navy Army Sat, Dec 10 7.5 0.219

 

Can Navy get going again? If you take out the 11-2 season with former QB Malcolm Perry in 2019, the Mids are 10-25 since 2018. This team goes as far as its rushing attack will take it every year. Last year, Navy averaged a meager 3.9 YPC (while finishing dead-last in the country in passing). The defense got stranded in some bad spots. Half of the losses during the 4-8 campaign came by one possession, but that was of little consolation.

HC Ken Niumatalolo returns his starting quarterback and three starting offensive linemen this fall. Navy lost its top-three runners. Though the returning backs are quick and agile, Navy appears to lack a between-the-tackles hammer back. The defense has fewer questions, with six starters returning. Last year’s unit was strong against the run but had a mediocre pass defense with zero pass-rush to speak of.

  • Thor’s projected win total: 3.3
  • Las Vegas win total: 4.5
  • Thor’s bet: Pass

Above, I mentioned the teams that play Phil Steele’s second- and third-hardest G5 schedules. Navy plays the hardest. The non-con features games away from home against Air Force, Notre Dame and Army. In conference play, my numbers only favor Navy in two games. Last year’s team was better than a typical 4-8 team, resulting from a brutal schedule (11 opponents earned bowl bids) and four close losses. If Navy is tangibly improved, some of those close losses will turn into close wins. My numbers say take the under, but I’m going to pass.

Temple Owls
Thor’s Preseason Power Ranking: 124 out of 131

Away Home Day Spread Win odds
Temple Duke Fri, Sep 2 8 0.209
Lafeyette Temple Sat, Sep 10 -12.5 0.887
Rutgers Temple Sat, Sep 17 11.5 0.118
UMass Temple Sat, Sep 24 -8.5 0.802
Temple Memphis Sat, Oct 1 19.5 0
Temple UCF Thur, Oct 13 28.5 0
Tulsa Temple Fri, Oct 21 8 0.209
Temple Navy Sat, Oct 29 12 0.116
South Florida Temple Sat, Nov 5 7 0.248
Temple Houston Sat, Nov 12 26 0
Cincinnati Temple Sat, Nov 19 26 0
East Carolina Temple Sat, Nov 26 12.5 0.113

 

Former HC Rod Carey enjoyed great success with Dave Doeren’s recruits at Northern Illinois before falling off. The same thing happened at Temple, but the fall was steeper and quicker, with an 8-5 record in 2019, with Geoff Collins’ recruits giving way to a 4-15 debacle over the past two years. Mercifully, Carey was fired. Former Texas associate head coach and run game coordinator Stan Drayton takes over, the sixth Temple head coach over the last seven years.

Drayton has one thing going for him: 14 returning starters. On the other hand, Temple finished in the bottom 10 of the nation in offense, defense and special teams last year. For the team to improve, it simply must get better play from former Georgia four-star QB D’Wan Mathis. Mathis has often flashed promise, interspersed with long periods of questionable decisions and errant accuracy. The defense allowed 37.5 PPG last year. Most of last year’s cast of characters returns, but they’re now learning a new defensive scheme

  • Thor’s projected win total: 2.7
  • Las Vegas win total: 2.5
  • Thor’s bet: Pass

Temple has two highly-winnable matchups, both of which it could be a touchdown-plus favorite in – home games against FCS Lafayette and UMass. But my numbers project Temple as at least a touchdown underdog in the other 10 games on the schedule. Getting rid of Carey and returning 14 starters is likely to lead to at least a little improvement. I’m just not sure that’ll manifest in three wins.

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