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2022 College Football Win Total Projections, Odds & Picks: CUSA

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In the article below, college football expert Thor Nystrom projects the spread for every game using his ATL system (Adjusted Thor Spread). These spreads are from the perspective of the team in question — i.e., Army is a +2.5 underdog at Coastal Carolina and a -5 favorite hosting UTSA.

Here are his total win projections, odds, and picks for the Conference USA (CUSA).

UAB Blazers
Thor’s Preseason Power Ranking: 60 out of 131

Away Home Day Spread Win odds
Alabama A&M UAB Thur, Sep 1 -31 1
UAB Liberty Sat, Sep 10 0 0.5
Georgia Southern UAB Sat, Sep 17 -17.5 1
UAB Rice Sat, Oct 1 -15.5 0.963
Middle Tennessee UAB Sat, Oct 8 -12 0.885
Charlotte UAB Sat, Oct 15 -17.5 1
UAB WKU Fri, Oct 21 1 0.488
UAB Florida Atlantic Sat, Oct 29 -9.5 0.811
UTSA UAB Sat, Nov 5 -7.5 0.781
North Texas UAB Sat, Nov 12 -12.5 0.887
UAB LSU Sat, Nov 19 15 0.044
UAB Louisiana Tech Sat, Nov 26 -9 0.807

 

The architect of UAB’s have-to-see-it-to-believe-it turnaround from canceled program to perennial bowl entrant – HC Bill Clark – stepped down in late June due to a medical issue. UAB turned the interim reins over to OC/assistant HC Bryant Vincent. If that change doesn’t affect the Blazers’ on-field performance, UAB will be very good in Vincent’s first year.

The defense is one of the best in the G5. Eight starters return from a unit that ranked No. 16 in total defense last year. The Blazers’ defense is so tough to deal with because it takes away your run game and forces you to become predictably one-dimensional to move the ball (UAB’s run defense ranked No. 11 last year). The offense returns three pillars – QB Dylan Hopkins, RB DeWayne McBride and WR Trea Shropshire – along with three starters on the offensive line (and a ton of experience on the two-deep). UAB has all the pieces they need to control the clock and the tempo of most games.

  • Thor’s projected win total: 9.2
  • Las Vegas win total: 8.5
  • Thor’s bet: OVER

UAB is likely to lose at LSU, but the rest of this schedule is extremely manageable. The next two toughest games feature projected ATL lines of UAB +1 (at WKU) and pick ‘em (at Liberty). My numbers project UAB as at least nine-point favorites in the other nine games. UAB has a real shot at double-digit regular season wins – I’m taking the over.

UTSA Roadrunners
Thor’s Preseason Power Ranking: 80 out of 131

Away Home Day Spread Win odds
Houston UTSA Sat, Sep 3 9 0.193
UTSA Army Sat, Sep 10 3.5 0.357
UTSA Texas Sat, Sep 17 21.5 0
Texas Southern UTSA Sat, Sep 24 -24.5 1
UTSA Middle Tennessee Fri, Sep 30 -1 0.513
WKU UTSA Sat, Oct 8 0 0.5
UTSA FIU Fri, Oct 14 -18.5 1
North Texas UTSA Sat, Oct 22 -7 0.752
UTSA UAB Sat, Nov 5 7.5 0.219
Louisiana Tech UTSA Sat, Nov 12 -9 0.807
UTSA Rice Sat, Nov 19 -11.5 0.882
UTEP UTSA Sat, Nov 26 -10.5 0.86

 

UTSA is coming off a triumphant 12-2 season (with one of those losses coming in a game that didn’t mean anything to them pre-CUSA title game). Last year’s offense set the school record with 36.9 PPG (No. 11). Despite losing star RB Sincere McCormick, this unit should be just as good. Eight starters return – including all-CUSA honorees QB Frank Harris and WR Zakhari Franklin – and UTSA added former Arkansas RB Trelon Smith to replace McCormick.

Where this team will likely fall off is on defense. Last year’s group finished No. 58 in total defense – but with pronounced splits. The run defense was a solid No. 14, but the pass defense was an abysmal No. 105. That was with NFL Draft pick CB Tariq Woolen. Three starters must be replaced in the secondary. HC Jeff Traylor threw multiple transfer-portal darts at that position group over the offseason. Traylor needs multiple hits on those dice-rolls to trust his pass defense again.

  • Thor’s projected win total: 7.1
  • Las Vegas win total: 8.5
  • Thor’s bet: UNDER

I like this UTSA team fine, but this win total is inflated based on last year’s results. The OOC schedule doesn’t help. Games against Texas and Houston are probably both losses, and UTSA will be an underdog at Army. Lose those three, and you must go undefeated in conference play to go over. The problem is that ATL projects UTSA to have two pick ‘em games in CUSA play and install the Roadrunners as a 7.5-point underdog at UAB. We must go under.

UTEP Miners
Thor’s Preseason Power Ranking: 109 out of 131

Away Home Day Spread Win odds
North Texas UTEP Sat, Aug 27 2 0.465
UTEP Oklahoma Sat, Sep 3 31 0
NMSU UTEP Sat, Sep 10 -13 0.893
UTEP New Mexico Sat, Sep 17 -10.5 0.86
Boise State UTEP Fri, Sep 23 13.5 0.1
UTEP Charlotte Sat, Oct 1 1 0.488
UTEP Louisiana Tech Sat, Oct 8 4 0.342
Florida Atlantic UTEP Sat, Oct 22 0 0.5
Middle Tennessee UTEP Sat, Oct 29 2.5 0.455
UTEP Rice Thur, Nov 3 -3 0.594
FIU UTEP Sat, Nov 19 -14 0.924
UTEP UTSA Sat, Nov 26 10.5 0.14

 

Last season, the Miners qualified for a bowl for only the third time in 16 years. UTEP went 0-6 against teams that finished in the top-93 in my final numbers and 7-0 against teams ranked lower. This year, UTEP is scheduled to play nine opponents I rank 91st-or-lower – and seven below No. 100. The team returns 15 starters, including QB Gavin Hardison. The passing offense ranked No. 3 in EPA/play last fall and should be good again.

The defensive front is very strong. The 4-2-5 scheme returns all six starters along the defensive line and the linebacking corps. That should ensure that the run defense (No. 43) remains solid and that the Miners continue to get after the quarterback (four defenders who recorded double-digit TFL last year return). The biggest question is in the secondary: Two nickel backs with experience return, but both outside corners and safeties must be replaced.

  • Thor’s projected win total: 5.8
  • Las Vegas win total: 5.5
  • Thor’s bet: OVER

In lieu of this year’s soft schedule and the fact that UTEP handled its poor opponents last year, I’m a bit surprised the Vegas number dropped beneath “6.” That said, ATL’s adjusted win total falls very close to the Vegas number at 5.7. That’s largely because in five different games, ATL projects lines of between pick ‘em to a four-point disadvantage. Going over will require UTEP to go 2-3 or 3-2 in those games (depending on the result of the MTSU game). I’m following a personal conviction in going over.

WKU Hilltoppers
Thor’s Preseason Power Ranking: 68 out of 131

Away Home Day Spread Win odds
Austin Peay WKU Sat, Aug 27 -28 1
WKU Hawaii Sat, Sep 3 -10.5 0.86
WKU Indiana Sat, Sep 17 -2 0.535
FIU WKU Sat, Sep 24 -26 1
Troy WKU Sat, Oct 1 -4 0.658
WKU UTSA Sat, Oct 8 0 0.5
WKU Middle Tennessee Sat, Oct 15 -3.5 0.643
UAB WKU Fri, Oct 21 -1 0.513
North Texas WKU Sat, Oct 29 -10 0.836
WKU Charlotte Sat, Nov 5 -10 0.836
Rice WKU Sat, Nov 12 -19 1
WKU Auburn Sat, Nov 19 16 0.019
WKU Florida Atlantic Sat, Nov 26 -7.5 0.781

 

Football is a copy-cat sport. WKU HC Tyson Helton did something so brilliant last offseason that he’s already been copied (by Wazzu):  Import the most critical elements from a dominant FCS offense and unleash them on the FBS. But now that QB Bailey Zappe, WR Jerreth Sterns and OC Zach Kittley have moved on, can the Hilltoppers field a dominant offense again with a whole new cast of characters?

Ben Arbuckle, Kittley’s former top lieutenant, is the new play-caller. His new QB is Jarrett Doege, whose winding career took him from Lubbock, Texas, to Bowling Green, to West Virginia before this one-year pitstop at WKU. The defense loses two-time CUSA DPOY EDGE DeAngelo Malone. But with six starters back, it shouldn’t fall off.

  • Thor’s projected win total: 9.2
  • Las Vegas win total: 8.5
  • Thor’s bet: OVER

The schedule unfolds nicely. It’s also important to note that WKU plays 13 games. It has only one sure loss, the game at Auburn. ATL projects WKU as double-digit favorites in six games and 7.5-point-or-great favorites in seven. This bet will be decided in the other four games – the ones ATL projects spreads of between pick’ em and WKU -3. If WKU can split those four games while not stubbing its toe in any of the seven they’ll be substantial favorites in, the Hilltoppers will go over the number.

North Texas Mean Green
Thor’s Preseason Power Ranking: 97 out of 131

Away Home Day Spread Win odds
North Texas UTEP Sat, Aug 27 -2 0.535
SMU North Texas Sat, Sep 3 10.5 0.14
Texas Southern North Texas Sat, Sep 10 -21 1
North Texas UNLV Sat, Sep 17 -2 0.535
North Texas Memphis Sat, Sep 24 11 0.129
Florida Atlantic North Texas Sat, Oct 1 -4.5 0.673
Louisiana Tech North Texas Sat, Oct 15 -4.5 0.673
North Texas UTSA Sat, Oct 22 7 0.248
North Texas WKU Sat, Oct 29 10 0.164
FIU North Texas Sat, Nov 5 -18.5 1
North Texas UAB Sat, Nov 12 12.5 0.113
Rice North Texas Sat, Nov 26 -11.5 0.882

 

HC Seth Littrell’s bizarre tenure added another riveting chapter last year. Littrell, who took over a 1-11 team, went 23-17 over his first three years. But he went 8-14 in Years four and five and then began last season 1-6. Presumably needing to win out to save his job, Littrell did just that, with the Mean Green ripping off a five-game winning streak to go bowling (a loss to Miami OH).

Littrell remains on the hot seat, but another bowl appearance should get him off it. His offense returns eight starters. The biggest loss was RB DeAndre Torrey – who helped the team finish No. 5 in rushing offense last year – to graduation. It would sure help if RB Oscar Adaway, last year’s presumed starter prior to injury, returns fully healthy from his torn ACL. The defense has more problems after losing EDGEs Gabriel and Grayson Murphy to UCLA via transfer. Only five starters return from a unit that was mediocre overall but excellent situationally last year (No. 12 rushing success rate).

  • Thor’s projected win total: 6.1
  • Las Vegas win total: 6.5
  • Thor’s bet: Pass

This bet comes down to the outcome of several unknowable factors:  Will new QB Grant Gunnell finally play up to his billing? Can the rushing attack remain strong without Torrey? Will last year’s bend-but-don’t-break defense be any better in the middle of the field, or will it regress on third-downs and in the red zone? This one could go either way.

Florida Atlantic Owls
Thor’s Preseason Power Ranking: 103 out of 131

Away Home Day Spread Win odds
Charlotte Florida Atlantic Sat, Aug 27 -4.5 0.673
Florida Atlantic Ohio Sat, Sep 3 -2.5 0.545
SE Louisiana Florida Atlantic Sat, Sep 10 -18 1
UCF Florida Atlantic Sat, Sep 17 16.5 0.002
Florida Atlantic Purdue Sat, Sep 24 20 0
Florida Atlantic North Texas Sat, Oct 1 4.5 0.327
Rice Florida Atlantic Sat, Oct 15 -8.5 0.802
Florida Atlantic UTEP Sat, Oct 22 0 0.5
UAB Florida Atlantic Sat, Oct 29 9.5 0.189
Florida Atlantic FIU Sat, Nov 12 -12 0.885
Florida Atlantic Middle Tennessee Sat, Nov 19 5.5 0.311
WKU Florida Atlantic Sat, Nov 26 7.5 0.219

 

In his first season in 2020, FAU HC Willie Taggart led the Owls to a 5-4 record and a bowl appearance. Last year, the Owls started 5-3 and needed only one win in the last four games to go bowling. FAU lost all four games by double-digits as the offense and defense collapsed simultaneously.

The biggest issue last year offensively was the offensive line. It struggled to protect QB N’Kosi Perry and didn’t consistently open holes in the running game. But with four starters along the line back, that group should be much-improved. Seven starters return on that side of the ball, making improvement likely. Defensively, only five starters return, and FAU will need to lean on transfers to plug holes. Last year’s unit finished a solid No. 58 in scoring defense but only No. 90 in total defense, featuring a feeble pass-rush.

  • Thor’s projected win total: 5.5
  • Las Vegas win total: 5.5
  • Thor’s bet: Pass

My adjusted win total falls smack-dab on the Las Vegas number. FAU projects to be a double-digit favorite in two games and double-digit underdogs in two others. Eight games have projected single-digit spreads, meaning this team has a wide range of outcomes – anywhere from 2-10 to 10-2. Since this one could go either way, we have to pass.

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
Thor’s Preseason Power Ranking: 94 out of 131

Away Home Day Spread Win odds
Middle Tennessee James Madison Sat, Sep 3 0 0.5
Middle Tennessee Colorado State Sat, Sep 10 0 0.5
Tennessee State Middle Tennessee Sat, Sep 17 -22 1
Middle Tennessee Miami Sat, Sep 24 26 0
UTSA Middle Tennessee Fri, Sep 30 1 0.488
Middle Tennessee UAB Sat, Oct 8 12 0.116
WKU Middle Tennessee Sat, Oct 15 3.5 0.357
Middle Tennessee UTEP Sat, Oct 29 -2.5 0.545
Middle Tennessee Louisiana Tech Sat, Nov 5 0 0.5
Charlotte Middle Tennessee Sat, Nov 12 -8.5 0.802
Florida Atlantic Middle Tennessee Sat, Nov 19 -5.5 0.69
Middle Tennessee FIU Sat, Nov 26 14 0.076

 

After going 7-14 between 2019-2020, MTSU returned to its winning ways with a 7-6 record last fall. With new OC Mitch Stewart calling the shots this year, MTSU is transitioning from a balanced spread offense to an Air Raid attack. Stewart has a tall task in year No. 1 with only two starters returning on offense. MTSU’s offensive line, in particular, got crushed by transfer portal defections.

Better news on defense:  Six starters return from a unit that led the FBS in takeaways per game and finished No. 2 in CUSA in TFL. MTSU will be very strong in the front seven. The secondary is another question, with only one starting defensive back returning. Can MTSU prevent pass defense regression?

  • Thor’s projected win total: 5.6
  • Las Vegas win total: 5.5
  • Thor’s bet: Pass

My projected win total is right in line with the Las Vegas number. And this one could truly go either way, depending on if the new offensive scheme spurs improvement on a unit with minimal experience returning. Nine different games have projected single-digit spreads, including four other games – one-third of the schedule – with projected spreads under a field goal. Classic stay-away.

Charlotte 49ers
Thor’s Preseason Power Ranking: 115 out of 131

Away Home Day Spread Win odds
Charlotte Florida Atlantic Sat, Aug 27 4.5 0.327
William & Mary Charlotte Fri, Sep 2 -15.5 0.963
Maryland Charlotte Sat, Sep 10 15 0.044
Charlotte Georgia State Sat, Sep 17 11 0.129
Charlotte South Carolina Sat, Sep 24 19 0
UTEP Charlotte Sat, Oct 1 -1 0.513
Charlotte UAB Sat, Oct 15 17.5 0
FIU Charlotte Sat, Oct 22 -13 0.893
Charlotte Rice Sat, Oct 29 -1.5 0.525
WKU Charlotte Sat, Nov 5 10 0.164
Charlotte Middle Tennessee Sat, Nov 12 8.5 0.198
Louisiana Tech Charlotte Sat, Nov 19 1 0.488

 

Like conference mate FAU, Charlotte blew a golden opportunity to go bowling last year. The 49ers started 4-2 but went just 1-5 down the stretch to get boxed out of the postseason. Last year’s defense was terrible (No. 120), but the offense was FBS average (No. 65), with the No. 48 passing attack. Here’s the good news: Eight starters return on that unit, including fifth-year starter QB Chris Reynolds.

HC Will Healy imported new DC Greg Brown to fix the stinky defense. The program intends to overhaul its coverage looks but keep the up-front stuff the same. The pass defense ranked second-to-last in the nation in both EPA/pass, and the total defense finished the same in 20-plus yard gains allowed – this was a necessary change. Charlotte has six starters back on defense, but three are in the secondary, giving hope to the idea that the pass defense will be improved.

  • Thor’s projected win total: 4.2
  • Las Vegas win total: 4.5
  • Thor’s bet: Pass

ATL projects Charlotte as double-digit favorites in two games but an underdog of at least 9.5 points in six others. The other four games all have projected spreads of 4.5-points or lower either way. Barring upsets, Charlotte will likely need to go 3-1 in those games to go over this number. We’re too close to the margins here to make a call one way or the other.

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
Thor’s Preseason Power Ranking: 104 out of 131

Away Home Day Spread Win odds
Louisiana Tech Missouri Thur, Sep 1 11.5 0.118
Stephen F. Austin Louisiana Tech Sat, Sep 10 -18.5 1
Louisiana Tech Clemson Sat, Sep 17 35 0
Louisiana Tech South Alabama Sat, Sep 24 1 0.488
UTEP Louisiana Tech Sat, Oct 8 -4 0.658
Louisiana Tech North Texas Sat, Oct 15 4.5 0.327
Rice Louisiana Tech Sat, Oct 22 -9.5 0.811
Louisiana Tech FIU Sat, Oct 29 -11.5 0.882
Middle Tennessee Louisiana Tech Sat, Nov 5 0 0.5
Louisiana Tech UTSA Sat, Nov 12 9 0.193
Louisiana Tech Charlotte Sat, Nov 19 -1 0.513
UAB Louisiana Tech Sat, Nov 26 8.5 0.198

 

Last year’s 3-9 finish cost long-time HC Skip Holtz his job. The Bulldogs imported Sonny Cumbie to replace him. Cumbie led Texas Tech to a bowl last year after taking over as the interim HC following the midseason firing of Matt Wells. Cumbie is an Air Raid disciple. His new receiving corps is stacked, and the left side of the offensive line is experienced and stout. The questions are at QB and the right side of the line.

Cumbie had an interesting strategy to his quarterback dilemma in an offseason where seemingly half the quarterbacks in the country switched schools. Instead of going after a big name, he imported two former pupils, fifth-year seniors Matthew Downing (TCU) and Parker McNeil (Texas Tech), to battle it out. Don’t put it past one of them to throw for over 4,000 yards this year:  The Air Raid requires experience and authority over reads, not necessarily a bazooka of an arm. Defensively, LTU finished No. 114 last year. But the Bulldogs returned eight starters and picked up multiple potential starters in the transfer portal, including a pair of former starters under ex-Stephen F. Austin DC Scott Power, the team’s new DC. LTU’s defense can’t help but be better this year.

  • Thor’s projected win total: 5.7
  • Las Vegas win total: 4.5
  • Thor’s bet: OVER

The books are pessimistic about Cumbie’s ability to start quickly in year No. 1. My numbers are not – we believe LTU has a decent shot at bowl eligibility this fall. I know the defense is going to be significantly improved. The question becomes the offense, and specifically if the new starter – both of whom rarely saw field times at their previous P5 schools – will be able to put up big numbers in year No. 1. I trust Cumbie’s ability to amp up the offense quickly.

Rice Owls
Thor’s Preseason Power Ranking: 123 out of 131

Away Home Day Spread Win odds
Rice USC Sat, Sep 3 29.5 0
McNeese Rice Sat, Sep 10 -12 0.885
Louisiana Rice Sat, Sep 17 12.5 0.113
Rice Houston Sat, Sep 24 27 0
UAB Rice Sat, Oct 1 15.5 0.037
Rice Florida Atlantic Sat, Oct 15 8.5 0.198
Rice Louisiana Tech Sat, Oct 22 9.5 0.189
Charlotte Rice Sat, Oct 29 1.5 0.475
UTEP Rice Thur, Nov 3 2.5 0.455
Rice WKU Sat, Nov 12 19 0
UTSA Rice Sat, Nov 19 11.5 0.118
Rice North Texas Sat, Nov 26 11.5 0.118

 

Rice was oh-so-close to a true breakthrough under HC Mike Bloomgren in 2021. The Owls went 4-8, but two losses came in OT. With 17 starters back, you’d figure my numbers would project another step forward for Bloomgren’s Owls. That’s not the case, partly due to a brutal non-conference schedule.

Rice’s clock-control offense (Bloomgren was David Shaw’s former OC at Stanford) returns seven starters, including five between the important OL/TE positions in this offense. The receiving corps should be improved with the return of WR Bradley Rozner (injury) and the position change of Luke McCaffrey (formerly a speedster QB). Rice has an excellent chance to improve on last year’s defense that allowed the 10th-most PPG with 10 starters returning.

  • Thor’s projected win total: 2.6
  • Las Vegas win total: 3.5
  • Thor’s bet: UNDER

The schedule doesn’t set up well for another season of improvement. My numbers show Rice as two-possession-or-greater underdogs in nine-of-12 games. Of the other three, Rice should beat the FCS team but is not guaranteed to hold serve at home against Charlotte or UTEP (ATL projects the Owls as very-short ‘dogs in both). I respect what Bloomgren is building here, but the road to four wins appears treacherous, possible only if Rice significantly improves from last year’s No. 123 ATL finish into the No. 100-110 range (like UTEP did last year). It’s possible, but they’ll likely take a slight step backward.

Florida International Panthers
Thor’s Preseason Power Ranking: 131 out of 131

Away Home Day Spread Win odds
Bryant FIU Thur, Sep 1 -5 0.681
FIU Texas State Fri, Sep 9 12.5 0.113
FIU WKU Sat, Sep 24 26 0
FIU NMSU Sat, Oct 1 2.5 0.455
UConn FIU Sat, Oct 8 1 0.488
UTSA FIU Fri, Oct 14 18.5 0
FIU Charlotte Sat, Oct 22 13 0.107
Louisiana Tech FIU Sat, Oct 29 11.5 0.118
FIU North Texas Sat, Nov 5 18.5 0
Florida Atlantic FIU Sat, Nov 12 12 0.116
FIU UTEP Sat, Nov 19 14 0.076
Middle Tennessee FIU Sat, Nov 26 14 0.076

 

The Butch Jones era ended with a thud. After beating an FCS team in the opener, FIU lost their next 11 games to FBS opponents (putting FIU on a 1-17 skid if you include the prior year). The Panthers made an interesting decision for Davis’ successor, tabbing former SJSU and Colorado HC Mike MacIntyre. MacIntyre is an underrated coach that I thought got railroaded at CU. A rebuild similar to the remarkable one he pulled off at SJSU – going from 1-12 to 10-2 in two years – will be required to get FIU back to a bowl anytime soon.

That’s not going to happen in year No. 1. Not only did this team fail to beat an FBS team last year, and finish No. 114 and 126, respectively, in scoring offense and defense. But they also overhauled their staff and returned only four starters total! MacIntyre has one of the nation’s least-talented teams and one of its least-experienced teams. MacIntyre is praying that Duke transfer QB Gunnar Holmberg can at least be competent enough to force touches to WR Tyrese Chambers, much as MacIntyre did at CU with Laviska Shenault. The defense, horrific last year, is a total mystery box with a new DC and so little experience returning.

  • Thor’s projected win total: 2.2
  • Las Vegas win total: 3
  • Thor’s bet: UNDER

ATL sees FIU as the worst team in the FBS and projects the Panthers as 11.5-point-or-greater underdogs in nine-of-12 games. To even push a bet on this total, FIU – barring an enormous upset – would need to go 3-0 in the other games… an FCS opponent, UConn, and New Mexico State. This gives under bettors a ton of leeway. The odds are significantly against FIU winning all three of those games and pulling off at least one upset as projected double-digit ‘dogs.

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