2022 Kentucky Derby Odds, Picks, Betting Analysis: Messier
We’re just days away from post time as the 148th edition of the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs is set to go off at 6:57 PM EST on Saturday. In what will serve as the first race of this year’s Triple Crown, unlike most years, there is no clearcut runaway favorite in this year’s field.
After the two favorites Zandon (3/1) and Epicenter (7/2), there are a handful of horses in the mid-tier range that should offer plenty of value for those who play them right. Let’s take a closer look at one such horse, Messier (8/1), and break down his chances of finding the winner’s circle come Saturday evening in Kentucky.
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Trainer
Prior to his suspension, one of the sport’s most notable and prominent figures, trainer Bob Baffert, trained Messier. Following a nine-month investigation for a failed drug test from last year’s Derby winner Medina Spirit, Baffert was handed a 90-day suspension in addition to being stripped of last year’s title.
Now, veteran trainer Tim Yakteen has taken over. If his recent success at the Santa Anita Derby is any indication, he should be just fine this weekend despite his newness to the Derby.
Jockey
For the third straight race, jockey John Velazquez will be riding Messier. He has so far done a great job in taking advantage of Messier’s running style. Said to be a “stalker,” Velazquez has been able to lean into Messier’s tendency to keep pace early and turn on the burners down the stretch and has improved his top speed in six straight races.
It is also worth noting that Velazquez is the winner of 15 Breeders’ Cup races, as well as six Triple Crown races including three Kentucky Derbies (2011, 2017, and 2020). With 23 career mounts here at the Derby, Velazquez is 2nd to only Taiba’s Mike Smith in terms of experience in this race.
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Horse
With six career starts, Messier has never finished worse than 2nd place, which includes three outright wins. While Baffert might not be on hand Saturday evening, you can be assured his presence will be felt by all of those involved in Messier’s camp in the build-up to this race.
Betting Advice
With this being a Baffert-trained horse prior to his suspension, and with a jockey of Velazquez’s caliber and experience, I like Messier to very much be in the thick of things come the final stretch on Saturday. While I’m going to sprinkle some money on Messier to win outright, my primary bet is going to be on him to show.
As a reminder or for those who don’t know, to “show” in a horse race means that horse will finish in the top three positions. To “place” would mean they finish in the top two.
And check out our previews for the other top horses of the 2022 Kentucky Derby:
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