2022 MLB Win Totals: Best Bets for the American League
It was a long 99 days for baseball fans, but the MLB Players Association and Major League Baseball finally reached an agreement on their CBA on March 10th. Regular season baseball is set to start April 7th and teams will play their full 162 game schedule in 2022. That’s important to note, as this article focuses on the MLB futures market – specifically whether teams will reach their Vegas win totals or not.
Below I’ve listed a team from each division that I think will surpass or fall short of their win total set by the sportsbooks:
Check out MLB Win Totals odds across all sportsbooks >>
AL East: Toronto Blue Jays Over 91.5 (-110, via Draftkings)
This blossoming Blue Jays team finished 91-71 in 2021 and missed the playoffs by just a single game. As a matter of fact, it came down to the final day of the season where there was potential for a four-team tiebreaker scenario. Unfortunately for Toronto fans, it wasn’t meant to be and the Jays weren’t able to punch their ticket to the MLB postseason.
Despite missing the playoffs, the Blue Jays saw their young core take a huge leap forward, which is really what matters. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was at the forefront of the offensive production in 2021, as he slashed .311/.401/.601, hit 48 home runs, and drove in 111 runs. Cavan Biggio and Bo Bichette also took steps in the right direction and had productive years in 2021. Look for Biggio and Bichette to really break out in 2022.
Additionally, Toronto is set to get a full season out of George Springer in 2022. The 32-year-old outfielder missed time with oblique and knee injuries and only played 78 games in 2021. Despite missing time, Springer still hit 22 homers and added 50 RBIs.
We know the Jays are an offensive juggernaut, but they also have a respectable starting rotation. Toronto signed Hyun Jin Ryu to a four-year, $80 million contract at the start of the 2021 season and acquired Jose Berrios midseason from the Twins. They also added Kevin Gausman for this upcoming year. Gausman is coming off of a phenomenal season with the Giants where he started 33 games, posted a 2.81 ERA, and struck out 227 hitters. This is a fierce top three that should be able to limit the sluggers that the rest of the AL East possesses.
The American League East is the most well-rounded division in baseball, with four teams that will be beating up on each other all season long. Out of the four teams, I like Toronto to prevail and win the East. In order to win the division, Toronto will need to win at least 95 games and they have the talent to accomplish that. And as powerful as the division is this year, the Blue Jays get to play the Orioles 19 times. That should be at least 15 wins towards the 92 mark that they need to eclipse to cash this over ticket.
Take the Blue Jays to win over 91.5 games (-110).
AL Central: Kansas City Royals Under 75.5 Wins (-110, via Draftkings)
The Kansas City Royals finished 74-88 last season and that was good enough for fourth in the American League Central. There weren’t many bright spots for K.C. aside from Salvador Perez and Whit Merrifield. Perez had a monster year, tying the lead with Vladamir Guerrero Jr. in home runs at 48 while knocking in a league-leading 121 RBIs.
One of the bigger weaknesses for Kansas City is their pitching – specifically the starting rotation. Their rotation consists of veteran Mike Minor and several prospects. 34-year-old Minor had a quality season in 2019 but hasn’t had an ERA under 5.00 since. The rest of the rotation is filled with young guys in Brad Keller, Brady Singer, and Kris Bubic. Each of those three has the potential to develop into quality pitchers, but at this point in their respective careers, it’s hard to say that they’ll take big leaps heading into 2022.
The American League Central is evolving into one of the tougher divisions in baseball and it seems as if the Royals are content to stand pat. The White Sox continue to get better as they gear up for a playoff run and the Tigers are developing their prospects really well and look to be a threat this season. And even though the Twins don’t have Josh Donaldson or Nelson Cruz anymore, they still have some players who will make big contributions in Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, and they added Gary Sanchez and Gio Urshela from the Yankees.
Ultimately, this division has three teams who are actively trying to compete, and then the Royals and Guardians seem pleased with their current status. Take the Royals to win less than 75.5 games (-110).
AL West: Houston Astros Over 92.5 (-110, via Draftkings)
The Houston Astros have been a mainstay at the top of the American League West for several years now. They won the World Series in 2017 and raised the A.L. Pennant in 2019 and 2021. Houston made a run to the World Series last season but dropped the series in six games to the Atlanta Braves.
At this point, the Houston Astros look like they’ll return a very similar lineup as 2021. Hate ‘em or love ‘em, you have to admit that the Astros are one of the best offensive teams in baseball with a roster bolstered by Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, and Kyle Tucker. And don’t forget Yuli Gurriel, who won the A.L. Batting Title in 2021 with a .319 average. Gurriel has to be one of the most underrated players in the league.
The pitching rotation returns Lance McCullers, Framber Valdez, and Luis Garcia. All three of those hurlers threw for ERA’s under 3.50 and had an average north of eight strikeouts per nine innings. The Houston Astros will also welcome back Justin Verlander, who’s returning after missing nearly two years. At this point, the organization will take whatever they can get out of the 39-year-old, two-time Cy Young winner. And just imagine how dominant Houston’s rotation will be if he’s able to ramp up his production anywhere close to where he was before his Tommy John surgery.
Looking at the rest of the division, starting with the Oakland Athletics, they have been selling like crazy since the CBA was finalized last week. They dealt SP Chris Bassitt to the Mets, Matt Olson to the Braves, Matt Champan to the Blue Jays, and Josh Harrison will not be returning (White Sox). Being that the A’s are on the downswing, they won’t pose too much of a threat against the Astros in 2022. The Seattle Mariners are much improved and will be the biggest concern for Houston this season. They’re building off of a 90-win season and just struck a deal with the Reds to acquire Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suarez.
The Los Angeles Angels are always a threat with Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, and Anthony Rendon. But after that, their lineup drops off a bit and they still seem light in the pitching department. The Texas Rangers broke open the checkbook prior to the lockout and signed Marcus Semien and Corey Seager. That is a stacked middle infield that signed $500 million in combined contracts, but the Rangers are still a few years away from being a true threat in the West.
Ultimately, I’m banking on the Astros and their experienced lineup to reach the 93 win mark in 2022. They have one of the most feared lineups in baseball and a rotation that’s primed to rank amongst Major League Baseball’s best.
Take the Houston Astros to win more than 92.5 games (-110).
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