2022 RBC Canadian Open: How to Make Golf Top Finish Bets (PGA)
The PGA Tour heads back to Canada for the first time since the pandemic started, as the RBC Open leads us into the following week’s U.S. Open. With many players using this week as a tune-up for the season’s third major, the field is stacked heading into the week.
With part of the golf world’s attention tuned in overseas, keeping an eye on the controversial LIV Golf series, let’s take a closer look at the RBC Canadian Open and see where the value lies ahead of the first tee.
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Previous Winners of the RBC Canadian Open
- 2021: N/A (COVID-19)
- 2020: N/A (COVID-19)
- 2019: Rory McIlroy
Course Preview: St. George’s Golf and Country Club
The Tour hasn’t been to St. George’s since 2010, so many players in this week’s field will be making their debut, and course history will factor little into our equations. At just a hair over 7,000 yards, St. George’s is one of the shortest courses these golfers will see all season, removing driving distance as a metric to consider this week.
However, what will be critical is the second shot, as St. George’s is filled with fairway valleys and small greens, making approach shots all the more important. Featuring redesigned bunkers and bentgrass greens, St. George’s is also known for thick rough, making players’ game around the greens key for success.
Located just outside Toronto, St. George’s is the only course on Tour where the practice facilities are located off the property, just down the road at Islington Golf Club.
Relevant Betting Stats
- Putting on Bentgrass
- SG: Approach
- SG: Around the Green
What is a Golf Top Finish Bet?
While betting on a golfer to win outright means they have to win the event, a golf top finish bet just means they have to finish in the top 5, 10, 20, or 40 for you to win your bet. As you would guess, the odds are highest for the top 5 markets, descending to the top 40 markets, and are correlated to the outright market in terms of where players are placed.
You’ll often find golfers around the Tour average in the even-money range when it comes to the top 40, while the Tour’s best are usually massive favorites. It’s also worth noting that given there are often many ties in golf outside winning outright, a T20 (with five other golfers) would cash a ticket that had your golfer finishing in the Top 20.
Traditionally reserved for majors when sportsbooks first rolled out this prop market, you can now find the golf top finish bet in every tournament, every week on the PGA Tour.
Strategy for Betting on Golf Top Finish Bets
Similar to the outright betting market, you’ll always want to check golfer’s historical performances on a given course and weigh it against their recent from. I often find the golf top finish bets perfect for golfers flying under the radar on Tour, yet to win an event but are consistently in contention.
Whenever I get a guy in the top 20 at plus money that I have as a top 25 player in the world, especially when they have success at a given course, I jump on that bet. Another strategy is to monitor weather forecasts and key in on guys who will have an advantage. For example, if high winds are expected in the mornings of an upcoming Thursday/Friday, check the tee times for solid players who have afternoon tee times when the wind is scheduled to come down. While not bulletproof, it’s one angle to consider when betting on golf top finishes.
Outright Betting Picks
Shane Lowry (+1600 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
Finishing T2 here back in 2010, Shane Lowry is one of the few players in this week’s field with both success here in the past and playing well currently. No. 2 on Tour in Proximity and No. 1 in scrambling, Lowry also ranks inside the top 15 in SG: Approach, SG: Putting, and SG: Total, quietly playing some of the best golf on Tour as of late.
Coming into the week, Lowry has three top 15s in his past five events and a T23 at the PGA Championship in one of his best Major finishes in years. A proven Major winner with the US Open just around the corner, look for Lowry to be dialed in, and in the hunt come the weekend in Toronto.
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