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2023 Ally 400: NASCAR at Nashville Odds, Picks & Predictions

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Bloody Marys for breakfast. Bachelorette parties on Broadway. This is the Music City – or at least what it looks like through the social media highlight reels.

But hidden from the rooftop bars and hot chicken shops are the grinders. The ones playing every show they can for little to no money, just hoping someone enjoys their music and that the right person might be listening.

Nashville stands for more than the tourist buzzword it’s become over the last decade. It’s where dreams of the country music variety come true.

That in itself is pretty special. Then you add 36 stock car drivers traveling to Tennesee this weekend to chase their own dreams of punching a ticket to the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs with a win. Now it’s a damn good time with a lot on the line.

Ahead of revealing our card for this 400-mile high-stakes night race, let’s look at what data sets we’re considering:

  • 2022 Nashville (finishes, total speed rankings* & late-run speed*)
  • 2023 Dover + high-speed 1.5-mile tracks (finishes, total speed rankings*)
  • Driver track history
  • Recent performance & current standings

*via ifantasyrace.com

With only two years of data for the NASCAR Cup Series in Nashville, this is another race where we advise not emptying your entire betting roll. Yet, there is still some value hung out there by the books that we’ll be taking a stab at in our best bets for Sunday night’s Ally 400.

2023 Ally 400: NASCAR at Nashville Odds, Picks & Predictions

All bet recommendations are for 1u unless noted.

Top 5: Denny Hamlin (+120 via Barstool Sportsbook)

Surprised not to see Martin Truex Jr.’s name here? Well, after hitting the 28-1 outright on him last time out, he’s still on the card. Yet, I figured it was time to shed some light on his teammate, Denny Hamlin.

Last season in Nashville, Hamlin ranked second in total speed ranking and second-fastest late in a run (to only Truex Jr.), ultimately finishing sixth. The No. 11 car also has the second-best total speed ranking across Dover and high-speed 1.5-mile tracks (again, only to Truex Jr.), catching speed at tracks like Kansas, Las Vegas and Charlotte.

Hamlin’s recent performance is also better than the results dictate. He was fast at Sonoma before the bye week, winning the first stage before pit-stop issues pushed him back before he ultimately crashed out. Before that, he finished second at Gateway, right after leading 20 laps at Charlotte. Hamlin’s had speed, just not the finishes as of late. I think course correction takes effect this weekend, and he’s racing for the win come the checkered flag.

Top 10: Michael McDowell (+700 via Caesars Sportsbook)

Considering how well Michael McDowell has run as of late (seventh at Sonoma and ninth at Gateway), this number is too good to pass up. The team seems to have found something and can get it done on all types of tracks, including a sixth-place finish in Richmond earlier this year.

Nashville has always been a track that the No. 34 car has been good, not great, at. McDowell has finishes of 13th and 16th here. This aligns with his 14th-best total speed ranking and 13th-fastest late in a run from last season. McDowell is making moves right now. I think that confidence can carry over, up those metrics and squeeze out a T10 for us come Sunday.

Group G: Aric Almirola (+240 via Caesars Sportsbook)

Vs. Austin Cindric (+240), Austin Dillon (+240) & Chase Briscoe (+240)

Momentum matters in NASCAR, and Aric Almirola has some – at least compared to this group of underperformers. Almirola showed us something in the NASCAR All-Star Open. He then was competitive at Charlotte, running in the top 10 towards the end of the race. And then Almiola shocked the world when he won the Xfinity Series race at Sonoma just before the bye week.

Almirola won the pole here in 2021 and finished fourth that season. While he was 17th here last season, he has the ninth-best average driver rating across the Cup Series at Nashville among active drivers.

Meanwhile, Austin Cindric finished seventh here last season. Yet, he has been perhaps the most disappointing driver so far this season, not scoring a T10 since March 26 at Circuit of the Americas (COTA). Austin Dillon’s best finish at Nashville is 12th. But he’s been almost as bad as Cindric this season, posting a 22.6 average finish over his last eight races. Chase Briscoe has been running just as poorly lately, finishing 29th or worst in four of his last six races. His career finishes at Nashville are just 31st and 34th.

I have no problem backing Almiola to beat these drivers who just seem to be cars in the way, more times than not anymore.

Other Bets on My Card:

Seth Woolcock is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more sports betting and fantasy sports analysis from Seth, check out In-Between Media and follow him @Between_SethFF.