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2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational Odds, Picks & Predictions

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Boy, am I glad I didn’t invest heavily into last week’s Honda Classic. The leaderboard was an unmitigated disaster for most bettors. Champion Chris Kirk snuck into my DFS player pool at the last minute, but even he couldn’t overcome the damage done by my other “favorites.” One of my most hopeful picks was Thomas Detry. He bumbled around and shot a six-over 76 on Thursday, before withdrawing from the tournament. The odds-on favorite was Sunjae Im, who simply could not string enough good holes together.

Oh well. Ultimately, only seven units go down the drain in what will be one of my most conservative events on the calendar. The Honda Classic field was bereft of top talent. It was unfortunately sandwiched between four elevated events, the third of which is this week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill. Arnie made this event one of the most special non-majors on tour.

2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational Odds, Picks & Predictions

Let’s dive in.

Bay Hill is yet another Florida course that features a ton of water hazards. The par-72 track stretches to around 7,400 yards and certainly favors bombers who can keep the ball in play. Defending champ Scottie Scheffler aggressively attacked pins and overcame his misses with insanely strong scrambling skills. My weighted statistical model will favor longer hitters, but emphasize strokes gained from tee to green (SG: T2G) and scrambling. Par-5 scoring is back on the docket, along with bogey avoidance. One very strong correlation to consider is that golfers who win at Bay Hill have typically performed well here in years past.

The strength of this field allows us to bet on a couple favorites who might be underappreciated by the Vegas books. There are also a few golfers who are playing very well lately that are not getting much respect in the odds department. Ultimately, my aggression this week will be top-heavy. It is very unlikely that a longshot will have the chops to overcome a world-class invitational field. We’re getting back on track this week. I was locked in at Bay Hill and Sawgrass last season and have the utmost confidence again.

(Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Rory McIlroy (Outright +900 [1u]; Top-5 +230 [1u])

There is no denying that Jon Rahm is the best (and hottest) golfer on the planet right now. Rahm models at the very top, no matter how I shake the weighted stats around. I still, in good conscience, cannot bet anyone at 6-1 odds in a field this strong. Rory is right up there with Rahm in the talent department, but has scuffled (by his standards) of late. He also trumps the Spaniard in the most important metric, SG: T2G, where he is number one in the field.

Max Homa (Outright +2000 [1u]; Top-10 +220 [1u])

There’s a 1B hottest golfer to Rahm and that’s Max Homa. The SoCal kid has played incredible golf in 2023, much better than the 20-1 odds would suggest. This is an edge play, since I would bet Homa as high as 12-1 with his recent form and strong history at Bay Hill. Other than putting and scrambling, the stats don’t really jump off the screen for Homa. Fortunately, he doesn’t seem to have any real weaknesses either. I feel comfortable betting on his consistency here.

Tyrrell Hatton (Outright +3500 [0.5u]; Top-10 +330 [0.5u])

Something about Bay Hill just seems to suit the fiery Englishman, Tyrrell Hatton. He finished 29th here in 2019, then won the tournament in 2020. After a t-21 finish in 2021, he knocked on the door yet again last year and fell to Scheffler by a single stroke. To sweeten the deal, Hatton’s form has been very strong in 2023. These odds are exactly where I expected them to be. Hatton is a dark horse that would be a favorite if not for the star power around him.

Cameron Young (Outright +3500 [0.5u])

Sometimes a bettor needs to trust their gut…even if it’s growling irrationally about a particular play. Cameron Young has really struggled so far this year, after his rookie season yielded five runner-up finishes. He models poorly this week at Bay Hill, but his skillset fits the course like a glove. That was apparent in his t-13 result in 2022, where a Saturday round of 76 knocked him out of the running. My gut says Young gets right this week and reminds the golfing world how explosive he can be on the scorecard.

Keith Mitchell (Outright +4500 [0.5u]; Top-10 +400 [0.5u])

Nearly every year, the winner at Bay Hill is an amazing driver of the golf ball. Keith Mitchell is a world class player off the tee (best in the field) and has taken his game to a new level in 2023. He comes in at 12th in my weighted model, which easily surpasses his long odds of victory. He made the cut here last season, only to literally douse his chances in a Saturday round of 78. With two top-5 finishes in his last three events, I’ll go out on a limb and say he pops up on the first page of the leaderboard yet again this week.

Gary Woodland (Outright +9000 [0.5u]; Top-20 +300 [1u])

The 2023 season has been a rollercoaster for Tour veteran, Gary Woodland. His finishes have ranged from ninth place in his last event at the Genesis, to an embarrassing missed cut at the Sony Open. Woodland is a bomber with otherworldly ball-striking ability. He rates highly in proximity on approach, as well. On paper, he does not appear very highly-ranked in my stat model because of poor scrambling and short game stats. On the other hand, he logged a top-5 finish at last year’s Arnold Palmer Invitational. If Woodland can steer clear of trouble, he can make birdies fall from the sky and compete with virtually anyone.

Total Units Played: 8.0

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