2023 Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400: NASCAR at Texas Odds, Picks & Predictions
The impact of weather on just about every aspect of our life cannot be overstated. That includes sports betting.
This weekend’s NFL and College Football slates - especially on the East Coast - could see drastic swings following the threat of Tropical Storm Ophelia. NASCAR, on the other hand, heads for the scorching heat of Fort Worth, Texas. Outside temperatures are expected to reach 99 degrees, meaning drivers could be facing heat of upwards of 140-150 degrees.
This will put fitness to the test and likely get tempers boiling as the Round of 12 in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs begins.
Texas is a bit of an oddball track, with recent criticism leading the Cup Series to cut down to just one date per year. Yet, it still classifies as a low-tire wear intermediate track, and we’ll certainly be factoring that in with this week’s data sets:
- 2022 Texas (Finishes, green flag speed,* total speed rankings,* late-run speed* & loop data*)
- Low-wear comp tracks (finishes & total speed rankings*):
- 2023 Las Vegas
- 2023 Kansas I
- 2023 Charlotte
- 2023 Kansas II
- Driver history
- Track & playoff trends
- Recent performance & current standings
*via ifantasyrace.com
With the stage set and the playoff points reset for the round, let’s get to our best bet for the 2023 Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400:
2023 Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400: NASCAR at Texas Odds, Picks & Predictions
All bet recommendations are for 1u unless noted.
Top 3: Denny Hamlin (+160 via Caesars Sportsbook)
With how Denny Hamlin has been running the past four months, it’s hard not to bet him every week. His odds are getting shorter, but his performances are getting even better. In the last 16 races, Hamlin has only ranked outside the top six in the total speed rankings three times. Those races were Chicago Street, Indianapolis Road Course and the Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona.
Last year at Texas, the No. 11 car was top eight in the total speed rankings and had the fourth-fastest late run speed. Ranking second among active drivers in Texas wins, Hamlin should be there at the end unless he has an issue on pit road.
Top 10: Kyle Busch (-124 via BetRivers Sportsbook)
Kyle Busch is trying to join Jeff Burton and Carl Edwards as the only drivers to ever win Texas with two different manufacturers. And I think he might just do it. “Rowdy” enters Texas as the active leader in wins (four), T5s (14) and laps led (1,069). Busch crashed while running fourth here in his Joe Gibbs Racing (JGR) Toyota Camry last season. However, he was seventh in the total speed rankings that day.
Even more enticing is that Busch will be driving the No. 8 car that won this race last year with Tyler Reddick behind the wheel. The car led the most laps with 70 and ranked second in average running position at 9.3. With Richard Childress Racing (RCR) winning two of the last four Texas, I believe Reddick’s dominance last season was more the car than his driving in particular.
I’m backing Buch at what feels like a generous price in a bear T10 market.
Group D: Ryan Preece (+250 via Caesars Sportsbook)
vs. Justin Haley (+250), Corey Lajoie (+250) & Harrison Burton (+250)
This wager is more based on recent performance than anything. The three drivers Ryan Preece is matched up against all have their rides secured for next season, and their recent runs show it. Meanwhile, Preece is still reportedly finalizing an extension to stay in the No. 41 car, so any good runs help.
Over the last three races (Bristol, Kansas and Darlington), Preece has an average finish of 19.3. It’s not world-beating, but significantly better than Corey Lajoie (23.0), Justin Haley (27.6) and Harrison Burton (32.7). In addition, Preece has finished the best of this group in the last two races, including at comp track Kansas.
Other Bets on My Card:
- Kyle Busch Outright (+1600 via BetRivers Sportsbook)
- Group B: Austin Dillon (+450 via Caesars Sportsbook)
Seth Woolcock is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more sports betting and fantasy sports analysis from Seth, check out In-Between Media and follow him @Between_SethFF.