2023 Barbasol Championship: PGA Longshot Odds, Picks & Predictions

I drilled Sepp Straka outright at 58/1 in last week's edition of our best longshot picks at the John Deere Classic. Now, we look forward to this week's Barbasol Championship in Nicholasville, Ky.

Serving as an alternate to the Genesis Scottish Open, the Barbasol Championship is a co-sanctioned event between the PGA TOUR and European Tour. The Championship Course at Keene Trace Golf Club will host this event, which it has done annually since 2018.

Keene Trace Golf Club is a par-72, 7,328-yard track (yardage subject to change) designed by Arthur Hills that benefits strong ball strikers and those who excel on bentgrass greens. Looking at the top of previous leaderboards, the greatest predictor of success at this course is strokes gained from tee to green.

Below, I will give out my two best longshot bets to win the 2023 Barbasol Championship.

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2023 Barbasol Championship: Best Longshot Bets

These plays are 0.36u and 0.18u, or 0.36% and 0.18% of your betting bankroll.

Andrew Novak (+4500 via DraftKings): 0.36u

The first golfer we are targeting this week is Andrew Novak, who currently sits at 45/1 via DraftKings. Entering this week in tremendous form, Novak has made eight of his past 11 cuts with two top-10 finishes over that span.

This strong stretch of golf is likely to continue at Keene Trace Golf Club, a venue that should complement his game well against a very watered-down field. A good ball striker, Novak ranks 80th on TOUR this season in strokes gained from tee to green.

Once on those bentgrass greens, he should fare well, considering that he has gained strokes putting in two of his past three tournaments contested on bentgrass greens. Novak has never played here before, which is part of the reason for the long price. Still, Jim Herman also won in his first appearance here in 2019.

Satoshi Kodaira (+11000 via FanDuel): 0.18u

Another golfer to target this week is Satoshi Kodaira, who currently sits at 110/1 via FanDuel. Simply put, this price is far too long for a golfer who is one of the best iron players in this tournament.

On TOUR this season, Kodaira ranks 65th in strokes gained tee to green, 34th in strokes gained approach to green and 41st in greens in regulation percentage. This strong iron play has led to Kodaira making the cut in each of his past four tournaments, granted he has failed to finish inside the top 35 in any of those outings.

But that is why we are catching his price at 110/1, even against a very weak field. His inconsistent performance on bentgrass greens is my biggest concern in backing Kodaira this week.

He lost -1.82 strokes gained putting at last week’s John Deere Classic, but he also gained +1.33 strokes putting at the AT&T Byron Nelson. Both of those tournaments were contested on bentgrass greens, and if we catch a performance similar to the latter, then it would not be shocking if Kodaira is in contention come Sunday afternoon.

In fact, he has made the cut in all three of his career appearances at Keene Trace Golf Club, including a T20 finish in 2021.

Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.