2023 Breeders’ Cup Classic Odds, Picks & Predictions
Welcome to our overview of the Breeders’ Cup Classic. The race has one of the biggest purses of the year standing at 6 million dollars. It is the pinnacle of Horse Racing for male and female horses that are at least three years old. The race is a mile and a quarter in length through two turns. We will look at a nuanced form of speed figures from Thoro-Graph to determine our choices for this magnificent event. Let’s dive in!
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2023 Breeders’ Cup Classic Odds & Picks
Glossary
Thoro-Graph Figure: Each figure (aka number) represents a performance rating calculated by using the time of the race, beaten lengths (a proprietary formula different than generally used), ground lost or saved, weight carried, and the effect wind may or may not have had on the time of the race. The final figure is manually adjusted with a carefully crafted track variant. The lower the number the better the race.
Pattern Profile:
- Top: More than one point higher than the highest figure in the last three races
- Pair: Within one point either higher or lower than the highest figure in the last three races
- Off: Two to four points worse than the highest figure in the last three races
- X: Worse than four points than the highest figure in the last three races
Breeders’ Cup 2023 Predictions and Odds
We will be listing every single horse running, their post position, Thoro-Graph figure (lower the better) for the last three races, Jockey/Trainer win percentage and their pattern profile.
2. Zandon 12-1 ML
- Thoro-Graph profile: -1, -1, -1
- Top 19%, Pair 44%, Off 25%, X 13%
- J/T win %: 0% (4 races)
3. White Abarrio 4-1 ML
- Thoro-Graph profile: -6, -0, -2
- Top 33%, Pair 20%, Off 31%, X 16%
- J/T win %: 17% (23 races)
4. Missed the Cut 30-1 ML
- Thoro-Graph profile: 3, 5, 4
- Top 15%, Pair 35%, Off 33%, X 16%
- J/T win %: 10% (10 races)
5. Derma Sotogate (Japan) 20-1 ML
- Thoro-Graph profile: 3, 1, 6
- Top 10%, Pair 31%, Off 24%, X 13%
- J/T win %: N/A
6. Saudi Crown 12-1 ML
- Thoro-Graph profile: 1, 3, 2
- Top 24%, Pair 39%, Off 24%, X 15%
- J/T win %: 27% (1889 races)
7. Clapton 20-1 ML
- Thoro-Graph profile: -0, -0, 2
- Top 16%, Pair 41%, Off 24%, X 13%
- J/T win %: 12% (26 starts)
8. Ushba Tesoro (Japan) 4-1 ML
- Thoro-Graph profile: -2, 1, 0
- N/A Pattern Profile
- J/T win%: N/A
9. Senor Buscador 30-1 ML
- Thoro-Graph profile: 0, 0, 0
- Top 14%, Pair 42%, Off 28%, X 16%
- J/T win %: 25% (4 races)
10. Dreamlike 30-1 ML
- Thoro-Graph profile: 2, 7, 5
- Top 39%, Pair 27%, Off 19%, X 15%
- J/T win %: 21% (499 races)
11. Bright Future 10-1 ML
- Thoro-Graph profile: 0,-0, 18
- Top 14%, Pair 34%, Off 31%, X 21%
- J/T win %: 26% (3475 races)
12. Arabian Knight 3-1 ML
- Thoro-Graph profile: 3, 1, 3
- Top 14%, Pair 37%, Off 32%, X 17%
- J/T win %: 34% (209 races)
13. Proxy 12-1 ML
- Thoro-Graph profile: 0, 0, 3
- Top 4%, Pair 18%, Off 43%, X 36%
- J/T win %: 18% (96 races)
Pace plays an extremely key role in every single horse race. I am going to break down the horses into buckets by their running style via TimeForm. By doing this we can see how the race shapes up and plays out.
Frontrunners:
6. Saudi Crown
- Has led at the quarter pole in four of five races
- Has led at the halfway point in all five races
- Has a workout on Oct 7th at 4 furlongs in 48 seconds (10th of 137 horses working out that day)
12. Arabian Knight
- Has led at the quarter pole in four of five races
- Has led at the halfway point in all five races
These two horses will joust for the lead in the early going. Saudi Crown is expected to take that lead comfortably going into the halfway point.
Trackers:
3. White Abarrio
- Irad Ortiz will look to keep him with 2 to 3 lengths of the FrontRunners. In his last race, Ortiz kept him in a close second and then jettisoned past on the homestretch to win by 6 lengths. Past jockeys kept him further back and it hindered his ability to make his move in the midpoint of the race.
The rest of the field is grouped together as midpack and closers. They should be clustered together in that third group and not separated by more the six to seven total lengths.
Summary:
It looks as if you will need to have a Thoro-Graph score of at least -1 to -2 to win this race. There are a couple of horses that simply are not fast enough and will struggle to compete for even minor places in this race. Not only is speed a factor here, but actual form is crucial. Not many horses are set up to produce a Top Figure. I am going to list the horses that we are eliminating from our pool because of Speed and Form.
- 4. Missed the Cut
- 5. Derma Sotogate (Japan)
- 7. Clapton
- 9. Senor Buscador
- 11. Bright Future
- 13. Proxy
We will not be using any of those above horses in our betting. I also am going to make a bold call and leave 12. Arabian Knight out of any of my tickets. I do not feel as if the horse is fast enough and I feel that we are overpaying for the connections of Bob Baffert and Flavien Prat. This leaves us with five total horses to choose from. Realistically, White Abarrio is in the best possible position to win this race. He will be tracking off the lead and has the potential to put the race away in the homestretch with little resistance from the closers. From a form perspective, 10. Dreamlike has a sneaky good shot at showing up in trifecta or exacta tickets. 8. Ushba Tesoro has the speed to win this race and is a wildcard as a shipping horse but his short odds leave much to be desired at the betting window. Lastly, 6. Saudi Crown can wire this field if he is given enough space. If he runs unchallenged on the lead, he could come home at a huge price.
The Bets
3. White Abarrio to Win 4/1 ML
$10 Exacta Box (3-6-8-10)
- 3. White Abarrio
- 6. Saudi Crown
- 8. Ushba Tesoro
- 10. Dreamlike
The horses can come first and second in any order. The cost for the ticket is twelve times whatever your unit size is. So a $10 exacta box is $120.
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Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!