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2023 Coke Zero Sugar 400: NASCAR at Daytona Odds, Picks & Predictions

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There’s something about Saturday nights.

It used to be the thrill of sneaking out of the house to hear the crackling of brush on our small-town bonfires. Then, I moved away and discovered the roar of the college-town bars - blacking out just as the lights were coming on at closing time.

And now, suddenly, Saturday nights have become sitting on the porch, watching the sunset with the one I love, watching cars and Amish buggies pass the front gate. It’s simple, subtle and a complete 180 from where I was less than a decade ago.

Whatever phase of life you’re in, whatever makes the weekend feel like just that - the week’s end - soak it in. I’ll be doing just that this Saturday night as I enjoy a bowl of my Uncle Greg’s chili, watching the race with my family. NASCAR has always been considered a Sunday sport. But I live for these seldom Saturday night shootouts.

The Cup Series returns to Daytona for the running of the Coke Zero Sugar 400. With it serving as the final stop before the playoffs, the stakes are as high as some of those watching the chaos ensue.

When it comes to gambling on a race that can go sideways at a moment’s notice, it’s always best to proceed with caution and budget your betting bankroll. However, it’s also an opportunity to have fun as the libations flow. So take some longshots, set some DFS lineups and have a freakin’ blast. It’s Daytona night, baby.

Here are the data sets I used when capping this chaotic close to the summertime:

  • 2022 Daytona 500 (finishes & total speed rankings*, green flag speed*, speed late in a run* & loop data*)
  • Other 2023 Superspeedways & large tracks (finishes & total speed rankings*)
    • Auto Club (slightly)
    • Atlanta I
    • Talladega
    • Atlanta II
    • Pocono (slightly)
    • Michigan (slightly)
  • Driver track history
  • Track trends
  • Recent performance & current standing

*via ifantasyrace.com

With the stage set and my Unc’s chili probably already in the crockpot, let’s get to the best bets for the Coke Zero Sugar 400:

2023 Coke Zero Sugar 400: NASCAR at Daytona Odds, Picks & Predictions

All bet recommendations are for 1u unless noted.

Top 5: Brad Keselowski (+245 via BetRivers Sportsbook)

Brad Keselowski has aced the superspeedways this season. He led 19.9% of laps in the Daytona 500 (most by any driver), was first by mid-race, ran 81.1% of laps in the top-15 (fourth-most) and had the second-best driver rating (105.2) to only teammate Chris Buescher. In addition, Keselowski has an average finish of 4.3 between both Atlanta races and Talladega this season. If there’s one driver I can back to finish this high at Daytona, it’s the one hailing from Rochester Hills, Mich.

Top 10: Erik Jones (+130 via BetRivers Sportsbook)

These odds have shrunk since earlier this week when they opened at +175. Nonetheless, we’re backing Erik Jones to finish well while trying to wheel himself into the playoffs. The No. 43 might’ve crashed out of the Daytona 500, but he was scary fast. In his first official race with Legacy Mootor Club, he was No. 2 in total speed rankings, 10th in green flag speed and fifth by mid-race.

His finishes at the other super speedways and 2.0+ mile tracks show why I’m so high on the No. 43 car this weekend:

  • Auto Club: P19
  • Atlanta I: P8
  • Talladega – P6
  • Atlanta II: P11
  • Pocono: P9
  • Michigan: P10

Jones won this race in 2018. I think he could very much do it again five years later.

Matchup: Chris Buescher (-105) vs. Kyle Busch (-125) via DraftKings Sportsbook

If Keselowski wasn’t the best car in the Daytona 500, it was Buescher’s No. 17 Ford Mustang. He led 15% of laps, was No. 1 in driver rating (109.7) and ran 84.9% of laps inside the top 15 (second most). He’s also the only driver this season to go two for two of scoring a T5 at the traditional superspeedways (Daytona and Talladega).

Meanwhile, Kyle Busch was just average here earlier this season. His driver rating was a lowly 63% and he ran just 53% of laps in the top 15. His average running position of 17.7 is reflected in his 17th total speed ranking. It asksi sits well behind Buescher’s 9.2 average running position.

“Rowdy” can always pull something out of a hat and be there at the end. But I’ll back one of NASCAR’s hottest drivers against someone that’s not.

Other Bets on My Card:

Seth Woolcock is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more sports betting and fantasy sports analysis from Seth, check out In-Between Media and follow him @Between_SethFF.

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