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2023 College Baseball World Series Super Regionals Picks & Predictions

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What an incredible first weekend at the CWS. Seven (1) seeds have been eliminated. That includes several teams that presented red flags that we outlined in our previous article. For those tailing, we have five of our eight remaining picks to make it to Omaha still in the tournament (Texas, Wake Forest, Tennessee, Virginia, and LSU). There are sixteen teams remaining and there is a ton of value and intriguing matchups to look at. Let’s dive in!!!

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Glossary:

K%: Strikeout percentage

BB%: Walk percentage

ISO: Isolated Power, extra-base hits only. SLG-AVG=ISO

BABIP: Batting average on balls in play. This excludes strikeouts, walks, and home runs because they are not technically hit into play and are affected by the defense. This is viewed as a lucky statistic.

wRC+: Weighted Runs Created Plus. This statistic is measured on a scale of 100. 100 being average. If a team has a 130 wRC+, they are 30 percent better than the average team.

GB%: Percentage of balls in play that are ground balls

LD%: Percentage of balls in play that are line drives.

HR/FB%: Percentage of fly balls that are converted to home runs

FIP: Fielding Independent Pitching. FIP looks at what a pitcher can control: strikeouts, home runs, and walks. This is a better indicator of a pitcher’s value than ERA.

LOB%: Percentage of runners left on base.

For more information about advanced baseball statistics, see the FantasyPros Sabermetrics Glossary.

Stanford Super Regional

Stanford (-125) vs Texas (-105)


Stanford’s CWS Profile:

Off K%: 54th
Off BB%: 170th
ISO: 15th
BABIP: 42nd
wRC+: 16th
GB%: 229th
LD%: 129th
Off HR/FB%: 14th

Pitching
BB%: 220th
K%: 16th
FIP: 96th
LOB%: 131st
GB%: 136th
LD%: 158th
HR/FB%: 247th

Texas CWS Profile:

Off K%: 105th
Off BB%: 81st
ISO: 44th
BABIP: 101st
wRC+: 56th
GB%: 39th
LD%: 271st
Off HR/FB%: 90th

Pitching
BB%: 153rd
K%: 59th
FIP: 15th
LOB%: 27th
GB%: 28th
LD%: 61st
HR/FB%: 4th

This entire series will hinge on home runs. Texas is elite in pitching HR/FB% (4th) and Stanford is elite in ISO and HR/FB% (15th and 14th respectively). If Stanford is held in check, this series could be ugly. Stanford’s pitching staff is extremely underwhelming ranking 96th or lower in every category except K%. Texas ran through a Miami pitching staff that was infinitely better than Stanford. I’m sticking with my original pick of Texas making it to Omaha.

LSU Super Regional

LSU (-235) vs Kentucky (+190)


LSU’s CWS Profile:

Off K%: 94th
Off BB%: 15th
ISO: 6th
BABIP: 57th
wRC+: 4th
GB%: 25th
LD%: 221st
Off HR/FB%: 17th

Pitching
BB%: 131st
K%: 3rd
FIP: 9th
LOB%: 70th
GB%: 265th
LD%: 1st
HR/FB%: 73rd

Kentucky’s CWS Profile:

Off K%: 201st
Off BB%: 41st
ISO: 179th
BABIP: 6th
wRC+: 39th
GB%: 49th
LD%: 41st
Off HR/FB%: 216th

Pitching
BB%: 163rd
K%: 47th
FIP: 68th
LOB%: 6th
GB%: 25th
LD%: 60th
HR/FB%: 176th

LSU is arguably the best team in the country. They rank top 20 in BB%, ISO, wRC+, Off HR/FB% and Pitching K%, FIP, and LD%. They match up incredibly well with Kentucky. Kentucky has to manufacture runs as is evident of their ranking 179th in ISO and 216th in HR/FB%. Pairing these below-average power numbers with a 6th ranking of BABIP is extremely concerning. Kentucky scored 21 runs in 4 games and 10 of those were against WVU. In contrast, LSU put up 26 runs in 3 games. To no surprise, I am sticking with my LSU pick to make it to Omaha.

Southern Mississippi Super Regional

Tennessee (-165) vs Southern Mississippi (+135)


Tennessee’s CWS Profile:

Off K%: 245th
Off BB%: 10th
ISO: 4th
BABIP: 128th
wRC+: 14th
GB%: 64th
LD%: 262nd
Off HR/FB%: 4th

Pitching
BB%: 6th
K%: 2nd
FIP: 4th
LOB%: 16th
GB%: 102nd
LD%: 3rd
HR/FB%: 264th

Southern Mississippi’s CWS Profile:

Off K%: 90th
Off BB%: 72nd
ISO: 93rd
BABIP: 185th
wRC+: 86th
GB%: 92nd
LD%: 142nd
Off HR/FB%: 69th

Pitching
BB%: 93rd
K%: 11th
FIP: 31st
LOB%: 79th
GB%: 82nd
LD%: 176th
HR/FB%: 177th

I cannot find a category that Southern Mississippi is better in than Tennessee. The Volunteers’ only weakness is they rank 264th in Pitching HR/FB%, but Southern Miss doesn’t have the offense to really take advantage of that. Southern Miss ranks 93rd in ISO and 69th in HR/FB%. Tennessee is versatile offensively. Pairing elite power numbers (4th in ISO and HR/FB%) with elite discipline (10th in BB%) is going to be too much for Southern Miss to overcome. I again am going with our original pick, Tennessee should waltz into Omaha.

Florida’s Super Regional

Florida (-140) vs South Carolina (+110)


Florida’s CWS Profile:

Off K%: 142nd
Off BB%: 128th
ISO: 2nd
BABIP: 169th
wRC+: 18th
GB%: 5th
LD%: 12th
Off HR/FB%: 6th

Pitching
BB%: 167th
K%: 7th
FIP: 38th
LOB%: 57th
GB%: 85th
LD%: 267th
HR/FB%: 268th

South Carolina’s CWS Profile:

Off K%: 294th
Off BB%: 4th
ISO: 14th
BABIP: 188th
wRC+: 35th
GB%: 68th
LD%: 203rd
Off HR/FB%: 1st

Pitching
BB%: 27th
K%: 14th
FIP: 8th
LOB%: 30th
GB%: 86th
LD%: 197th
HR/FB%: 143rd

This series will come down to the ability of Florida to outperform their ranking of 268th in pitching HR/FB%. If Florida cannot improve upon that, they will get absolutely punished. South Carolina ranks 14th in ISO and 1st in Off HR/FB%. Florida’s pitching staff’s main strength is K% (7th) and South Carolina’s biggest weakness is Off K% (294th). Overall I have South Carolina winning based on their overall talent and their ability to exploit Florida’s abysmal HR/FB% ranking.

Virginia’s Super Regional

Virginia (-195) vs Duke (+160)


Virginia’s CWS Profile:

Off K%: 8th
Off BB%: 89th
ISO: 69th
BABIP: 4th
wRC+: 7th
GB%: 203rd
LD%: 65th
Off HR/FB%: 109th

Pitching
BB%: 12th
K%: 13th
FIP: 19th
LOB%: 10th
GB%: 139th
LD%: 26th
HR/FB%: 189th

Duke’s CWS Profile:

Off K%: 250th
Off BB%: 99th
ISO: 41st
BABIP: 146th
wRC+: 68th
GB%: 167th
LD%: 133rd
Off HR/FB%: 19th

Pitching
BB%: 126th
K%: 4th
FIP: 7th
LOB%: 20th
GB%: 34th
LD%: 18th
HR/FB%: 103rd

This series can go either way. Virginia’s BABIP ranking of 4th is worrisome, especially when paired with average power numbers. Virginia’s elite plate discipline is the central cog of their offense (8th in K%), allowing them to always be threatening by constantly putting the ball in play. Duke, on the other hand, is average offensively and is dependent on the home run. They are abysmal in plate discipline (250th in K% and 99th in BB%). Both pitching staffs are elite, and whichever one falters first could be the difference. I’m riding with our original pick of Virginia, I believe they will put more pressure on the Duke pitching staff and eventually break through.

Oregon’s Super Regional

Oregon (-165) vs Oral Roberts (+135)


Oregon’s CWS Profile:

Off K%: 169th
Off BB%: 283rd
ISO: 32nd
BABIP: 63rd
wRC+: 58th
GB%: 252nd
LD%: 297th
Off HR/FB%: 37th

Pitching
BB%: 236th
K%: 158th
FIP: 201st
LOB%: 35th
GB%: 188th
LD%: 35th
HR/FB%: 161st

Oral Roberts CWS Profile:

Off K%: 33rd
Off BB%: 108th
ISO: 39th
BABIP: 25th
wRC+: 19th
GB%: 44th
LD%: 140th
Off HR/FB%: 77th

Pitching
BB%: 25th
K%: 28th
FIP: 32nd
LOB%: 2nd
GB%: 132nd
LD%: 20th
HR/FB%: 131st

As we wrote in our previous article about Oral Roberts,  “I would not be shocked if they won the opening-day game against Oklahoma State. If they can pull that off, then they can definitely win this region.” Well, here we are, Oral Roberts is two wins away from Omaha. Oregon is completely dependent on hitting home runs offensively. Outside of ISO and HR/FB%, they rank 63rd or lower in every other category. The most concerning thing is they lack any type of plate discipline (169th in K% and 283rd in BB%). Oral Roberts is just plain better in every category from top to bottom. Oral Roberts +135 is my favorite play of the entire Super Regional.

TCU’s Super Regional

TCU (-180) vs Indiana State (+150)


TCU’s CWS Profile

Off K%: 129th
Off BB%: 77th
ISO: 104th
BABIP: 70th
wRC+: 69th
GB%: 262nd
LD%: 164th
Off HR/FB%: 75th

Pitching
BB%: 124th
K%: 85th
FIP: 72nd
LOB%: 82nd
GB%: 30th
LD%: 100th
HR/FB%: 149th

Indiana State’s CWS Profile:

Off K%: 194th
Off BB%: 275th
ISO: 140th
BABIP: 159th
wRC+: 156th
GB%: 48th
LD%: 36th
Off HR/FB%: 133rd

Pitching
BB%: 10th
K%: 53rd
FIP: 22nd
LOB%: 4th
GB%: 56th
LD%: 79th
HR/FB%: 158th

The fact both of these teams won their regions is mind-boggling. They have arguably the two most underwhelming profiles out of all the Super Regional teams. The biggest strength of either of these teams is Indiana State’s pitching staff and that’s by a wide margin, the problem is they can’t score runs. I have to lean TCU for the simple fact that their weakness is better than Indiana State’s weakness. TCU’s offense is infinitely better than Indiana State’s offense and that is the deciding factor. TCU is the pick.

Wake Forest’s Super Regional

Wake Forest vs Alabama 


Wake Forest’s CWS Profile:

Off K%: 40th
Off BB%: 2nd
ISO: 9th
BABIP: 121st
wRC+: 5th
GB%: 20th
LD%: 135th
Off HR/FB%: 20th

Pitching
BB%: 3rd
K%: 1st
FIP: 1st
LOB%: 1st
GB%: 13th
LD%: 86th
HR/FB%: 240th

Alabama’s CWS Profile:

Off K%: 64th
Off BB%: 47th
ISO: 38th
BABIP: 156th
wRC+: 33rd
GB%: 41st
LD%: 210th
Off HR/FB%: 32nd

Pitching
BB%: 63rd
K%: 24th
FIP: 44th
LOB%: 5th
GB%: 167th
LD%: 161st
HR/FB%: 225th

I do not see any way that Alabama gets the best of Wake Forest. Alabama is above average offensively and pitching-wise but they are not elite. To knock off Wake Forest, you have to be elite, above average will not be good enough. Unfortunately, at the time of writing this, there are no available odds for this series. Whenever it is released you can take Wake Forest with confidence.

The Bets

As always, if you are feeling frisky you can parlay these seven teams together to the tune of +5404. Again that is a lottery ticket, but you will be getting quality teams deserving of being here.

Best Bet Parlay

This parlay includes 3 of our 5 original picks to make Omaha, plus the best value in the entire Super Regionals. This parlay pays +1019. Tune into our next article that breaks down the final eight teams in Omaha. If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions on the process you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!!!


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