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2023 College Basketball Big Ten Tournament Picks & Predictions

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Where do we even begin in describing the Big Ten? The league’s best team, Purdue, has gone 3-4 since February 4. The rest of the league was a log jam. Just three games separated second place Northwestern with 12th place Wisconsin.

Was the Big Ten a highly competitive conference? Absolutely. Was it a mediocre conference too? Probably. And that mediocrity could give the conference trouble once they arrive in the NCAA Tournament.

But we’re here to identify the best candidates to cut down the nets Sunday afternoon at the United Center in Chicago. If the regular season is any indication, then picking a winner of this tournament could be the ultimate crap shoot.

Best 2023 Big Ten Tournament Bets

Let’s break down the 2023 Big Ten Tournament.

Big Ten Tournament Bracket 

Below is the complete Big Ten Tournament bracket:

Big Ten Tournament Odds

Below are Big Ten Tournament odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook:

  • Purdue +145
  • Indiana 6/1
  • Michigan State 6/1
  • Maryland 7/1
  • Northwestern 10/1
  • Illinois 13/1
  • Iowa 18/1
  • Michigan 18/1
  • Penn State 25/1
  • Rutgers 35/1
  • Wisconsin 50/1
  • Ohio State 75/1
  • Nebraska 250/1
  • Minnesota 500/1

If these odds tell you anything, it’s that this tournament is wide open, with no other team besides Purdue shorter than 6/1. I wouldn’t be surprised if a team like Illinois won the entire tournament or bowed out in its first game. And I can say the same about a lot of teams, aside from the bottom four.

Teams to Throw Out 

Wisconsin, Ohio State, Minnesota, Nebraska

It’s rare to see brand names such as Wisconsin and Ohio State playing on the first day of action. Wisconsin is still somehow on the NCAA Tournament bubble, so they can’t afford to lose to OSU in the tournament opener. Meanwhile, the Buckeyes are a complete enigma but have played slightly better as of late. However, winning five games in five days is darn near impossible. So, I’m scratching these two, plus bottom-feeders Minnesota and Nebraska, off the list.

Iowa

I’m also going to toss aside fifth-seeded Iowa. The Hawkeyes are a good offensive team and a woeful defensive team. Iowa ranks 306th nationally in effective field goal percentage defense. They’ve also lost to both Wisconsin and Ohio State, who they’d face in their first game. If they get past that, they’ll see a Michigan State team that’ll be ready to exact revenge after the Hawkeyes pulled off a miraculous comeback against them two weeks ago.

Rutgers

I’m throwing out ninth-seeded Rutgers too. The Scarlet Knights seem like a sinking ship. They’ve gone 5-8 since January 15 and have lost some atrocious games to Minnesota and Nebraska recently. Rutgers’ lackluster showing in the season finale at home against Northwestern was telling. Rutgers is still a fierce defensive team, but their offense ranks 224th in adjusted efficiency over their last 10 games. It’ll be hard to win four games in as many days when you’re struggling to hit 60 points.

Michigan

Let’s say goodbye to eighth-seeded Michigan too. The Wolverines are a team I’ve never been a fan of this season. Hunter Dickinson just hasn’t improved much, and I don’t trust their young guards of Kobe Bufkin, Jett Howard, and Dug McDaniel. I’m also not a Juwan Howard in-game believer. Plus, Michigan’s biggest advantage — Dickinson — will be neutralized by Edey should they advance to face Purdue. Odds of 18/1 are way too short.

Maryland

Lastly, I have a hard time believing in sixth-seed Maryland. Coach Kevin Willard has his team playing better down the stretch, but the Terrapins are awfully hard to trust away from home. Maryland has won just two games away from home against two dumpster fires, Louisville and Minnesota. While Maryland’s defense travels, the offense falls off a cliff away from home. You can point at wins over quadrant mates Illinois, Northwestern, and Indiana. But all those came at home. At 7/1, the price just doesn’t seem right at all.

Teams to Consider 

Purdue

Top-seeded Purdueis the rightful favorite. But even the Boilermakers seem wobbly lately. It felt as if teams had figured out how to scheme against likely Conference Player of the Year, Zach Edey. Opponents are double-teaming Edey more often in the post and are content with daring Purdue’s young guards to beat them. Purdue’s chances of cutting down the net in Chicago will come down to how well freshmen Fletcher Loyer and Braden Smith perform.

As good as Edey is, I’m not sure I can trust Purdue’s inexperienced guards in high-leverage moments. The Boilermakers aren’t much of a threat from beyond the arc either, ranking 253rd in 3-point shooting. That flaw could be their downfall in Chicago and beyond.

Northwestern

No. 2 seed Northwestern has been the conference’s best story and is a lock to make the program’s second-ever NCAA Tournament appearance. The Wildcats will also get the benefit of playing de facto home games, as their campus in Evanston, Ill., is a half-hour drive from the United Center.

The Wildcats defend their hearts out and are led by two senior guards, Boo Buie and Chase Audige. Northwestern limits mistakes, too, ranking 19th in turnover percentage. However, Northwestern isn’t exactly prolific offensively. They are a horrible shooting team both inside and outside the arc, ranking 308th in effective field goal percentage. The offense often gets stuck in the mud if Buie and Audige are struggling.

The Wildcats also will face a difficult quarterfinal matchup against either Illinois or Penn State. Northwestern lost to both teams recently. Plus, a matchup with in-state rival Illinois would mitigate any home-court advantage, as Chicago is even more of an Illinois alumni hotbed.

Indiana & Michigan State

No. 3 seed Indiana and No. 4 seed Michigan State are two teams I had circled before the bracket was finalized. And I’m thankful both teams are on opposite sides of the tournament.

Despite their inconsistencies, I still like Indiana’s ceiling in this tournament and March Madness. The Hoosiers have a stud big man in Trayce Jackson-Davis. But the loss of third-leading scorer Xavier Johnson hurts. The senior was a steadying presence in the backcourt, and now Indiana will rely even more heavily on talented freshman Jalen Hood-Schifino.

I’ve really liked what I’ve seen from the Spartans of late. Michigan State is 5-2 in its last seven, with one loss coming at Michigan after a tragic school shooting occurred on campus and the other coming in Iowa’s ridiculous late-game comeback. Tom Izzo has his team playing well in March, per usual.

The Spartans have posted four of their five most efficient offensive performances of the season in their final four games. In particular, MSU has been shooting great from 3-point range.

What’s concerning about the Spartans is they are a bit too reliant on the 3-point shot. Michigan State ranks third nationally in 3-point percentage but 280th in 2-point shooting.  Throw in that the Spartans don’t go to the foul line much and struggle on the offensive glass, and you get a team that lives and dies by the three-ball.

The same goes for the defensive end. Michigan State ranks 31st in 3-point defense but just 120th inside. That could spell doom in a potential semifinal showdown with Edey and the Boilermakers.

Illinois

Is there a team more perplexing than the seven-seed, Illinois? I initially had the Illini as a team to throw out, but then moved them here because I just can’t completely give up on them.

Illinois is a talented but frustrating bunch. They defend hard under coach Brad Underwood, ranking 34th in adjusted efficiency on that end. The offense is where things get frustrating. The Illini rank 331st in 3-point shooting and 18th in 2-point percentage. Yet, for some reason, Illinois shoots threes on more than 42% of their offensive trips. They’re also careless with the ball, ranking 209th in turnover percentage.

Illinois has the talent to go on a run. And I like their draw with Northwestern awaiting in the quarterfinals. But are they too erratic to trust to win four games in four days?

Penn State

Finally, I’m really intrigued by the 10th-seeded Penn State. The Nittany Lions are an excellent offensive team led by a star in senior Jalen Pickett, who is capable of carrying Penn State on an unprecedented run. Penn State’s top five players are all seniors, which certainly helps in March too. The Nittany Lions closed the year winning five of their last six after looking left for dead and have played their way back into the NCAA Tournament conversation. Penn State ranks eighth in 3-point shooting and shoots threes on 48% of their possessions, but they are an efficient team inside the arc as well.

The problem for Penn State lies on the defensive end, where it ranks 140th in adjusted efficiency. Penn State doesn’t turn teams over and can be susceptible against the three. However, they clean up the defensive glass and defend without fouling. The good news for Penn State is their first two opponents, Illinois and Northwestern, are terrible 3-point shooting teams.

Penn State will feel the brunt of playing against the two hometown schools. But Penn State actually scored road wins over Illinois and Northwestern this season.

Big Ten Tournament Best Bets 

This is one of the toughest Big Ten brackets to handicap in recent years, as so many of these teams are talented but tough to trust over the length of a multi-game tournament.

For that reason, I’m going to take two bites at the apple. Both teams are playing great basketball at the right time.

The “safer” pick is Michigan State. The Spartans are 3-point reliant, but they’ve found their groove offensively. I’m comfortable with a likely quarterfinal game against Iowa. And while a semifinal matchup with Purdue is intimidating, I’d trust Izzo to scheme up a way to contain Edey. If they can get past Purdue, I’d give them a good chance against anyone in the bottom half of the bracket in the title game.

The second pick is much bolder: Penn State at 25/1.

Penn State is playing its best basketball right now. They have a senior-laden team and an explosive offense led by a superstar guard. They prevent second chances, and their defensive liabilities won’t be a massive disadvantage until the semifinals should they match up with Indiana, who’s no lock to make it there. Penn State also has a 19-point win over Indiana at home on its resume.

A title game matchup with Purdue is the only matchup I’d truly fear for Penn State. But there will be hedging opportunities to be had should we get that far.

The picks: Michigan State (+600) and Penn State (+2500) 

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