2023 FireKeepers Casino 400: NASCAR at Michigan Odds, Picks & Predictions
Slips aside, we’re amid one of the greatest runs in recent stock car racing history.
No one could’ve predicted how good the racing would be in July. Yet, as a result, most NASCAR bettors I’ve spoken to have had an up-and-down last month. I know I have.
So, to wash away our waging sorrows, we head to the Great Lakes State. The Cup Series has parked at perhaps one of my favorite tracks on the circuit, Michigan International Speedway.
This two-mile, D-shaped oval is all about high speeds and low tire wear. And with just four total races left until the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs, no one can tell these 37 drivers to lift an inch. Fords have won eight straight in their backyard, while Chevrolets continue to slide in the summer heat. Toyotas have maintained, but arrive at a place where they haven’t won since 2o15 when Matt Kenseth was still in car.
The stakes are high, so we again take to our data sets to find this week’s betting edge:
- 2022 Michigan (finishes, green flag speed*, speed late in a run* & total speed rankings*)
- 2023 Pocono (finishes & total speed rankings*)
- 2023 Auto Club (finishes & total speed rankings*)
- 2023 Las Vegas (finishes & total speed rankings*)
- 2023 Charlotte (finishes & total speed rankings*)
- Driver track history
- Track trends
- Recent performance & current standing
*via ifantasyrace.com
With our high-speed intermediates comparables in our back pocket, here are our best bets to make it to the window for the FireKeepers Casino 400:
2023 FireKeepers Casino 400: NASCAR at Michigan Odds, Picks & Predictions
All bet recommendations are for 1u unless noted.
Top 5: Denny Hamlin (+120 via Caesars Sportsbook)
In case you missed it, the No. 11 car has been on fire for the last three months. Denny Hamlin has been top-six in the total speed rankings in 10 of the last 12 races, finishing T5 in six of them. Over the last three races specifically, he has an average finish of 3.3.
This team is rolling, and we want in on the action. Halmin ranks No. 1 in total speed rankings across the high-speed intermediate tracks this year and won the race at my additional comp track of Pocono. Last year at Michigan, his total speed and fastest late in a run speed ranked… well, No. 1. Hamlin was far and away the top driver in the data this week, so we’ll back him here in the prop market and on the outright.
Top 10: Tyler Reddick (-140 via Caesars Sportsbook)
I don’t bet Tyler Reddick often, as he doesn’t always produce the finishes he deserves. Michigan is a great example of that, as he’s actually never finished better than 18th in his four Cup Series races. However, a lot of that can be chalked up to bad luck. That includes last season when Reddick was running top 10 most of the day before an engine failure.
Reddick was seventh in green flag speed here last year and has been fast at most of our comp tracks this season, including:
- Top-four speed at Pocono; finished second
- Top-three speed at Charlotte; finished fifth
- Top-10 speed at Kansas; finished ninth
The No. 45 also comes into this week in great form, having top-four speed in each of the past two weeks at very different tracks. I like him to be near the front when the checkered flag waves.
Matchup: William Byron (-110) vs. Christopher Bell (-120) via Caesars Sportsbook
We’re dancing with the devil again this week, betting William Byron. But the matchups market has been great to us over the past month, and so has the premise of fading Christopher Bell. The No. 20 car has now finished 18th or worse in four of his last five races. At Michigan specifically, he has a mediocre average finish of 17.3, never finishing inside the top 10.
Meanwhile, William Byron has a 25% T10 rate and and 14.4 average finish at Michigan. His 12th-best total speed ranking and 10th-best speed late in a run propelled him to a 12th-place finish here last season. I expect Byron to run similarly, if not a bit better, considering he has the fourth-best total speed ranking across the high-speed intermediates and had the top total speed ranking at Pocono.
Other Bets on My Card:
- Denny Hamlin Outright (+650 via Caesars Sportsbook)
- Tyler Reddick Outright (+1200 via Barstool Sportsbook)
- Chase Elliot T10 (-140 via Caesars Sportsbook)
- Harrison Burton T10 (+1200 via Caesars Sportsbook) .25u
Seth Woolcock is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more sports betting and fantasy sports analysis from Seth, check out In-Between Media and follow him @Between_SethFF.