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2023 High Point 400: NASCAR at Pocono Odds, Picks & Predictions

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There’s something about the weekend when stock car racing’s premier series comes to your neck of the woods.

I’m not much of a coffee drinker, but setting in with a cup of Joe to jumpstart it just feels right… I’ll settle for my last nicotine pouch at the bottom of the can instead.

A slight buzzing sensation kicks in as I gloss over my pre-practice and qualifying betting card one more time. This is, indeed, Pocono weekend, and I am ecstatic to have NASCAR return to the great state of Pennsylvania.

Pocono Raceway, known as “The Tricky Triangle,” celebrates 50 years this weekend. This modern racing marvel is perhaps one of the most unique tracks remaining on the circuit. Each of its three turns resembles other famous racing ovals. Turn one pays homage to the retired Trenton Speedway. Indianapolis inspires the Tunnel Turn. And don’t forget the sweeping turn three, configured similarly to the Milwaukee Mile.

What also sets the track apart, other than being the only triangle on the schedule, is that it’s independently owned and operated. It’s a family thing. And would you expect anything less for a plot of land in the middle of the Pocono Mountains? 

Before I set my GPS for Long Pond, Pa., let’s look at the data sets that hopefully lead us to profitability here at Pocono:

  • 2022 Pocono (finishes, green flag speed*, speed late in a run* & total speed rankings*)
  • 2023 Auto Club (finishes & total speed rankings*)
  • 2022 Michigan (finishes & total speed rankings*)
  • Driver track history
  • Track trends
  • Recent performance & current standings

*via ifantasyrace.com

More than other tracks we’ve covered this season, we’re weighing driver track history this week. Pocono is one of those tracks where either you have it or you don’t. Yes, you’re car will need to build up speed up the back stretches to win. But drivers also have to solve the puzzle that is The Tricky Triangle to put their car into Victory Lane.

With some of my team already making their way through the mountains and me running behind, late as usual, let’s get to my best bets for the High Point 400.

2023 High Point 400: NASCAR at Pocono Odds, Picks & Predictions

All bet recommendations are for 1u unless noted.

Top 3: Kyle Busch (+160 via Caesars Sportsbook)

Kyle Busch is one of those drivers who “has it” at Pocono. He has four wins here and a bold 31% T5 rate. That mark should be even higher, as he finished second across the line last year but was disqualified along with race winner Denny Hamlin after failing post-race inspection.

In fact, since 2020, Busch has crossed the finish line here in an average position of 1.7. He also has a top-four total speed ranking in all five of those races, which is impressive when you consider the double-header weekends of 2020 and 2021.

Busch was No. 1 across the board last season in total speed ranking, green flag speed, and speed late in a run. Even though he’s now in a Chevy, I expect that speed to remain. He was second in total speed rankings and took comp track Auto Club early this year. And, after all, this is the driver who won this race with a broken shifter once.

Fastest Qualifier: Denny Hamlin (+450 via Caesars Sportsbook)

If you’re looking for a Saturday afternoon sweat, here it is. Hamlin ties Busch for the most poles here (four) among active drivers. However, Hamlin has by far and away the best average starting position in the field at Pocono, 7.6, which is the third-best mark of all time.

Hamlin took the top starting spot last season at Pocono in NASCAR’s Next Gen Car. He seems to love this qualifying format, winning the most poles (three) this season. I’ll back the raw speed of the No. 11 to kick off the weekend.

Top 10: Erik Jones (+400 via Barstool Sportsbook)

It must be something about the Pennsylvania water, but Erik Jones is a stud when racing at Pocono. He has an absurd 54% T5 rate and 64% T10 rate in 11 races at The Tricky Triangle. Last season, he finished just outside this mark in 11th, which aligns with his 11-best total speed ranking.

It’s been hard to trust Legacy Motorsports in their first season under the new name and regime. However, Jones has turned it around of late, scoring an average finish of 10th over his last three ovals. I’m shooting for the long shot in the placement prop market.

Other Bets on My Card:

Seth Woolcock is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more sports betting and fantasy sports analysis from Seth, check out In-Between Media and follow him @Between_SethFF.