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2023 Honda Classic Odds, Picks & Predictions

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Last week was pretty frustrating, even if we still managed a profit and maintain a nice bankroll in the green this season. Jon Rahm has been utterly unstoppable, leading most of us to believe that our hopeful fade on his incredibly short odds has been a folly. I still cashed three tickets at the Genesis Invitational. Riviera was a stern test for everyone except the portly Spaniard. Patrick Cantlay’s third-place finish cashed our top-5 (+500) and top-10 (+230) wagers. We also enjoyed a top-10 finish from resurgent Aussie Jason Day (+360). The wins snapped a two-week skid entering this week’s Honda Classic.

The Honda Classic is a far cry from the elevated status and star-studded fields seen to wrap up the West Coast Swing. The Florida Swing kicks off on a doozy of a course, reintroducing the players to Bermuda greens after months of Bentgrass and Poa Annua. I was all over Shane Lowry last year. He looked to be headed for victory until a wild deluge and stellar back nine by Sepp Straka on Sunday drowned his hopes. The par-70 track is made for accurate players who can stick it close to the pin on these tricky greens. The winning score at PGA National has been single-digits under par in seven of the last 10 years. Water hazards are everywhere. The Bear Trap lurks on holes 15-17, where 1,600 golf balls have been dunked in the past 15 years.

2023 Honda Classic Odds, Picks & Predictions

(Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Since there are hardly any of the world’s top players in attendance, our mastery of the lesser-known golfers will help nail down the best wagers. Good iron players who can putt on Bermuda will do well here. Bogey avoidance is also very important, along with par-4 scoring. Golfers who think their way around target courses like PGA National will have a better chance at scoring. This event is a dream for golf bettors. The lines are soft. It’s a bankroll-building type of week, even if we’re conservative with units.

Sungjae Im (Outright +1000 [1u]; Top-5 +240 [1u])

Hell hath frozen over, and I’m betting on a tournament favorite. Im is a masterful iron player and the clear class of this field. Although 10-1 odds aren’t that sweet on the surface, the lack of top competition gives me confidence as low as 8-1 on the Korean star. There was no surprise that he popped up as the second-highest-rated golfer in my weighted statistical model. He won here in 2020, after all.

Thomas Detry (Outright +3500 [1u]; Top-10 +360 [1u])

There might not be a hotter unsung hero of this golf season than Thomas Detry. He has made all 11 cuts this season and has finished in the top 40 in four-consecutive events. Detry logged two top-10 finishes in the fall wraparound schedule, including a runner-up finish in Bermuda. The icing on the cake is his game matches up well with PGA National, as he ranks fifth in the field in my model.

Ben Griffin (Outright +5000 [0.5u]; Top-10 +500 [0.5u])

This bet is the classic “trust your numbers” wager. Ben Griffin’s last Tour start ended in a missed cut at Pebble Beach, but that was his first weekend off since the Fortinet last September. Griffin is the top golfer in my statistical model. It’s no wonder since he ranks second in this field in Birdie-or-Better Percentage and third best in Par-4 Scoring. Many golf analysts compare PGA National to Wai’alea at the Sony Open. Griffin finished 12th at the Sony against a stronger field.

Hayden Buckley (Outright +5000 [0.5u])

Why do I mention the Sony Open? Wai’alea and PGA National are both par-70 tracks with similar lengths and layouts. The two courses demand the same types of shot-making. You might remember Hayden Buckley as the runner-up to Si-Woo Kim at this year’s Sony Open. He even held a sizable 54-hole lead before Kim charged down the stretch to win the event. At 50-1, I’ll take a shot on a streaky golfer with a distinct type.

S.H. Kim (Outright +6000 [0.5u]; Top-10 +1200 [0.5u]; Top-20 +250 [0.5u])

I just can’t quit Seonghyeon Kim. The blossoming Korean has been one of the most consistent performers on Tour this season, with his only blemish a missed cut at the AMEX in January. He paid off with a top-20 at the very competitive Farmers Insurance Open, then followed up with a 41st and 33rd at Pebble Beach and last week’s Genesis. This field is a crapshoot, with only a couple of recognizable names. Not many had heard of Sepp Straka before last season’s Sunday charge at the Honda Classic. Who’s to say this can’t be the breakthrough we’ve been pining for with Kim?

Total Units Played: 7.0

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