2023 Masters Odds, Picks & Predictions
Clankety, clankety, clank… The buildup into 2023’s first major has been torturous…like a rollercoaster arduously climbing to the apex before tipping over the edge and plunging into a screaming adrenaline rush. The Masters is Americana. Picture the most perfect golf course, secluded back in the holler. The whispering Georgia Pines and rambling hills still echo with Jack and Arnie, Seve and Tiger. The club is perhaps as exclusive as Heaven itself, with nary an unkempt blade of bentgrass or pine needle left askew. Azaleas abloom with the soothing Brownian buzz of cicadas put the senses on high alert. Augusta National calls us but once a year to detach from the non-golfing world. “Quiet, please.” The Masters has arrived. My weekend is painted green and white with magenta.
90 of the world’s best have gathered on these hallowed grounds at the end of Magnolia Lane. Only the top-50 players with ties will advance to the weekend to play 36 more holes named after the Southeastern flora that grace this 7,500-yard, par-72 track. Golfers will pray that Amen Corner does not derail their chances of donning a green jacket. It will require mastery of the entire golf bag, along with keeping one’s wits about them for 72 holes, in order to visit the Butler Cabin on Easter Sunday.
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2023 Masters Odds, Picks & Predictions
Augusta National Golf Club is a course for good drivers of the golf ball. It is nearly impossible to score here from the pine straw or with angles obstructed by the many lurching trees. The grass is mown tightly throughout, compounding the penalty for errant shots by rappelling shots toward the myriad natural hazards strewn about the grounds. Then there is the putting. Great respect must be given to the speed and undulation of these minuscule complexes. Three-putt avoidance is a huge stat in my weighted model. Course history must also be mentioned as a requisite strong suit on a betting slip. One does not simply waltz into the Masters and take down the best without a keen understanding of the treachery around every corner.
My personal wagers are narrowly focused and aggressive this week. Only a handful of players have the grit to win The Masters and I intend to rally behind them with confidence. Here are the best plays my bankroll will represent.
(Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Scottie Scheffler (Outright +650 [1u]; Top-5 +150 [1u]; Top-10 -150 [1u])
I firmly believe that Scottie Scheffler is going to win a few more green jackets before his career is over. His game is exactly what is required for this stage. No wonder he made it look so easy last year. There’s no need to sell this pick; Scottie is the best in the world. He drives the ball well and pairs an immaculate short game with a clutch putting stroke. This is also the first time this season that I’m laying negative odds for Scheffler to finish in the top 10.
Cameron Smith (Outright +2500 [1u]; Top-10 +240 [1u])
Of all the defectors to the LIV Tour, only one man has managed to maintain his standing in the Official World Golf Rankings. Cameron Smith is the most lethal scorer in golf from inside of 100 yards. Any semblance of moderately good play off the tee and the mulleted Aussie will bring Augusta to its knees. The LIV guys are also sporting the softest odds on the books and they continue to wane. Don’t let their standing in the golf community tarnish just how formidable guys like Smith are when the chips are down in a major tournament. Oh, and he has finished in the top 10 in three of his five appearances here.
Max Homa (Outright +2800 [0.5u]; Top-10 +260 [0.5u])
I wanted a bit of a dichotomy in my betting slip this week, partially to reflect the same awkwardness that will be in the air between members of the rival tours. Bettors seem to have forgotten how masterful Max Homa has been over the last two seasons. Like Scheffler, he has the all-around game and mental acuity to win The Masters going away. My thought process is that 28-1 is incredibly disrespectful in a limited-field event like this. I’ll snatch soft odds like this any chance I get.
Patrick Reed (Outright +6500 [0.5u]; Top-20 +190 [0.5u])
Perhaps there isn’t an athlete on the planet who has overtly destroyed his own reputation more than Patrick Reed. A good many golfers who took their talents to the LIV Tour weren’t held in high favor among peers, but Reed is universally despised. From his college days laced with allegations of theft and cheating, his professional accolades have been marred by more cheating and serving Rory McIlroy with a lawsuit on Christmas Eve. Reed could have kept his “Captain America” moniker from his Ryder Cup glory. He could have endeared himself as Georgia’s native son after winning the 2018 Masters.
Instead, Reed chose the dark path in the Elder Scrolls game “Fable.” Lost in the maddening self-sabotage is a golfer with supreme talent. His game suits Augusta so well that the sport is rightly terrified that Reed could slip on his second green jacket this week and flip the PGA Tour a Johnny Cash-esque double bird. At these odds, I’m getting the popcorn ready.
Tom Kim (Outright +8000 [0.25u]; Top-20 +220 [0.5u])
Joohyung “Tom” Kim is a golf prodigy. The 20-year-old Korean phenom is an ace, in the same way Cam Smith is, perhaps without the elite putting ability. Kim is certainly not the bomber that Augusta tends to favor, but there is a savvy to his game that leaves me giddy imagining him as the Masters champion. Tiger Woods was not supposed to win the 1997 Masters. Tom Kim is way down the list in 2023, at 80-1. Augusta National will occasionally signal the next star of the game. Kim would get a lot of people fired up about the game of golf for a long time with a storybook performance this week.
Kurt Kitayama (Outright +13000 [0.25u]; Top-20 +320 [0.5u])
Statistics can only send us down the right road so far. Where Kurt Kitayama is relatively weak at putting on bentgrass greens and scoring on par-5s, he is a long hitter who excels in proximity to the fairway (especially with long irons) and around the green. His win at the Arnold Palmer Invitational put the top golfers in the world on notice that Kitayama is tough as nails under pressure. A hot putter is the catalyst for the pride of Northern California. If Kitayama is rolling them like he was at Bay Hill, he might have to slide Arnie’s red sweater aside for a green jacket. I’ll bet on this level of talent 100 percent of the time at 130-1.
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