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2023 NASCAR at Atlanta: Quaker State 400 Odds, Picks & Predictions

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The thing about sports betting is that it’s supposed to get easier as the season progresses. In NASCAR, that’s especially true when we return to a track for the second time during the season.

That’s this weekend, as stock car racing’s premier series travels to the ATL for take two of 2023. Last time out, it was Joey Logano, fending off Brad Keselowski on the 1.54-mile superspeedway-like track to take the trophy.

If we took anything away from that race, it’s that this new configuration of Atlanta should be comped and bet like it’s a superspeedway. That means light unit allocation, as it could all go to hell at a moment’s notice.

I know some of us (myself included) are trying to recoup some bankroll following the Chicago Street Race. There were some bad beats after a caution flipped the field, and NASCAR shortened the race by 25 laps due to daylight. The betting slips went up in smoke as Shane van Gisbergen charged through the field and won in his NASCAR debut (I react to it here).

Still, this is not the time to tilt and risk it all on a track with as much variance as Atlanta has. Instead, let’s check out our data sets and make some sound betting decisions:

  • 2023 Atlanta No. 1 (finishes & total speed rankings*)
  • 2023 Daytona 500 (finishes & total speed rankings*)
  • 2023 Talladega (finishes & total speed rankings*)
  • 2022 Atlanta No. 2 (finishes & total speed rankings*)
  • 2021 Atlanta No. 1 (finishes & total speed rankings*)
  • Recent performance & current standings

*via ifantasyrace.com

Being unable to use the overall Atlanta driver history before 2022 certainly throws an extra wrench into it all again this weekend. We, instead, turn to a three-race sample at the new configuration and some 2023 superspeedway comp tracks.

That’s why our best bet for the 2023 Quaker State 400 will be proceeding with caution yet excitement.

2023 Quaker State 400: NASCAR at Atlanta Odds, Picks & Predictions

All bet recommendations are for 1u unless noted.

Top 10: Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+175 via Barstool Sportsbook)

The T5 market has become a stay-away for me on superspeedways. So I will instead take one of the best high-speed drivers in the Cup Series, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., to finish T10 at Atlanta. The No. 47 has been one of the best cars at super speedways this season in total speed rankings (third at Daytona, second at Talladega and seventh at Atlanta).

He led seven laps here in the Spring and has three superspeedway wins in his career. All signs point to Stenhouse Jr. being fast on Sunday. If he can make it to the end, he has as good of a chance as any to win and crack the top 10,

Top 10: Justin Haley (+240 via Barstool Sportsbook)

Justin Haley’s racing skills were on full display last week at Chicago as he tried to fend off Shane van Gisbergen for the win after a timely pit stop cycled him to the point. He qualified fourth the week before in Nashville and is showing us spurts of speed in his No. 31 Kaulig Racing Camaro.

When it comes to superspeedways, the 24-year-old is no stranger to success. He finished 11th and seventh in the 2022 runnings of Atlanta. In addition, he had a top-four total speed ranking at Talladega and 13th at Daytona this year. He somewhat struggled at Atlanta in the spring, finishing 22nd. Still, he had one of the fastest cars in the last quarter of the race. I like him as an undervalued T10 this week and a long-shot outright.

Matchup: Cole Custer (-105) vs. Austin Hill (-125) via Caesars Sportsbook

Welcome back to the Cup Series, Cole Custer. After claiming his second Xfinity Series victory of the season last week at Chicago, Custer got the call to man the No. 51 car for Rick Ware Racing (RWR) over the next three races. Custer has some experience with the new configuration of Atlanta, finishing ninth here in the fall.

The No. 51 car has also been better than you think at superspeedways this season. Cody Ware drove it to 14th place at Daytona and 25th at Atlanta. J.J. Yeley also wheeled it to 11th at Talladega.

I don’t need Custer to even finish that high to win this bet, just to beat Austin Hill in the Beard Motorsports No. 62 car. This is the same car that did not qualify for Daytona and was 37th in total speed ranking at Talladega. While RWR is no Stallworth themselves, they are still years ahead of Beard Motorsports. Despite Hill winning the Xfinity Series race at Atlanta in the spring, I’m fading him at all costs.

Other Bets on My Card:

  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Outright (+3000 via Barstool Sportsbook) .5u
  • Justin Haley Outright (+5000 via Barstool Sportsbook) .5u
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (-120 via Caesars Sportsbook) vs. Aric Almirola

Seth Woolcock is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more sports betting and fantasy sports analysis from Seth, check out In-Between Media and follow him @Between_SethFF.