2023 NASCAR at Dover: Würth 400 Best Bets, Picks & Predictions
Playing second fiddle isn’t ideal, but we all have to do it from time to time.
NASCAR is no stranger to this as it competes regularly for ratings with the closing round of PGA tournaments. Hell, its entire playoffs fall directly in line with the return of NFL football. This weekend, the running of the Würth 400 at Dover Motor Speedway follows up the NFL Draft.
Come Sunday, multi-sport fans will trade their mock drafts for "The Monster Mile," one of NASCAR's most unique venues. Just a stone's throw away from the University of Delaware, patrons of this mile-long track can feel the breeze coming from the nearby Delaware Bay.
We won't be intimidated by "Miles the Monster," the towering 15-year-old monster statue that greets incoming fans. We’re laying some coin once again this week with the help of our data sets:
- Dover 2022 (finishes, total speed rankings* & late-run speed*)
- 2023 Auto Club & Las Vegas (finishes, total speed rankings* & late-run speed*)
- Driver track history
- Track trends
- Recent performance & current standings
*via ifantasyrace.com
We managed to barely build the slightest of profits at Talladega last week, which is a win in my book at superspeedways. With some less-than-inspiring offerings from sportsbooks this week, we’re going big-game hunting with our best bets for the Würth 400.
2023 Würth 400: NASCAR at Dover Odds, Picks & Predictions
All bet recommendations are for 1u.
Top 5: Ross Chastain (+230 via Barstool Sportsbook)
Chevy has dominated Dover, winning 43 times to Ford’s 27 and Toyota’s seven. The bowtie brand has taken the last two, and I believe Ross Chastain may be next in line. Chastain finished third here last season, leading 86 laps, second to only Kyle Busch. It wasn’t a fluke, as Chastain sported the second-best total speed ranking that day while having the fifth-fastest car late in a run.
Though not perfect comparisons, Chastain is tied with Alex Bowman for having the best total speed ranking at the intermediate tracks (Auto Club and Las Vegas) this season. With Bowman out for the time being as he recovers from a sprint car accident, it leaves Chastain as my favorite for a T5 and an outright play.
Special: Martin Truex Jr., Chase Elliott or Ryan Blaney To Win (+325 via Caesars Sportsbook)
We’re starting to see an inflated T10 market trend, so we’ll shift grears to the special market this week.
Martin Truex Jr. is my favorite non-Chevy to win this weekend. Considered Truex Jr.’s home track, the grizzled veteran has three career wins and five T5s in his last eight races at Dover. He was running fourth here last season before the aforementioned Chastain got into him on the last lap. But make no mistake, the New Jersey native’s car was fast here, ranking third in total speed and being the fastest driver late in a run.
The No. 19 car also showed late-run speed at Las Vegas, ranking second in that category and seventh in total speed ranking across both intermediates this season.
Chase Elliot got this second-career win at Dover last season, hanging on through an overnight rain delay. His track record is insane, offering a 75% T5 rate across 12 Dover starts. If it’s not Chastain or Truex Jr. in victory lane this week, my money is on NASCAR’s most popular driver.
I don’t love Ryan Blaney this week, but he has at least two top-10 finishes at Dover. All-and-all, I like my chances with this odds boost from Caesars Sportsbook.
Group C: Justin Haley (+950 via Caesars Sportsbook)
Vs. Bubba Wallace (+120), Aric Almirola (+260), Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+360), Erik Jones (+850) & AJ Allmendinger (+950)
I said we were going big-game hunting this week, and this is where. Justin Haley has one career-Cup Series race at Dover, finishing 11th last season. In addition, his last two Xfinity Series races at Dover also resulted in an average finish of 10th.
Haley has just been OK this season. However, one of his two T10s comes at our comp track of Las Vegas, where he finished eighth and had the eighth-fastest car late in a run. Instead of betting him in the placement market, we’re playing him against these other mid-pack cars.
Every one of these drivers has been tough to trust at times this season, aside from Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Yet, if Haley’s performance here last season - where he led 19 laps - is any indication, the No. 31 car will be in the mix late. There’s a lot of betting value here, as I believe Haley can slightly edge out the other “meh” drivers in this group.
Seth Woolcock is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more sports betting and fantasy sports analysis from Seth, check out In-Between Media and follow him @Between_SethFF.