2023 NASCAR at Sonoma: Toyota/Save Mart 350 Odds, Picks & Predictions
Red or white?
That’s the question this weekend as stock car’s premiere racing series takes on Sonoma Raceway in the heart of California wine country.
Maybe it’s my country roots, but I’ll pass on both for a Busch Light Peach or two.
Either way, I’ll be wired and ready to go as NASCAR visits its second road course of the season. We had to hold our breath for multiple overtime finishes the last time the Cup Series turned right, but we hit the 10-1 outright nonetheless.
However, unlike the Circuit of the Americas (COTA), Sonoma is a gentlemen’s track. Sure, there will be bumping, running on rumble strips and grass flying. But there isn’t a chaos-enduing first turn as the race begins.
Track conditions should be cool and dry, which is needed following an absolute shitshow of a race in St. Louis last weekend. Before we jump into our unit allocation, let’s look at what data sets we’re considering:
- 2023 COTA (finishes, total speed rankings* & late-run speed*)
- 2022 Sonoma (finishes, total speed rankings,* late-run speed* & green-flag speed*)
- All other 2022 road courses (finishes & total speed rankings*)
- Driver track history
- Recent performance & current standings
*via ifantasyrace.com
An articulate intro setting the stage? Check. Data sets? Check. A corkscrew? Hopefully, the girlfriend remembered that one, as we gotta keep it moving to our best bets for the 2023 Toyota/Save Mart 350.
2023 Toyota/Save Mart 350: NASCAR at Sonoma Odds, Picks & Predictions
All bet recommendations are for 1u unless noted.
Top 3: Kyle Larson (+145 via Barstool Sportsbook)
It’s chalky; I get it. But Kyle Larson is looking for his sixth straight pole at Sonoma. While the pole won’t guarantee a T3 for the California native, it sure helps the cause. It’s been tough to pass in NASCAR this season. With no stage breaks, restarts will be limited to just cautions. And the way this track is set up, it’s much tougher to get clear early on.
Larson was the fastest car in stage No. 1 last year, leading 26 laps before being compromised by a poor pit strategy and an eventual loose wheel. He’ll pull double duty this weekend, running in the Xfinity race on Saturday night. Larson isn’t usually the best road course driver in the field, but at Sonoma, the data says he is. I’ll shoot my shot on the driver with the qualifying record on both track configurations.
Top 10: Martin Truex Jr. (+120 via Caesars Sportsbook)
The No. 19 car has won us more money this season than just about anyone. And now we get to bet him at plus money for a T10? Sign me up.
Martin Truex Jr. is first among active drivers in wins at Sonoma (three), and laps lead (213). In addition, he holds the fastest race lap ever, plus a 30% T5 rate.
While he wasn’t strong here last season - qualifying 28th - he worked his way to a top-12 total speed ranking in the final quarter of the race. Based on how he’s been racing lately (four T10s in his last five races), I’m not worried about a bad qualifying run. Let’s return to the well with Truex Jr., this time just looking for 10th place or better.
Matchup: Ryan Blaney (-118) vs. Joey (-110) via Barstool Sportsbook
Speaking of going back for seconds, we’re doing the same with Ryan Blaney this weekend in the matchup market. The No. 12 car was strong at Sonoma last season, posting a sixth-best total speed ranking and sixth-place finish. After finishing six of his last seven races with a T10, Blaney is the points leader.
Though he hasn’t been fast every week, his 12th overall total speed ranking to date is much better than teammate Joey Logano’s 17th. In addition, Logano finished 17th at Sonoma last season, which correlates with his (wait for it) 17th total speed ranking.
Blaney wins in almost every statistic I could find for Sonoma, including a T10 rate of 66% to Logano’s 38%. Let’s back Blaney again and let the good times roll.
Other Bets on My Card:
- Kyle Larson Outright (via Barstool Sportsbook)
- Kyle Larson Qualifying Winner (+250 ia Barstool Sportsbook) | .75u
- Martin Truex Jr. Outright (+2800 ia Barstool Sportsbook) | .25u
- William Byron Outright (+1000 via Barstool Sportsbook) | .5u
- William Byron Qualifying Winner (+900 ia Barstool Sportsbook) | .5u
- William Byron T10 (-182 via Barstool Sportsbook)
- Ross Chastain T10 (-134 via Basrtsool Sportsbook)
- Winner of Stage 2 Wins Race (+225 via Caesars Sportsbook)
Seth Woolcock is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more sports betting and fantasy sports analysis from Seth, check out In-Between Media and follow him @Between_SethFF.