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2023 NASCAR at the Chicago Street Course: Grant Park 220 Odds, Picks & Predictions

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Americans have never been afraid to innovate. Since kicking some British a** in 1776, it’s been 247 years of inventing and adapting to improve the lives of our people.

I guess it only makes sense that we see the same mantra on full display this July 4 weekend in the world of motorsports – specifically stock car racing. Along the shores of Lake Michigan with skyscrapers in the hazy distance, NASCAR takes on its first-ever street race.

Yeah, you read that right. Thirty-seven drivers will travel 220 miles within a 2.2-mile, 12-turn track through Chicago’s Grant Park this Sunday. While only one of these American icons will be standing in victory lane, we NASCAR gamblers have multiple outs toward profitability this holiday weekend.

As always, we’ll let the data lead us to who we’re investing in this race:

  • Road course stats since 2022 (average finish, average running position & driver rating)
  • Road course advanced metrics since 2022 (total speed rankings*)
  • 2023 road course data (finishes & total speed rankings*)
  • Recent performance & current standings

*via ifantasyrace.com

There will be variance this week, as there is with any new track. Some betting slips could go up in smoke to no fault of our own. But oddsmakers are on the heels as much as ever, trying to cap this. We intend to take full advantage with our best bets for the inaugural 2023 Grant Park 220 at the Chicago Street Course.

2023 Grant Park 220: NASCAR at the Chicago Street Course Odds, Picks & Predictions

All bet recommendations are for 1u unless noted.

Top 3: A.J. Allmendinger (+300 via Barstool Sportsbook)

A.J. Allmendinger has long been classified as a road course ringer. However, he’s just a very talented driver, no matter the track. “Dinger” enters the weekend riding four straight T15s and two straight T10s – with just one being on a road course.

The driver of the No. 16 is also one of the few in the Cup Series with street race experience, thanks to his time in Indy Car. That, plus his No. 1 in total speed ranking at road courses year to date, gives me confidence he’ll be competing for the win on Sunday.

Since 2022, Allmendinger has had a top-six total speed ranking in five of eight road courses, including four straight. This is one of the No. 16 team’s best shots to secure a spot in the playoffs. Under the gun to perform, I’m riding with the red-hot Allmendinger to score a T3 in Chi-Town.

Top 10: Daniel Suarez (+130 via Barstool Sportsbook)

Daniel Saurez seems to have thrown oddsmakers for a loop after he missed a shift, causing him to have an uncharacteristic finish outside the top 20 at Sonoma. Still, Suarez is on the uphill climb, scoring a 13.7 average finish over his last three races.

The No. 99 now heads to a road course, where he’s been sensational since 2022. He’s scored three T5s in his last eight races on non-ovals. He’s also had the sixth-best running position (13.5) and driver rating (89.7) on road courses during that span.

He had speed at Circuit of the Americas (COTA) – ranking sixth in total speed ranking – and likely would’ve been fast again at Sonoma if it weren’t for missing that shift. The Mexican-American driver won’t make the same mistake twice and will be towards the front on the streets.

Matchup: Daniel Suarez (-105) vs. Austin Cindric (-115) via Caesars Sportsbook

I’ll also be backing Suarez in the matchup market, especially here against NASCAR’s most-underperforming driver this year, Austin Cindric. Once also considered a road course ace, Cindric has struggled on all tracks in his sophomore Cup Series season. The No. 2 car hasn’t scored a T10 since March 26 at COTA. He’s paid the price, as he has the 29th-best average finish among full-time drivers this season.

Everyone expected a bounceback at Sonoma, but the Penske car finished 25th after running in the 30s for much of the day. That’s dropped his total speed ranking at road course this season to 22nd. In his last four road course races, Cindric has had top-19 speed just once. I don’t expect him to find it here. Call it a full Fourth of July fade.

Other Bets on My Card:

  • Chase Elliott Outright (+600 via Barstool Sportsbook)
  • Chase Elliott T10 (+105 via Barstool Sportsbook)
  • A.J. Allmendinger Outright (+1000 via Barstool Sportsbook)
  • Kyle Busch Outright (+1000 via Caesars Sportsbook) .5u
  • Kyle Busch T10 (-136 via Barstool Sportsbook)
  • Chevy To Win (-118 via Barstool Sportsbook)
  • Michael McDowell (-118 via Barstool Sportsbook) vs. Austin Cindric
  • Ross Chastain (-150 via Barstool Sportsbook) vs. Austin Cindric
  • Bubba Wallace Top Toyota (+1600 via Barstool Sportsbook) .25u
  • Max Verstappen to Win Austrian GP + Martin Truex Jr. to Win Chicago Street Race (+1200 via Caesars Sportsbook) .25u

Seth Woolcock is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more sports betting and fantasy sports analysis from Seth, check out In-Between Media and follow him @Between_SethFF.