2023 NBA Playoffs: Bucks vs. Heat Series Odds, Picks & Predictions

by Phil Wood |
Apr 15, 2023

Despite trailing with just 2:54 remaining in the Play-In Tournament, the Miami Heat managed to defeat the Chicago Bulls and earn the East's No. 8 seed. Their reward is a seven-game series against the No. 1 seed in the East, the Milwaukee Bucks. The series begins on Sunday, April 16th, at 5:30 PM.

Bucks Overview/Playoff Outlook

After back-to-back seasons as the No. 3 seed in the East, the Bucks are the team to beat, earning their first No. 1 seed since 2019-20. On January 1st, the Bucks lost to the Washington Wizards to drop to just 23-13. Since that game, they are 35-11, and they won 16 in a row at one point in the season. The Bucks lost in the Eastern Conference semifinals last season but won a title in 2021. They are currently the favorites at +265 to win the title again this season.

Heat Overview/Playoff Outlook

The Heat finished with the seventh-best record in the East, but they lost to the Atlanta Hawks in the NBA Play-In Tournament. They managed to defeat the Chicago Bulls to earn the No. 8 seed, but the victory was far from convincing. Last season, the Heat were the top seed in the East, but they have struggled to play at that level again this year. They're unlikely to give the Bucks a run for their money, but they have much more talent and playoff experience than a usual No. 8 seed.

Season Series

The two teams split the season series, each winning on their home court. The Heat won 108-102 on January 12th and 111-95 on January 14th. The Bucks won 123-115 on February 4th and 128-99 on February 24th.

Series Prediction

This could be a shockingly good series. Usually, the 1 vs. 8 matchup is a snooze, but the Heat are much better than a typical No. 8 seed, and the Bucks certainly would have gotten an easier matchup if the Play-In Tournament didn't exist.

The Heat finished the season 27-14 at home, and as we already mentioned, they beat the Bucks in Miami both times they played there. The bad news for the Heat is that the Bucks were the best road team in basketball this season, and they are much better now than they were back in January when the Heat beat them twice.

The Bucks will win, but the Heat will win one game at home. They may even win two.

Best Bets

Milwaukee Bucks 4-1 (+200)
During their championship run in 2021, the Bucks swept the Heat in the first round of the playoffs. But generally, no matter how good the Bucks are, they let teams pick up at least one win against them in a series. The other series they have swept since Giannis Antetokounmpo joined the team was in 2018-19 over the Detroit Pistons. This Heat team is solid enough to get a win, but the Bucks should prevent them from getting more than that.

Bucks -2.5 Games (-150)
Bucks -1.5 is as close to a lock as you can get, but the price is also -300. It's a good bet, especially if you can parlay it with something else. However, you should stick with them to win the series either 4-0 or 4-1 for half the price.

Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.

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