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2023 NBA Playoffs Odds, Picks & Predictions: Sunday (4/16)

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On Sunday, we get four more Game 1s. With another day of jam-packed action, there are a lot of opportunities for any bettor to find strong plays. Let’s take a look at a few that I have highlighted.


Sunday’s Best 2023 NBA Playoffs Bets

Season to Date: 29-25-2, +1.15 units

Los Angeles Lakers at Memphis Grizzlies

The Lakers played some exceptional basketball since they made over the roster around the trade deadline. Over the course of the entire season, they finished 13th in adjusted defensive rating, but in the last two months of the season, that number was much better. No game was more indicative of how smothering LA’s strong defense can be than the Play-In matchup with Minnesota on Tuesday. When they needed it the most, LA was capable of turning up the defense, holding the Timberwolves to just seven points in the last 11 minutes of the fourth quarter and overtime.

Memphis has been a strong defensive team all season, especially at the FedEx Forum. This led to the second-rated adjusted defense. Led by DPOY candidate Jaren Jackson, the post defense was the anchor. They held opponents to a league-low 59.7% shooting at the rim. Losing Steven Adams will be a blow to the unit, but Xavier Tillman has filled in well in his stead.

The total we’re getting right now isn’t indicative of the kind of basketball we see at this time of the season. These are two very capable defensive teams, and I expect those units to shine in this highly anticipated Game 1. We’ve already seen the under go 6-4 in the postseason this year, and I expect this game to fit that same trend.

Pick: 1.1u on Total u227.5 (-110)

Los Angeles Clippers at Phoenix Suns

The Suns shocked the NBA world when they made the blockbuster trade for Kevin Durant at the trade deadline. From a health standpoint, things haven’t worked out quite the way the Suns hoped, but they’re healthy now at the right time. This is great news for Phoenix. In their eight games with Durant in the lineup, they’re 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS, 5-0 ATS in single-digit spreads.

The firepower with Durant in the lineup next to Booker and Paul is a lot for most teams to handle. This includes the Clippers. After three straight years of top-10 adjusted defensive ratings in Los Angeles, the defense for the Clippers took a step back this year, ranking only 17th. A myriad of injuries to an older roster led to most of these struggles. Missing Paul George for this game will make things harder for the Clippers on both sides of the ball.

Phoenix is the better team, especially with George out of the lineup for Los Angeles. A healthy Kevin Durant has the Suns as the favorite to come out of the Western Conference. I like them to take care of the shorthanded Clippers and improve on an already flawless record with Durant in the lineup.

Pick: 1.1u on Suns -7.5 (-110)

Minnesota Timberwolves at Denver Nuggets

After an impressive win on Friday night, the Timberwolves get to take on the 1-seed Nuggets, who finished with the Western Conference’s best record. The Nuggets had a full week off, but this is the third game the Timberwolves have played this week.

Outside of Minnesota slowing down significantly at the end of the Lakers game, they’ve been on fire offensively in the postseason. Before an abysmal fourth quarter in LA, they had put up 86 points through three quarters and then followed it up with 120 in the win over OKC. Both the Lakers and Thunder are higher-rated defensive squads than this Nuggets group. I see the Timberwolves having success offensively again on Sunday.

On the other side of the court, the Nuggets have been an offensive juggernaut all year. Led by Nikola Jokic, they were the top shooting team in the league by eFG%. This Minnesota team was solid defensively this season, but we’ve seen defenses anchored by Rudy Gobert fall apart in the past once the postseason rolls around.

In the four matchups between these two divisional foes, the total went to the over in three contests. The Nuggets should come out firing in a year. They’ll have home court advantage in the Western Conference. I like Minnesota to have similar offensive success as they did during the Play-In tournament, and I love this game to go over.

Pick: 1.1u on Total o224.5 (-110)

Here are our other picks and best bets for Sunday:

 


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