2023 NCAA Tournament Final Four Picks & Predictions (March Madness)

by Luke Monaldo |
Mar 15, 2023

Here are my Final Four picks and predictions for the 2023 NCAA Tournament.

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South – Arizona

With Villanova not making the Dance and Kentucky underachieving, the Wildcats to look out for this March are the boys from Tucson. Lute Olsen (RIP) might not be patrolling the sidelines anymore but luckily for Arizona, neither is Sean Miller. Tommy Lloyd has his Cats once again highly seeded (Ranked 10 on KenPom) and primed for a deep March run and unlike past years, his squad has the seasoning to make said run. The Wildcats only go seven deep but those seven guys are playing like a team on a mission of late, led by Pelle Larsson, Kerr Kriisa, Cedric Henderson Jr., and 7-footer Oumar Ballo. Arizona's defense doesn't rate the best, having given up more points than anyone in the Pac-12, but they play smart defense, not fouling unnecessarily when there is no play to be made. The question is can they make enough plays on defense and continue their hot shooting to make their deep run? Arizona has proven they can simply outscore you but are also capable of winning close low-scoring games by besting the slooooooow-paced Mick Cronin offense of UCLA. If they can beat the Bruins, regardless of injuries, they are capable of beating pretty much anyone in the country.

Bonus point: How can a team with a player named Luke Champion not win? Book it!

Midwest – Texas

Texas was able to thump the Jayhawks twice in a week, winning the regular season finale in Austin and then drubbing them by 20 in Kansas City in the Big 12 Tournament Final. Texas is ranked 6th on KenPom in Adjusted Efficiency Margin and if not for a bad three-game stretch to end February very likely would have won the Big 12 Regular Season title as well. Texas has proven they can beat anyone in the country and interim coach Rodney Terry has done an excellent job of steering the ship as the Longhorns have overcome the early season loss of former head coach Chris Beard. Texas might even be under seeded as a 2, if that is even possible, and can easily make their way through arguably the easiest region in this tournament. Texas is as capable of cutting down the nets as any team in this tournament and it should surprise no one if they do.

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West – Kansas

The defending National Champion Jayhawks led by superstar Jalen Wilson and freshman sharpshooter Gradey Dick have their work cut out for them if Kansas wants to repeat. The West Region is as loaded as a region has ever been with four teams ranked in KenPom's top 10, making the West essentially the antithesis of the Midwest. The Jayhawks (#9 on KenPom), led by Hall of Fame head coach Bill Self, have the talent to make another deep run, but depth is their biggest issue. Their starting five can beat anyone in the country on any given day, but their lack of serious depth behind them also makes them capable of losing to anyone in the country on any given day. They top the West bracket where they will have to go through a gauntlet to return to the Final Four, but Self, the two-time National Champion, is arguably the best in-game tactician in the country and the best coach by basically every other metric as well. The depth issue can be negated, barring foul trouble, by the longer media timeouts during the tournament and if anyone is capable of squeezing every ounce of talent out of his roster and taking them the distance, it's Billy Eugene Self Jr.

East – Purdue

Purdue has something no one else has, one of the biggest (literally) weapons in the history of college basketball; 7'4″ Zach Edey. Edey led the Boilermakers to a 29-5 record, good enough to clear the rest of the Big Ten by an incredible three games, not surprising for the team ranked 7th on KenPom in terms of Adjusted Efficiency Margin. The giant center averaged a double-double (22.3 points, 12.8 rebounds) leading the Boilermakers in scoring in 24 of 34 games this season and in rebounding in 29 games. After starting 22-1, they inexplicably lost four of six games in an odd month of February. Since the calendar flipped to March, Purdue is 5-0 including a relatively easy run to the Big Ten Tournament championship regardless of the final scores. As I mentioned before, no one else can boast a 7'4″, 305 lb behemoth like Edey, and bettors should look for him to continue his dominance through the tournament assuming he stays healthy and out of foul trouble.

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2023 NCAA Tournament Final Four Picks & Predictions (March Madness)

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