2023 NCAA Tournament: Final Four Team Anatomy & National Champion Picks
The most important part of winning your bracket pool is picking numerous Final Four teams and picking a National Champion. Without doing either of those, you are going to be on the outside looking in. Luckily for us, we have 20 years of KenPom data we can dive into and really narrow down who fits into the Final Four profile. In previous articles, I have listed historical advancement rates for top seeds (1-4). Below I will list a couple of trends that we can use to factor into our selections.
Go Premium to access our most exclusive March Madness tools and advice >>
2023 NCAA Tournament Final Four & National Champion Picks
Final Four trends:
- 1-4 Seeds represent 78% of the 80 Final Four teams
- A (5) seed or higher has made the Final Four in 10 of the last 11 tournaments
- A 1-3 Seed has won 19 of the last 20 tournaments (UCONN (7) Seed won in 2014)
- Only 3 teams have made the Final Four with a negative TO/Reb Combo (Marquette 2003, Oklahoma 2016, and Loyola Chicago 2018)
These are some very simple but extremely effective guidelines. Let's dive into the top 1-4 seeds that have red flags and we can eliminate them from our pool of possibilities.
1-Seeds with Red Flags
Kansas
- 79th in AdjEM (5th worst (1) seed in KenPom era)
- Bottom 10 AdjOE without a Top 10 AdjDE
Alabama
- Under 2.5 TO/Reb combo (+.03)
- Top 20 Tempo/ 3pt Rate
2-Seeds with Red Flags
Arizona
- Negative TO/Reb combo (-.74)
- 79th AdjDE (5th worst (2) seed in KenPom era)
Marquette
- 80th AdjDE (4th worst (2) seed in KenPom era)
- 76th AdjEM
- Assist Rate over 56.3%
3-Seeds with Red Flags
Baylor
- Negative TO/Reb combo (-.03)
- Lost first game of conference tournament
- 83rd AdjDE (second worst (3) seed in KenPom era)
Kansas State
- 78th AdjEM (6th worst (3) seed in KenPom era)
- Top 20 Assist rate
Xavier
- Top 20 assist rate
- 69th AdjEM
- 77th AdjDE (7th worst (3) seed in KenPom)
4-Seeds with Red Flags
Indiana
- Negative TO/Reb Combo (-2.84, second worst for a (4) seed in KenPom era)
- 77th AdjEM (7th worst (4) seed in KenPom era)
Virginia
- 78th AdjEM (6th worst (4) seed in KenPom era)
As you can see, we have a plethora of teams with red flags, enough so that Taylor Swift could write a song about it. This does make it a little easier to wade through and possibly spot some value. I am going to list the rest of the teams in the tournament with a negative TO/Reb combo just to weed through some of the higher seeds.
Teams with a negative TO/Reb Combo
- Baylor
- Saint Mary's
- Michigan State
- Illinois
- Texas Southern
- Fairleigh Dickinson
- Howard
- Creighton
- Vermont
- USC
- Indiana
- Grand Canyon
- UNC Asheville
- VCU
- Boise State
- Penn State
- Nevada
- Utah State
Not a ton of quality teams on there, but it does narrow potential Cinderella teams down. Let's dive into my picks from each Region and then we will pick a National Champion.
South Region
This is possibly the most up-in-the-air region in the whole bracket. Pretty much every one of the top seeds has red flags that give us pause about a Final Four trip. I am going to go with two teams that potentially can bust through with solid odds.
San Diego State
- 43rd AdjEM
- 57th AdjOE
- 26th AdjDE
- 50th TO/Reb Combo
San Diego State is +1500 to make the Final Four, and they offer the best profile/path to make it. Charleston will be a tough first-round game, but if they end up playing Virginia in the second round, they could cruise to the Sweet 16.
West Virginia
- 11th AdjEM
- 6th AdjOE
- 71st AdjDE
- 22nd TO/Reb Combo
West Virginia is obviously an unbalanced team, but that is what you are looking for in a long-shot team. They would need to beat Alabama in the second round, but that is baked into the price. West Virginia is +1800 to make the Final Four.
East Region
The winner of this bracket will more than likely come from the top half. Marquette and Kansas State are abysmal 2- and 3-seeds, while Tennessee lurks as a possible problem for Purdue. Purdue is underwhelming as a 1-seed and leaves much to be desired.
Tennessee
- 16th in AdjEM
- 60th in AdjOE
- 4th in AdjDE
- 4th in TO/Reb Combo
Tennessee, on paper, has not looked great of late. They have struggled to show any type of consistency, but they profile well in this bracket. A matchup with either Oral Roberts or Duke in the second round will be tough, but they should be able to compete in all facets of the game. Tennessee is +550 to make the Final Four.
Kentucky
- 52nd in AdjEM
- 10th in AdjOE
- 77th in AdjDE
- 17th in TO/Reb Combo
Kentucky as a 6-seed is an unfamiliar sight, but they draw an incredible side of the bracket. Providence is horrendous defensively (98th in AdjDE). Kansas State in the second round is the worst 3-seed in the tournament, and a meeting with possibly Marquette in the Sweet 16 would be beneficial, too, as they are the worst 2-seed in the tournament. Kentucky is +850 to make the Final Four, and there is plenty of value in that line.
Midwest
Houston, if healthy, draws a pretty easy walk to the Final Four. Indiana and Miami are historically bad as 4-and 5-seeds. Iowa, in the second round, has the worst defense in the KenPom era for an 8-seed, and Auburn is balanced but not elite in any of the categories. Texas and Texas A&M on the bottom side of the bracket could cause problems, but that seems to be it.
Houston
- 42nd in AdjEM
- 53rd in AdjOE
- 40th in AdjDE
- 1st in TO/Reb Combo (1-seeds ranking top 10 in this category have made Final Four at 80% rate)
Houston will matchup well with everyone in this bracket. Texas will possibly be their biggest challenge, but they should be able to overcome them without too many issues. Houston is +135, and that is the lowest of the tournament, but it is warranted.
West Region
This region is pretty straightforward for me. Kansas is the worst 1-seed in the tournament, and UCLA is the best 2-seed in the tournament. Gonzaga is solid but boasts a historically bad defense for a 3-seed at 78th in AdjDE. UCONN is an elite 4-seed, but they are a 4-seed for a reason, and there isn't a ton of value in any possible Cinderellas.
UCLA
- 13th in AdjEM
- 62nd in AdjOE
- 10th in AdjDE
- 1st in TO/Reb Combo
UCLA has arguably the best profile in the entire tournament. They also draw teams that will struggle with their style of play. Kansas is historically bad as a 1-seed, and if they make it to the Elite Eight, they will struggle with UCLA. UCLA at +330 to make the Final Four is my favorite play of the entire tournament.
National Champion
The characteristics we will be sticking to for a National Champion are pretty straightforward. These trends make sense and are where we will stay when it comes to picking our tournament champion.
- 19 of the last 20 champions have been a 1-3 seed
- Zero of the last 20 champions have had a negative TO/Reb margin
- Zero champions have had an AdjDE greater than 96
- Zero champions have lost their first conference tournament game
- Zero champions have had an AdjEM under 19
Only a few teams meet these qualifications without having any red flags burdened by their seed analysis. There is really only one team I feel confident laying a bet down on to win it all, and that is UCLA. UCLA at +1200 checks all the necessary boxes and offers better value than the underwhelming 1-seeds. Texas was a close second pick for me, but they have an infinitely tougher road and only offer a slight uptick in value.
I hope you have enjoyed all these articles leading up to the tournament as much as I have enjoyed writing them. Thanks so much, and if you have any questions or want more information, follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!!!
Be sure to enter our FREE Bracket Contest for your chance to win a LIFETIME BettingPros & FantasyPros premium subscription and a signed Giannis Antetokounmpo jersey. Plus, use the Bracket Optimizer to leverage expert picks, historical performance, betting odds, and more to make your winning brackets for every contest.
Win Prizes in our FREE Bracket Contest >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts