2023 NCAA Tournament: Midwest Region Teams to Fade (March Madness)
It's the most wonderful time of the year. March Madness is finally back in all its glory, with the bracket released Sunday evening. Now is the time to completely stress about every decision over the next 48 hours before your bracket is immediately busted.
A major part of the tournament, of course, are upsets. Here, I will be identifying some of the higher-ranked teams that may be at a higher risk for an upset than it seems on the surface out of the Midwest region
(3) Xavier
Teams with a lopsided approach tend to underperform in the tournament compared to the expected win total, as Will Warren (@statsbywill) pointed out on Twitter. Xavier, ranking ninth in adjusted offensive efficiency and 72nd in defensive efficiency, registers as one of those teams at risk.
If we look back at tournament history, the two-seeded Ohio State team that fell to Oral Roberts ranked fourth in offense and 85th in defense. Four-seeded Arizona in 2018 ranked 11th in offense and 78th in defense. Four-seeded Wichita State ranked fourth in offense and 84th in defense. Five-seeded Iowa a year ago, the hottest team at the time, ranked first in offense and 43rd in defense. Notice a pattern?
Sure, there are plenty of teams who are all-around solid and still get upset, but there is a higher risk for these teams that rank outside the top 50 defensively, opening the door for a lot more shots to fall for their opponent. Kennesaw State might not handle Xavier, but the Owls do rank 33rd in shooting from beyond the arc where Xavier struggles to defend. Don't be surprised to see Xavier exit early.
(4) Indiana
I hate to write this – as I was big on IU entering the tournament – but they simply do not line up well against Kent State. There is a reason this game is only a four-point difference with the line as low as 3.5 at some books.
Kent State has one of the best interior defenses in the country, with opponents scoring fewer than 47 percent of their points from inside the arc, 325th in the nation. That is where Indiana takes all their shots. Yes, Trayce Jackson-Davis is solid but Kent State has faced Gonzaga and Houston already, going toe-to-toe with both of them.
To go with this, early data on ESPN brackets reveals that 82 percent of users are selecting Indiana despite KenPom giving them a 63 percent chance to win, so this is a great leverage spot in your bracket too. There have only been six-four seeds to enter the tourney ranked 30th or worse on KenPom, and only one of them made it past the first weekend.
Bottom Line
The one and two seeds in Houston and Texas, respectively, I see as safe options. Houston, with the presumed health of Marcus Sasser, is my champion pick while Texas is playing their best basketball right now and don't have any glaring holes to be exploited by from either Texas A&M or Penn State. The two Texas schools appear to have a date in the Elite 8 where they will dance for a chance at a trip to Houston.
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