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2023 NCAA Tournament: South Region Teams to Fade

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Theoretically, the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament should have the most manageable path of all 68 tournament teams. The selection committee often doesn’t accomplish this task, but they did this year. While no road to the Final Four is easy, the South Region is clearly Alabama’s to win.

Each of the top seeds in their regions possesses flaws. No. 2 seed Arizona is filled with firepower, but their guards are erratic. No. 3 Baylor can shoot the lights out from three but play absolutely no defense. No. 4 Virginia plays a grinding style but struggles mightily to put the ball in the basket.

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2023 Tournament: South Region Teams to Fade

Obviously, we have to advance someone in our brackets. But here are the three South Region teams that I’ll be fading.

(4) Virginia Cavaliers 

Maybe I just like picking on Virginia. During the 2021 tournament, I picked on Virginia as a four-seed against Ohio, and the Cavaliers got beat. After missing the NCAA Tournament last season, I’m picking on Virginia again.

This is another classic Tony Bennett team. The Cavaliers play at almost the slowest pace in the nation and play their patented pack line defense with the goal of clogging the paint and eliminating drives into the lane. But while the foundation of Virginia remains intact, there are certainly cracks in the foundation.

The Cavaliers give up a bevy of threes by design but have struggled to defend them, allowing opponents to shoot 34% from deep. Their first-round opponent Furman has the 13th-highest 3-point rate in the country.

Offensively, Virginia has fallen off a cliff recently. The Hoos rank 177th in adjusted offensive efficiency over their last 10 games. And they lost one of their best forwards, Ben Vander Plas, to a season-ending injury.

Virginia can take away Furman’s transition and interior game. But the Paladins rank first in the country in 2-point percentage and should be able to find ways to get in the lane. If Furman can hit enough threes, they’ll have a great chance at an upset.

(7) Missouri Tigers

Missouri is such a hard team to trust. The Tigers can light it up offensively. But they are a dreadful defensive team, ranking 274th in effective field goal percentage. Their first-round opponent, Utah State, is the 11th-best shooting team in the country.

Uh oh.

The Aggies aren’t elite when it comes to protecting the ball, but they won’t be a turnover machine against a Tigers defense that often can’t get stops without takeaways. Utah State is also a better defensive team.

And even if Mizzou gets by Utah State, I find it hard to see them beating an Arizona team that can match their scoring firepower and is much stronger defensively.

(3) Baylor Bears

This one could come back to bite me, but Baylor’s a total wild card in this tournament. The Bears live and die by the three, ranking 22nd in 3-point rate and 31st in 3-point percentage. When those shots are falling, they’re close to unbeatable. And Baylor’s trio of Adam Flagler, LJ Cryer, and Keyonte George is one of the best groups in the country. But when they’re not hitting shots, Baylor relies heavily on offensive rebounding and getting to the free-throw line.

Unlike past iterations, these Baylor Bears do not defend either. They rank 99th in adjusted defensive efficiency and 315th in post defense. The interior is where UC-Santa Barbara lives, as they rank 341st in 3-point rate and 24th in 2-point shooting.

The Gauchos put an emphasis on limiting 3-point looks, ranking 23rd in defensive 3-point rate. They can also clean up the defensive glass (75th in defensive rebounding) and are average when it comes to sending opponents to the line.

I think the narrative that Baylor should be on upset alert is a bit overblown. UCSB hasn’t played a single Power 5 program this season. But the Gauchos are a tricky matchup for a Baylor team that is one bad shooting night away from going home.

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