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2023 NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 PrizePicks Player Predictions: Thursday

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The second weekend of the NCAA Tournament gets started on Thursday. The Sweet 16 round features eight incredible games that will leave fans captivated both Thursday and Friday evening. I’ve gone through the PrizePicks board for Thursday to find some value legs.

Also, take a look at our other best bets for Thursday:

2023 NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 PrizePicks Player Predictions

Here are three sides to parlay together and help get your weekend started off hot.

Jaden Akins Under 11.5 Points

Akins has been a key factor in Michigan State’s late surge. PrizePicks is setting the Akins point line at 11.5, and I like that to go under.

Akins has started 24 games for the Spartans on the season. He’s managed to go over 11.5 in nine of those starts. The numbers become even starker when we look at games against opponents that resemble Kansas State defensively, more specifically, top-90 eFG% defenses. Against those opponents, he managed to go 10–3 to under 11.5, averaging only 8.2 PPG.

Much of the rest of the market has Akins’ point total at 10.5, with some books offering 11.5 but heavily juiced to the under. This gives great value to PrizePicks and makes it one of my favorite plays for Thursday.

Alijah Martin Under 19.5 P+R+A

It’s admittedly not very exciting to look at a board and find a bunch of unders that you like, but after last weekend, it looks like the right side. In the FAU-Tennessee matchup on Thursday night, I like another under, Alijah Martin, u19.5 PRA.

Martin has been a key piece of the FAU offense and has had some really outstanding performances this year, but this Tennessee team will be like nothing the Owls have faced all year. Tennessee grinds the game to a halt reducing possessions on both sides of the floor and playing physical defense. In three games against high-major opponents, Martin hasn’t reached 20+ PRA in any of them. The Owls have also faced five opponents that average 18 seconds or longer per possession on both sides of the floor. In those games, he went 4-1 to u19.5, averaging 15.8 PRA.

Reducing possessions obviously is going to take away scoring and assist opportunities, but the physical Tennessee defense will make it difficult on Martin. Tennessee allows under 50% eFG% to opponents on the season. In nine games this year where FAU played similar field goal defenses, he went 8-1 to the under.

This is going to be a really exciting game on Thursday but be prepared for a low-scoring slugfest. 19.5 is just way too high of a number here. Martin could easily go under and still have a very effective game.

Adem Bona Under 5.5 Rebounds

Let’s make this a clean unders sweep. Gonzaga and UCLA have a great history of providing incredibly riveting NCAA Tournament games, and this one should be no different. While you may be sweating a spread or total ticket late into Thursday night, you can feel comfortable taking Bona’s u5.5 rebounds on PrizePicks.

First off, Bona is still banged up. He missed the PAC-12 Tournament Championship and the First Round NCAA Tournament game, returning for the Second Round matchup against Northwestern. In that game, he played 20 minutes while managing just one rebound, well under his 5.3 RPG average.

Gonzaga is a top-100 team in both OREB% and DREB%, and overall a pretty good rebounding team. In games against other top-100 teams in both categories, Bona was 9-3 to u5.5 rebounds on the year. Even if fully healthy, u5.5 would be a play I would lean towards. Given that Bona doesn’t seem 100% healthy, it just makes the play more attractive and one of my favorite PrizePick legs for Thursday.

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