2023 NCAA Tournament West Region Betting Primer (March Madness)
The West Region is absolutely loaded and filled with potential storylines galore. This region features 10 teams ranked inside the top 50 on KenPom.com, including five of the top 11. That’s straight up ridiculous.
It’s safe to say the West is truly best. Expect this region to deliver some of the greatest games during March Madness. And whichever team survives this group will surely be battle tested heading to Houston.
Below is an overview of each West Region team, along with a prediction on how far each team goes.
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2023 NCAA Tournament West Region Betting Primer
(Odds courtesy DraftKings)
(1) Kansas Jayhawks (27-7 SU, 16-18 ATS, 16-18 O/U)
Odds to make the Final Four: +350
Strengths: Experience and strength of schedule. The defending champions have the most Quad 1 wins in the country, 17 to be exact, and a superstar in Jalen Wilson. Kansas isn’t as dynamic offensively as last year’s team, but they make up for it with a defense that ranks 11th in adjusted efficiency, per Bart Torvik.
Weaknesses: Depth. Bill Self’s bunch only has five guys they can truly count on, and things could get perilous if someone gets into foul trouble. Kansas prefers to play fast, but sometimes struggle with taking care of the ball.
X-factor: Freshman Gradey Dick has the power to propel Kansas on a deep tournament run or sink their chances early on. We saw how inconsistent he can be in the Big 12 Tournament. He shot 50% in KU’s first two games before going 3-for-11 in the championship loss to Texas.
Prediction: Kansas has the best in-game coach in college basketball. That’ll get them through to the second weekend. But that’s where the repeat run ends.
(2) UCLA Bruins (29-5 SU, 20-13-1 ATS, 15-19 O/U)
Odds to make the Final Four: +275
Strengths: UCLA has experience and a well-rounded team under an elite coach. The Bruins aren’t an overly efficient offense, but have two guys who can get buckets in Jaime Jacquez Jr. and Tyger Campbell. UCLA is also No. 2 in defensive efficiency metrics.
Weaknesses: UCLA looked like a team poised for a deep run, but then the injury bug struck. Third-leading scorer Jaylen Clark was lost for the season, and the status of freshman big man Adem Bona is uncertain. UCLA’s lack of front court depth was exposed in the PAC-12 title game loss to Arizona.
X-factor: Senior guard David Singleton has taken a backseat to the Jacquez, Campbell, Clark trio. However, he needs to step up as a tertiary scorer to take the onus off his fellow veterans.
Prediction: UCLA has enough star power to outlast Northwestern or Boise State in the Round of 32. But their tournament hopes are dashed in the Sweet 16.
(3) Gonzaga Bulldogs (28-5 SU, 14-18 ATS, 19-13 O/U)
Odds to make the Final Four: +425
Strengths: Can a lack of pressure be a strength? For Gonzaga, it actually might be. After years of disappointing as a one seed, the Zags come in a little under the radar this year. Maybe that benefits them. Gonzaga also still has Drew Timme and the most efficient offense in the country.
Weaknesses: Gonzaga’s defense is a glaring concern. The Bulldogs rank 243rd in effective field goal defense.
X-factor: I’m curious to see what Chattanooga transfer Malachi Smith can bring to the table in this tournament run. If he lights it up, the Zags could go on a deep run.
Prediction: Gonzaga wins a track meet with TCU and outweighs UCLA with their talent, but the dream ends in the Elite Eight.
(4) Connecticut Huskies (25-8 SU, 21-12 ATS, 18-15 O/U)
Odds to make the Final Four: +400
Strengths: Balance. UConn is a balanced juggernaut. They rank 6th in offensive efficiency and 20th in defensive efficiency. They have star power at guard and not one but two dominant big men.
Weaknesses: Connecticut has two flaws: they get sloppy with the ball (237th in turnover percentage) and foul a ton defensively (321st in opponent free throw rate). Those are two potentially fatal flaws for an otherwise elite team.
X-factor: Sophomore Jordan Hawkins has the talent to take UConn on a Shabazz Napier and Kemba Walker type of run. But does he have the consistency?
Prediction: UConn makes the Final Four.
(5) St. Mary’s Gaels (26-7 SU, 17-13-2 ATS, 16-16 O/U)
Odds to make the Final Four: +1000
Strengths: St. Mary’s knows how to control games. They play at a glacial pace, shoot the three ball exceptionally and have a strong interior defense. St. Mary’s is also one of the best rebounding teams in the nation.
Weaknesses: The Gaels were overpowered by Gonzaga in the West Coast Championship game, which leaves some doubt heading into March. St. Mary’s style of play makes it hard for them to come back from a deficit. St. Mary’s also struggles against pressure defense, which spells trouble against their first-round opponent.
X-factor: Freshman Aidan Mahaney can fill up the box score, but needs to do so consistently.
Prediction: St. Mary’s survives a scare from VCU, but loses in the Round of 32.
(6) TCU Horned Frogs (21-12 SU, 16-17 ATS, 16-17 O/U)
Odds to make the Final Four: +1200
Strengths: TCU loves to run. TCU’s identity is transition and using turnovers to fuel their transition game. Mike Miles Jr. has the talent to become a hero this March and when the Frogs miss shots, they do a great job of generating second chance opportunities. The Frogs also defend the perimeter exceptionally well.
Weaknesses: TCU struggles mightily in shooting, ranking 338th in 3-point percentage. When they can’t run, the offense can stall. The Frogs will also miss big man Eddie Lampkin, an offensive rebounding machine who left the team before the Big 12 Tournament over alleged racial remarks from coach Jamie Dixon.
X-factor: The Lampkin situation is impossible to quantify, but it could be a damaging distraction.
Prediction: TCU falls in the second round.
(7) Northwestern Wildcats (21-11 SU, 19-13 ATS, 11-20-1 O/U)
Odds to make the Final Four: +3500
Strengths: The Wildcats defend the heck out of you. The Cats earned their second ever NCAA Tournament bid thanks to a defense that ranks 14th in efficiency and 40th in 2-point defense. Northwestern is led by the experienced backcourt tandem of Boo Buie and Chase Audige.
Weaknesses: Aside from Buie and Audige, Northwestern doesn’t have much of a scoring punch. The Cats rank 319th in effective field goal percentage. They are also susceptible to giving up a bunch of threes.
X-factor: Who can emerge as that third scorer behind Buie and Audige?
Prediction: The Wildcats suffer a first round upset.
(8) Arkansas Razorbacks (20-13 SU, 16-17 ATS, 14-19 O/U)
Odds to make the Final Four: +1400
Strengths: Arkansas has plenty of talent, including three potential NBA draft picks. Nick Smith is the headliner, and Arkansas is a well-coached team that’s got plenty of tournament experience. The Razorbacks are a strong defensive team (13th in adjusted efficiency) and can score inside. They also get to the free throw line at a high rate.
Weaknesses: Arkansas’ talent hasn’t quite gelled this season. The Razorbacks are a perplexing team that can’t and won’t shoot threes. The Razorbacks can also get careless with the basketball thanks to a frenetic pace.
X-factor: The Razorbacks will go as far as freshman Nick Smith takes them. If he’s running hot, the Razorbacks are plenty capable of a run to the second weekend. If he’s off his game, they could get bounced early.
Prediction: Arkansas wins a tight game against Illinois and gives Kansas a run for its money but falls short.
(9) Illinois Fighting Illini (20-12 SU, 17-14 ATS, 14-17 O/U)
Odds to make the Final Four: +3500
Strengths: Much like Arkansas, Illinois is a talented team capable of turning heads in this tournament. The Illini make 55% of their interior shots, rank 16th in interior defense and do an exceptional job at preventing 3-point attempts.
Weaknesses: Illinois can’t put its talent together either. The Illini are incredibly inconsistent. They rank 331st in 3-point shooting, yet shoot threes on 42% of their trips down the floor. Why? Inconsistent teams usually have turnover troubles, and the Illini fit that box as well.
X-factor: Which Terrence Shannon Jr. are we going to get?
Prediction: Illinois loses a back-and-forth tilt against Arkansas.
(10) Boise State Broncos (24-9 SU, 16-14-2 ATS, 15-16-1 O/U)
Odds to make the Final Four: +2200
Strengths: Boise State is a stingy defensive team that takes care of the ball and is capable of shooting from deep. They clean up the defensive glass and defend well without fouling often.
Weaknesses: The Broncos don’t have much of a presence in the post and are a relatively undersized team.
X-factor: Sophomore forward Tyson Degenhart is a capable inside and outside scorer and could be a matchup issue for Northwestern.
Prediction: Boise State advances past the Cats before falling to UCLA.
(11) Nevada Wolf Pack (22-10 SU, 19-11-1 ATS, 18-13 O/U)
Odds to make the Final Four: +7000
Strengths: Nevada takes care of the ball, gets to the free throw line and cleans up the defensive glass.
Weaknesses: Nevada isn’t a great shooting team and doesn’t pull down any offensive rebounds. That’s not the best combination. Nevada also ended the year on a three-game losing skid. This feels like another flop team from the Mountain West.
X-factor: Senior Jarod Lucas needs to find his stroke from deep against a stout Arizona State defense.
Prediction: Nevada’s tournament ends in Dayton.
(11) Arizona State Sun Devils (22-12 SU, 15-19 ATS, 17-17 O/U)
Odds to make the Final Four: +6000
Strengths: Arizona State is a strong defensive team that ranks 22nd in effective field goal percentage.
Weaknesses: The Sun Devils are inept offensively, ranking 311th in effective field goal percentage. For as good as ASU is defensively, they are extremely susceptible on the defensive glass. They also foul a good amount.
X-factor: Senior 7-footer Warren Washington must be more effective than he was in the PAC-12 Tournament.
Prediction: ASU grinds down Nevada, but falls to TCU.
(12) VCU Rams (26-7 SU, 17-15-1 ATS, 14-19 O/U)
Odds to make the Final Four: +5000
Strengths: Pressure, pressure, pressure. The havoc is still alive for VCU. The Atlantic 10 champs are sixth in defensive turnover rate and clamp down both the perimeter and interior.
Weaknesses: VCU is incredibly sloppy with the ball and relies heavily on getting to the free throw line, yet shoots just 69.5% from the charity stripe.
X-factor: Can VCU find consistent scoring from literally anyone?
Prediction: VCU fights hard but goes down in the first round.
(13) Iona Gaels (27-7 SU, 20-14 ATS, 15-19 O/U)
Odds to make the Final Four: +7000
Strengths: Iona plays great defense. They shut down 3-point shots, they stifle the interior and they turn teams over. The Gaels are also coached by Rick Pitino. They take care of the ball, make 36% of their threes and pull down offensive boards.
Weaknesses: Iona struggles on the defensive glass, a bad recipe against UConn, and can foul excessively on defense. They also didn’t play a Power 5 program this year.
X-factor: Does Pitino already have his sights set on either the St. John’s or Georgetown job?
Prediction: Pitino’s Gaels put up a fight in the first half, but ultimately talent prevails and sends them packing.
(14) Grand Canyon Antelopes (24-11 SU, 14-18 ATS, 24-8 O/U)
Odds to make the Final Four: +10000
Strengths: The Antelopes aren’t afraid to bomb threes. Better yet, they make them nearly 38% of the time. The Antelopes also get to the foul line often and actually rank 37th in effective field goal defense.
Weaknesses: Grand Canyon often lives and dies by the three and are one of the more undersized teams in the field. They also barely force turnovers and struggle on the defensive glass.
X-factor: Are the threes falling? If so, Grand Canyon could make Gonzaga work.
Prediction: First round exit.
(15) UNC Asheville Bulldogs (27-7 SU, 16-14-2 ATS, 16-16 O/U)
Odds to make the Final Four: +40000
Strengths: The Bulldogs get to the line and are the nation’s sixth-best 3-point shooting team. Asheville also defends the three exceptionally well.
Weaknesses: The Bulldogs’ strengths on the perimeter aren’t as important against a UCLA team that hardly shoots from deep. UNC Asheville also turns the ball over a ton (301st in turnover rate) and struggles on the glass.
X-factor: Can the Bulldogs hit enough threes to pull a massive upset?
Prediction: UCLA handles UNC Asheville rather easily.
(16) Howard Bison (22-12 SU, 18-13 ATS, 15-16 O/U)
Odds to make the Final Four: +30000
Strengths: Howard doesn’t shoot a ton of threes, but they rank 30th nationally in making them. The Bison also forced a ton of turnovers this season.
Weaknesses: Howard is 356th in turnover percentage offensively. They can’t clean up the defensive glass and are inefficient inside.
X-factor: Freshman Marcus Dockery is a spark plug who can help Howard pull off the cover against Kansas.
Prediction: First round exit.
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