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2023 NCAA Tournament: Which No. 1 Seed Will Lose First?

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The story of the 2023 college basketball season has been that there isn’t a clear-cut front-runner to cut down the nets in Houston at the Final Four. Each of this year’s four No. 1 seeds bring clear strengths to the table, but they’re also more vulnerable than most years.

Let’s break down Alabama, Houston, Kansas and Purdue to determine which team will see their tournament dreams end first.

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2023 NCAA Tournament: Which No. 1 Seed Will Lose First?

Here’s a closer look at all four 1-seeds.

Alabama Crimson Tide 

Can Alabama overcome off-court distractions? 

If Alabama is to win the national title, it’ll have to overcome an unusual amount of scrutiny because of the Brandon Miller situation. Miller hasn’t been charged with a crime, but the heat on him and the program will only intensify as the season progresses. Alabama could face more hostile crowds as the tournament goes on too.

That pressure could eventually weigh the Tide down, but it might not affect them until the second weekend when they leave Birmingham.

There’s no doubting Alabama’s talent 

On the floor, Alabama is undeniable. The Crimson Tide is an elite offensive and defensive team. They’re practically unbeatable when they get rolling in transition, and the 3-point shots are falling. But Alabama isn’t an overly efficient 3-point shooting squad, making just 33.8% of such shots. And that fast tempo can lead to mistakes, as Bama ranks 242nd in turnover percentage.

In the SEC Tournament final against Texas A&M, Alabama proved it could win – and even dominate a game against teams that are capable of slowing them down. That’s extremely encouraging, as their path could be littered with teams that prefer to play slow.

Evaluating Alabama’s path

This might be weird to say, but Alabama’s second-round game could be its toughest before the Elite Eight.

Some could argue West Virginia is a grossly under-seeded team. The Mountaineers are ranked as the 17th-best team on KenPom.com and the 19th-best team on Torvik. But they’re a nine seed because they finished near the bottom of a loaded Big 12 conference. Maryland won’t be an easy out either because of how hard they defend.

From there, Virginia or San Diego State likely awaits. Virginia would be a fascinating matchup, as the Cavaliers play at a drastically slower pace. San Diego State is also more on the methodical side.

Alabama will most likely have to get through either Arizona, Baylor or Creighton to get to Houston. Creighton is highly talented but also inconsistent. Baylor is a poor man’s version of Alabama; they bomb threes but can’t defend at all. And Arizona plays at a breakneck pace, which Alabama will gladly take in the Elite Eight.

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Houston Cougars 

Is Marcus Sasser healthy? 

Houston can probably get through to the second weekend without leading scorer Marcus Sasser. But Houston is certainly more vulnerable without him.

Houston can bully its way to Sweet 16

Eventually, Houston will run into a strong defensive team that can keep them off the offensive glass. And Houston may ultimately go down because they can’t make enough shots. The Cougars rank 149th in 3-point shooting and don’t get to the charity stripe often.

But Houston can likely succeed with its physically imposing style in the first two rounds. Northern Kentucky plays a zone defense that makes it one of the worst defensive rebounding teams in the country. Auburn and Iowa aren’t good rebounding teams, either.

Evaluating Houston’s path 

Houston also has the luxury of being grouped with two vulnerable four and five seeds. Indiana and Miami both could get picked off by Kent State and Drake, a couple of potential giant killers. But in the Elite Eight, Houston will run into either state rival Texas, high-flying Xavier or hard-nosed defensive teams like Iowa State or Texas A&M. Texas is the most complete team and could give Houston the most issues of that bunch.

Kansas Jayhawks 

Kansas’ depth in question

The Jayhawks have a leader and star in Jalen Wilson. But there are question marks beyond him. Kansas needs Dajuan Harris, Kevin McCullar, KJ Adams and Gradey Dick to support Wilson if they are to go back-to-back. But Kansas also lacks depth, with those five players getting most of the minutes. If Kansas gets into foul trouble against a physical team like Arkansas, they could go home early.

Despite their depth issues, Kansas has arguably the best coach in the country in Bill Self. Kansas will always have the advantage in that department.

Evaluating Kansas’ path 

Kansas could also be tested in its second-round game. Arkansas and Illinois are both totally erratic but capable of going on a deep tournament run. The Jayhawks won’t have a cakewalk to the second weekend, especially against an Arkansas squad with three NBA draft picks and an outstanding head coach in Eric Musselman.

Unfortunately, life only gets harder for KU in what many deem the group of death. In the Sweet 16, Kansas would likely face either UConn or St. Mary’s, who both present their unique matchup challenges. Get through that, and UCLA, Gonzaga or Big 12 foe TCU await.

The road to Houston is littered with landmines for the defending champions.

Purdue Boilermakers 

Is this the Purdue team that defies history? 

Purdue has a precedent for disappointment. And over time, the program’s inability to win the big one becomes baggage that adds up with every season. Can this year’s squad be the one for Matt Painter? They’ve already won the Big Ten tournament. But even that run featured some dicey moments.

Who can support Zach Edey?

Purdue has the foundation. Zach Edey will be the national player of the year, and he’s a dominant force Purdue can rely upon. But who can step up to support him? The Boilermakers rely on junior wing Mason Gillis as a 3-point spark plug but will depend upon freshmen guards Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer. Relying on freshmen guards in March is typically a formula for disaster. And opposing teams will certainly take notice of Purdue’s inability to break a press against Rutgers and Penn State in Chicago last weekend.

Evaluating Purdue’s path

The Boilermakers got a really tough draw, as both Memphis or FAU are strong Group of Five programs that can give them fits in the Round of 32. Should Purdue get through that, they’ll likely run into a red-hot Duke team or a defensive juggernaut in Tennessee. Even a team like 12th-seeded Oral Roberts could give Purdue trouble with their incredible offense. And we saw Purdue lose to 15th-seeded St. Peter’s last season.

Purdue’s path isn’t easy whatsoever, and its history doesn’t help matters.

The Verdict 

So which top seed will go down first? Let’s throw out Alabama and Houston. The Crimson Tide are arguably the country’s most complete team and have a manageable path to the Elite Eight. Houston has the easiest path to the Sweet 16 of all the top seeds, despite the potential absence of Sasser.

That leaves Kansas and Purdue as our top candidates. While I’m nervous about Kansas’s depth and a potential matchup with a talented Arkansas team, I trust Self and Wilson more than I do Painter and everyone on Purdue not named Edey.

Therefore, I am taking Purdue to be the first No. 1 seed eliminated. And I think it happens in the second round. Memphis is a highly athletic team that plays fierce defense and can fluster Purdue’s young guards. Florida Atlantic isn’t as aggressive defensively. However, they can spread opponents out, drill threes, and have a 7-foot-1 center in Vladislav Goldin, who can at least contend with Edey in the post.

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