2023 NFL Futures Bets: NFL Offensive Player of the Year (OPOY) Picks & Predictions

by Pat Fitzmaurice |
May 10, 2023

The NFL Offensive Player of the Year Award is an honor with an identity crisis.

What is it exactly? Is it a duplicate MVP award? An MVP runner-up award? An MVP award for non-quarterbacks on the offensive side of the ball?

In 12 of the last 25 years, the same player has been named MVP and Offensive Player of the Year. However, a single player hasn't walked away with both awards since 2018, when Patrick Mahomes did it in his first season as the Chiefs' starting quarterback.

With the two awards having been split in each of the last four years, is it safe to bank on that trend? Uh, maybe.

We've been head-faked on that trend before. In each year from 2001 to 2003, the MVP and OPOY awards were split between two players. (The Associated Press even saw fit to distinguish 2003 Offensive Player of the Year winner Jamal Lewis from its co-MVPs that year, Peyton Manning and Steve McNair.) But then a single player took home both awards for four consecutive seasons from 2004 to 2007.

For a while, running backs dominated Offensive Player of the Year, winning 10 of the 11 OPOY awards handed out from 1996 to 2006. Quarterbacks then claimed eight of the next 12 OPOY awards. But now non-QBs have been named Offensive Player of the Year in each of the last four seasons. Hmmm.

Here's an interesting trend. From the introduction of the Offensive Player of the Year Award in 1972 to 2018, only one wide receiver had ever won it — Jerry Rice, who did it twice (1987, 1993). But wide receivers have won three of the last four OPOY awards (Michael Thomas, Cooper Kupp, Justin Jefferson). On DraftKings, of the 11 players with the shortest odds to win OPOY, seven are wide receivers.

I've placed four futures bets on this unpredictable award. Here are the players I'm betting.

All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Early Best Bets: 2023 Offensive Player of the Year

Here are our early best bets for 2023 NFL Offensive Player of the Year.

Cooper Kupp +2000

Kupp won this award in 2021 and was on track for another terrific season in 2022 before sustaining a high-ankle sprain in Week 10 that ended his season. Kupp's 2021 season was one for the ages — 145 catches for 1,947 yards and 16 touchdowns — and he was on pace for 142-1,534-11 last year before the injury. The Rams have few other proven pass catchers aside from Kupp, who should once again average 10-plus targets per game. If Matthew Stafford can stay healthy and turn in one more decent season, Kupp should once again produce the sort of dazzling numbers that Offensive Player of the Year voters will appreciate.

Patrick Mahomes +2500

Yes, the OPOY award has gone to non-quarterbacks the last four years, but plenty of quarterbacks have won it in the past. Mahomes was the last player to sweep the MVP and OPOY awards, and if he goes nuclear this year, it will be hard to deny him either prize. Getting the NFL's best quarterback (and arguably the best pure passer of all time) at +2500 seems like extraordinary value.

Bijan Robinson +4500

The last player to be named both Offensive Player of the Year and Offensive Rookie of the Year was Earl Campbell in 1978. Wouldn't it be something if another running back from the University of Texas pulled off the same feat 45 years later? Bijan is widely regarded as the best RB prospect to enter the league since Saquon Barkley in 2018. It's a safe bet that run-happy Falcons head coach Arthur Smith will give Bijan a boatload of carries. If Bijan is as good as advertised, he could put up the sort of freakish numbers that it would take to be named OPOY.

CeeDee Lamb +5000

If the trend of wide receivers winning this award continues, Lamb could be next in line. He had an exciting 2022 breakout in his third NFL season — 107 catches for 1,359 yards and 9 touchdowns — and that's probably not where his ascension ends. The Cowboys are a high-profile team and figure to be NFC Championship contenders this season. At +5000, Lamb is a long shot worth taking.

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