Navigate

2023 NHL Playoffs Same Game Parlay Picks & Predictions: Monday (May 22)

by |

The Carolina Hurricanes fired out of the gates in Game 2, out-shooting the Florida Panthers 20-2 in the first period. It was one of the most dominant periods throughout the entire postseason. However, after the horn sounded, the Hurricanes only led 1-0. And from there, it just felt as if the Canes were doomed.

After a second consecutive overtime loss on home ice, the Canes travel to Florida hoping to avoid a dreaded 3-0 deficit. Will Carolina get the job done on the road? Here’s how I’m playing this game and my same game parlay picks.

Monday’s Best NHL Playoffs Same Game Parlay

All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Carolina Hurricanes (-105) at Florida Panthers (-120) | Total 5.5

    • Leg 1: Carolina -105
    • Leg 2: Under 5.5 goals
    • Leg 3: Sebastian Aho anytime goalscorer
    • Odds: +700

From a spot perspective, if there was ever a time to bet Carolina, it’s in Game 3. Now the question is whether the on-ice play syncs up with the spot. And I think they do.

Carolina was clearly the better team in Game 2 and definitely deserved a better result. The Hurricanes controlled 54% of possession, held slight edges in scoring chances and high-danger chances, and had an expected goals margin of 3.28-2.31 at 5-on-5 in Game 2. If you look at all game situations, including 5-on-5, NaturalStatTrick suggests the Canes should’ve won this game 4.68-2.59.

I’ve said throughout the postseason that what should happen clearly doesn’t always occur. Expectations don’t always align with reality in all facets of life, sports betting included. But when trying to make a call on what we think will happen, it’s important to note that Carolina has been the better team through the first two games, despite being down 2-0 in the series.

None of this is to dismiss the Panthers as a viable Stanley Cup contender. They are a really good team, a team that won the President’s Trophy a year ago. While I don’t buy into the “team of destiny” narrative, it certainly seems like there’s an intangible force guiding the Panthers through these playoffs.

What I’m most afraid of is betting against Sergei Bobrovsky, who has to be a front-runner for the Conn Smythe Trophy should the Panthers win it all. Bobrovsky has been magnificent, and that’s an understatement. He stopped 37 of 38 shots in Game 2. But he continues to put up incredible goals saved above expected numbers.

In Game 2, MoneyPuck.com states Bobrovsky stopped 3.5 more goals than he was expected to. For the postseason, Bobrovsky is now at +17.3 goals saved above expected. That’s even more astounding when you consider Bobrovsky only had a +6.2 goals saved above expected across the entire regular season. 

If you want just to keep riding the red-hot goaltender, I get it. But eventually, I suspect Carolina is going to break through. Anything is possible in a one-game sample size, but at this price, I’ll roll with the team that is more likely to control play and generate more chances while praying Bobrovsky takes just a slight step back in Game 3. I’ll also add the under to my SGP, as I don’t suspect a high-scoring affair is in the cards, given the familiarity between these teams and the goaltending.

Check out our other best bets for Monday:


Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts