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2023 the Memorial Tournament Bets: Odds, Picks & Predictions

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Golf is among the most challenging games to play in existence. The difficulty is often self-exacerbated, as “golf is predominantly played in the six inches between the ears.” Arnold Palmer said that as one of the best to ever play our maddening game. Golf is a true test of one’s wits and composure.

Some golf courses favor one style of play over another, but others demand and reward good golf shots throughout the bag. Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, Ohio, also known as “Jack’s Place,” is a sterling example of the latter. The Golden Bear Jack Nicklaus designed this gem back in his prime playing career in 1976 and has hosted the Memorial Tournament here ever since. Good shots are rewarded with scoring opportunities. Poor efforts are brutally penalized by thick rough, severely undulated greens and a plethora of hazards. It is a “true test” of one’s mettle during their good walk spoiled, only now with an elevated purse with which to reward this week’s hero.

2023 Memorial Tournament Odds, Picks & Predictions

Jack’s place is truly a bear. The par-72 track is sixth-longest on the PGA Tour at nearly 7,600 yards and plays the fifth-most difficult since the most recent redesign done by Nicklaus in 2020. Fairways are amply welcoming, but wayward drives are met with Draconian consequences. Most approaches are north of 175 yards into multi-tiered bentgrass greens that are among the Tour’s smallest in area. Massive, cavernous bunkers stand sentinel over these landing areas. Scrambling and bogey avoidance are paramount to surviving to the weekend.

One notable advantage goes to long hitters who, like Nicklaus, sport a high left-to-right shot shape preference. Tiger Woods won here five times and certainly met those criteria. Another pivotal piece is the ability to score on par-5 holes since the 3s and 4s are notoriously grueling at Muirfield Village. Approaches to the proper quadrant relative to pin placement are also important, with some of the most severe and glassy greens on Tour. Bad shots here are vanquished into precariously desperate scrambles where three-putts are quite common, especially if rolling from above the hole. Players like defending champion Billy Horschel can make up for their lack of prodigious distance with immaculate work around the green. Here are the lines I will be sporting this week. Let’s tee off.

(Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Jon Rahm (Outright +700 [2u]; Top-5 +175 [1u])

Jack’s Place is just perfectly designed for a player of Jon Rahm’s style and caliber. Rahm is stellar off the tee and on approach, with a towering left-to-right shot shape. The Spaniard finished tied for 10th here last year. You might remember his deluge of birdies and five-shot cushion after 54 holes in 2021, only to be forced to withdraw because of a positive COVID-19 test. He, of course, won the event by three shots in 2020. I am supremely confident that Rahm will dominate Muirfield Village once again, so my slip reflects that wholeheartedly.

Viktor Hovland (Outright +1800 [1u]; Top-10 +200 [1u])

What does Viktor Hovland have to do to get a win this year? The talented Norwegian has been in the hunt all season, but unfortunately without a victory since the Hero World Challenge in December. Hovland has turned in seven top-10 finishes without a single missed cut. If his much-improved short game can withstand the demands here, the rest of his game is certainly good enough to hoist the trophy.

Corey Conners (Outright +4000 [0.5u]; Top-10 +360 [0.5u])

The sweetest swing since Ernie Els belongs to a Canadian. Corey Conners is a masterful ball striker who hits it about as straight as he can point his index finger. His win at the Valero Texas Open back in March put the cherry on top of the best season of his career to date. Conners also has fared well leading into the week, with an eighth-place finish at the Wells Fargo and 12th at the PGA Championship. Quail Hollow and Oak Hill are both comparable courses in layout and difficulty to Muirfield Village. This bodes well for Conners to continue to rise above the shortcomings in his short game.

Wyndham Clark (Outright +5000 [0.5u]; Top-10 +450 [0.5u])

There has been a noticeable difference in Wyndham Clark this season. Always an amazing ball striker, it took him years to finally break through for his first PGA Tour win. His response to “What changed?” was a fortified mental approach. It has certainly paid dividends for Clark in 2023. His win at Quail Hollow validates the strong play he has displayed, including three other top-10 finishes since February. Like Conners, the short game is not a strong suit. Fortunately for Clark, he is still in the top half of the PGA Tour in every key metric for strokes gained.

Kurt Kitayama (Outright +11000 [0.25u]; Top-20 +360 [0.5u])

I took a week off on Kurt Kitayama for Colonial. His off-the-tee accuracy didn’t line up well with that venue. Right on cue, I’m back on him at a challenging course that favors his play style. The NorCal native is 20th in the Official World Golf Rankings and has enjoyed a stellar 2023 campaign. Kitayama is a long hitter whose strongest attribute is on approach. This is especially true from longer than 175 yards, where he is among the best in the world. Although not the best scrambler, Kitayama is a strong sand player and has really improved his putting of late. There is a reason he has earned more than $6 million this season.

Akshay Bhatia (Outright +30000 [0.25u]; Top-40 +190 [0.5u])

The future of golf is very exciting. Akshay Bhatia is among the new wave of young superstars with ridiculous game. Although he has yet to break through with a strong showing in an elevated event, Bhatia has flashed the requisite game plenty of times this season. If not for exactly one bad round in each of his last two starts, he would have been a lot closer to the hunt. Statistically, Bhatia is a marvel of well-rounded shot-making. He is great from tee to green but has faltered with scrambling and short game. When it finally does click for him, don’t be surprised when he enjoys a windfall of PGA Tour success. His talent has yet to catch up to his odds, so I’m betting on him until then.

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