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2023 Verizon 200 at the Brickyard: NASCAR at Indianapolis Road Course Odds, Picks & Predictions

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Shane van Gisbergen’s win at Chicago Street in his first NASCAR race refueled a war that’s been waging on and off for years: Road course ringers vs. elite stock car drivers.

Sure, Jeff Gordon won nine times between Sonoma and Watkins Glen, while Tony Stewart won eight times. But for every Chase Elliott and Tyler Reddick that win on ovals and road courses, there are the Boris Saids and Marcus Ambroses of the world that try to catch the Cup Series elite sleeping when we start making right-hand turns.

Now, a crop of first-time NASCAR drivers have traveled from their respective sports with the hopes of doing what SVG did at Chicago: win in the highest level of stock car racing.

It all comes to a head this weekend at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway Road Course. The only question left is: what side will you, the NASCAR bettor, be on?

Before I reveal my allegiances for the week, here are the data sets I took into account when handicapping this race:

  • 2022 Indianapolis Road Course (finishes & total speed rankings*)
  • Road Courses Since 2022 (finishes & total speed rankings*)
  • 2023 Road Courses (finishes & total speed rankings*)
    • Circuit of the Americas (COTA)
    • Sonoma
    • Chicago Street Race
  • Driver track history
  • Track trends
  • Recent performance & current standing

*via ifantasyrace.com

Armed with data to blame if it doesn’t go our way, here are my best bets for the Verizon 200 at the Brickyard:

2023 Verizon 200 at the Brickyard: NASCAR at Indianapolis Road Course Odds, Picks & Predictions

All bet recommendations are for 1u unless noted.

Top 5: Shane van Gisbergen (+120 via Caesars Sportsbook)

To find SVG at plus money for a T5 felt rare, considering he was going off at even or minus money in most places. What the Australian Supercar driver did in Chicago was no fluke. He qualified third and ranked No. 1 in total speed rankings. In addition, he never dropped below third in speed rankings across any of the race’s segments.

While this isn’t a street course, SVG now also has a race to understand the Next Gen car under his belt. With the expectation that he’ll commit to NASCAR in some sense full-time next year, the pressure is on the driver of the No. 91 car to have repeat success. I’m not sure if he can win Indy Road Course, but I certainly think he will run near the front most of the day now that he has built up some muscle memory in NASCAR.

Top 10: Kamui Kobayashi (+150 via Caesars Sportsbook)

Kamui Kobayashi is one of the ringers making his NASCAR debut this weekend. This is a driver that has done a bit of everything. He’s run endurance races and F1. Most recently, he’s climbed to the top of the mountain in IMSA SportsCars, where he was far and away the fastest driver when competing.

Rumors are circulating in NASCAR that Kobayashi’s simulated testing here at Indy Road Course has been insane. With him being in a Toyota car that placed T10 in the Daytona 500 with Travis Pastrana behind the wheel, I have full confidence the Japanese driver learns quickly this weekend.

Matchup: Chris Buescher (-110) vs. Brodie Kostecki (-120) via Barstool Sportsbook

Brodie Kostecki is yet another NASCAR newcomer this weekend. He also competes in the V8 Supercars Series with SVG and is actually leading the standings. However, he’ll be in a third Richard Childress Racing (RCR) No. 33 car on Sunday. Out of all the additional cars in the race this weekend, this is my least favorite because it’s a relative unknown.

Meanwhile, Chris Buescher is well-known for his road courses and oval racing now after reeling off two-straight Cup Series wins. In addition to running lights out lately, Buescher has been among the best at road courses in the Next Gen car. He’s eight for nine of finishing in the top 10 at road courses since 2022 and three for three this season. In addition, Buescher has the fourth-best total speed ranking at road courses since 2022 and in 2023, respectively. He had top-eight speed here last season, and I expect a similar performance from the No. 17 car that remains live to win once again.

Other Bets on My Card:

Seth Woolcock is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more sports betting and fantasy sports analysis from Seth, check out In-Between Media and follow him @Between_SethFF.