2023 WGC-Dell Match Play Odds, Picks & Predictions
Last week at the Valspar was a rare swing-and-miss week. Fortunately, we weren’t overly aggressive with our units and will trudge forward unfazed. The Florida Swing would have been rough, had it not been for hitting on 250-1 Kurt Kitayama at Bay Hill. That massive win ensured a profitable 2023 season, with half of the season still to play.
March Madness has gripped the nation. Brackets were meant to be busted, but our NCAA basketball brackets were never safe. This week’s WGC-Dell Matchplay is the last of the iconic event, as the PGA Tour makes room for more riveting events and exciting sponsorships going forward. Golf fans have been privileged to watch some of their own Cinderella stories here, running parallel to the raucous spectacle of amateur hoops that sweeps America every year.
The best golfers in the world will begin group play on Wednesday. This is similar to the World Cup, where the four golfers in each of the 16 groups will compete in a round-robin to determine the one who continues into the knockout stage over the weekend. The top 16 eligible golfers were placed at the top of their own group, with the remaining field assigned on a random draw. As indicated by the name, this is a match-play event only.
2023 WGC-Dell Matchplay Odds, Picks & Predictions
(Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
One would think that a match-play format would make it very difficult to predict. That is only partially correct. Austin Country Club is a par-71 track that measures only 7,100 yards. The course favors players who can make a ton of birdies and string good holes together.
Key stats in my weighted model include Birdie or Better Percentage and Proximity on Approach. There will also be a strong bias toward good putting and players with successful experience in high-level match-play competitions (Ryder Cup, Presidents Cup, WGC-Dell).
Match play in itself favors a more experienced golfer who can not only card a good score but defeat the opponent in front of him. The smart wagers for this event will certainly consider the group draws and pathway to the finals. Betting is available on the outright winner, top-2 (finalist), and top-4 (semifinalist). Here are the guys I am keying on with my bankroll this week.
Jon Rahm (Outright +1100 [1u]; Top-2 +600 [1u]; Top-4 +300 [1u])
The initial reaction to this line is how soft it is. A player of Jon Rahm’s caliber stands a very high chance of escaping group play, then staring down anyone in his path to win the tournament. When you add in a seemingly easier pathway to that end, this is a spot I feel the need to punch the throttle aggressively. Rahm is in Group 2 with Billy Horschel, Keith Mitchell, and Rickie Fowler. On paper, that seems like a group of death. I see it as a way to leave three legitimate contenders in his wake on the way to the title.
Patrick Cantlay Outright +1800 [0.5u]; Top-2 +900 [0.5u]; Top-4 +500 [1u])
On the lower left corner of the bracket, every top seed will have an arduous challenge to advance from the group stage except Patrick Cantlay. I predict a lot of upsets and turmoil in those other groups, leaving one of the most successful American Ryder Cup players in the modern era to clean up and reach the semifinals. Should he make it that far, the odds are paying out too much to ignore.
Tyrrell Hatton (Outright +2500 [0.5u]; Top-4 +650 [1u])
Stop me if you’ve heard this one. A fiery Englishman who owns a masterful short game and makes a ton of birdies is favored in match play. That’s the story here with Tyrrell Hatton, who enters the week on a heater. His on-course antics can be a real distraction at this type of event, even if he’s playing well. Hatton drew a very favorable group with Russell Henley, Lucas Herbert, and Ben Griffin. The hope is that the murderer’s row of matchplay stalwarts Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele meet their demise and free up the bottom right quadrant of the bracket for Hatton.
Min Woo Lee (Outright +7000 [0.25u]; Top-4 +1400 [0.5u])
The two shots I am taking on non-top seeds are on red-hot golfers who stand up well against the rest of their groups. Australian Min Woo Lee is on the precipice of earning his PGA Tour membership and is grouped with Sahith Theegala and JJ Spaun. The top seed in Group 11 is Matt Fitzpatrick, who has scuffled of late and is winless in Ryder Cup play. Like Hatton, he will need to traverse a few tough outs if he advances.
Kurt Kitayama (Outright +9000 [0.25u]; Top-4 +1600 [0.5u])
Our golden boy from Chico, California, is exactly the type of player who can emerge at the WGC-Dell Match Play and take down the big boys along the way. Sound familiar? It’s exactly what he did a few weeks ago at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Kurt Kitayama is a bomber who can make a ton of birdies. He clearly has the intestinal fortitude to score under pressure, which is a huge advantage in match play. His main adversary in Group 10 is Tony Finau. Adrian Meronk and Christiaan Bezuidenhout are fine too, but not overly threatening. The upper right quadrant is also home to Jon Rahm. It stands to reason that Kitayama would need a couple of breaks in the form of group upsets to advance, but he has the chops to take advantage.
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