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2023 WM Phoenix Open Odds, Picks & Predictions

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“Close only counts in Horseshoes and Hand Grenades.” Close certainly doesn’t count against the books in Las Vegas. I was ever so close to taking down my second outright winner in a row. Brendon Todd was 75-1 and far and away the top golfer in my weighted statistical model for the Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Unfortunately, Justin Rose pulled it together for his first Tour victory since 2019 to spoil our fun and ruin what would have been an immense payday.

All eight of the golfers I wagered on made the 54-hole cut. Four of them finished in the top 20, and that didn’t even include 36-hole leader Kurt Kitayama, whose poor showing in the final round doused any hopes of his 80-1 odds paying off. Alas, I only risked seven measly units for that crapshoot event. There are bigger fish to fry this season on the PGA Tour, especially this week in Arizona.

The WM Phoenix Open is an iconic venue famous for its fan-friendly atmosphere and massive, raucous crowds. The Super Bowl will share the Phoenix area on Sunday, adding to the madness at TPC Scottsdale. The course itself is a desert track at elevation that sports a par-71 that overwhelmingly favors skilled ball strikers. Bombers do well here, but only if they can keep their long drives in play and not in the cacti or litany of fairway bunkers.

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2023 WM Phoenix Open Odds, Picks & Predictions

(Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

My statistical model has been simplified quite a bit this week. A lot of the weight and emphasis is on Strokes gained on approach, without narrowing for proximity from specific distances. Good drives percentage has found its way back into the fray, along with scrambling and bogey avoidance. The icing on the cake is a little more focus on birdie-or-better percentage to encapsulate the need to score this week, with eight of the world’s top 10 golfers in contention. Like every week, I handicap each golfer with my own lines and furiously attack the discrepancies with the books. Here are the golfers I will be wagering on this week.

Rory McIlroy (Outright +850 [1u]; Top-5 +200 [1u])

The entire world is favoring Jon Rahm again. It makes sense on paper. Rahm attended Arizona State and has performed well here over the years. His odds are significantly shorter than the World’s Number One golfer, Rory McIlroy. An interesting tidbit is that Rahm has never won the Phoenix Open, and the last time we saw Rors, he was going full scorched earth on a desert course, leaving the entirely unlikeable Patrick Reed singed in his wake. Don’t overthink it.

Collin Morikawa (Outright +1800 [1u]; Top-10 +190 [1u])

TPC Scottsdale is a ball striker’s course. The best iron players win here, regardless of their driving distance. There might not be a better iron player on this planet than Collin Morikawa, who has certainly contributed to our bankroll this season. We would have liked him to finish the job and win one of these weeks. A date in the desert with some flat-out easy greens might cure what ails him.

Sungjae Im (Outright +2200 [0.5u])

Speaking of spectacular iron players, Sungjae Im is Him. Im missed last year’s Phoenix Open but finished T-17 two years ago and is coming off a fourth-place finish in his last appearance at the Farmers. The Korean superstar is one of a handful of underrated golfers in this field who can make birdies in bunches and run away with the victory.

Tom Kim (Outright +2800 [0.5u]; Top-5 +600 [0.75u])

Last week, there was a clear favorite in my model, but I only placed an outright bet on runner-up Brendon Todd. Tom Kim is easily the statistical favorite in my player pool in Phoenix this week, so I am putting a bit more skin in the game with an additional top-5 wager on him. Like Sungjae, Kim is a masterful iron player who is among the best Tour players on approach. The odds are nice and long this week, as well.

Si-Woo Kim (Top-10 +700 [0.5u])

Si-Woo was a DFS smash hit earlier this season in Hawai’i, but didn’t make the wager column that week. I won’t make that same mistake this week, especially with such impressive odds. I am not saying Kim will win this event, but throwing some bones on a strong showing seems like the right thing to do. From tee to green, Si-Woo is incredibly strong and finished T-26 at last year’s WM Phoenix Open. He was also in the top 10 of the field in my stat model this week.

Joel Dahmen (Outright +15000 [0.25u]; Top-10 +1100 [0.5u]; Top-20 +400 [0.75u])

Surprise, surprise. Old Bucket Hat showed up as the sixth-ranked golfer in my model this week. He is a great iron player, so it’s no wonder. Dahmen is a low-risk player with a world of potential winnings if he gets hot. The mantra this season has been “trust your numbers.” Let’s keep the good times rolling.

Scott Stallings (Outright +20000 [0.25u]; Top-20 +500 [0.5u])

Some lines are just befuddling. I had Scott Stallings pegged as a guy who would be in the 80 to 100-1 territory. When I saw his line at 200-1, I rubbed the sleep from my eyes and refreshed the page. Still there. The stats model wasn’t overly kind to Stallings either, but he did finish T-21 here last season and is coming off a 15th-place finish at Pebble Beach last week. A cut-making machine, Stallings might just be one of the guys I root for because of my gut feeling that he is getting disrespected week after week.

Total Units Played: 8.5
Potential Units: 152.9

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