2023 Women’s NCAA Tournament Picks & Predictions (Iowa vs. LSU)
I barely know anything about men’s college basketball. I know even less about women’s college basketball.
But I do know that 10 years ago Elena Delle Donne first made me interested in the women’s side of the NCAA tournament bracket with her Dirk Nowitzki-esque skill set, and this year Caitlin Clark has rekindled my burning desire to watch college basketball with her Luka Doncic-like ability to stuff the stat sheet as a scorer, passer and rebounder.
By the way, I’m a Mavericks fan, so that might influence my player comps.
Even though I don’t follow college basketball, I’ve been a profitable March Madness player prop bettor for the past few years thanks to a “model” (set of spreadsheets) I’ve built.
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
- 2023: 301-235, +50.7 units (through Final Four)
Before this year, I’ve never bet March Madness games against the spread (ATS) because I don’t like to bet sports I don’t know, but this year I teamed up with some folks here behind the scenes to create official team forecasts for every NCAA tournament game, and I’m 10-5 ATS (+4.5 units) betting on games.
So, somehow, I’m pretty good at betting on college basketball.
But I’ve never bet on women’s college basketball. Until Friday night.
Call me a moron, but I looked at Iowa as an underdog of +11 points against South Carolina and thought, “The player of the year probably shouldn’t be a double-digit dog.”
So now I’m a highly successful bettor of the women’s game, which means that I feel compelled to create player projections for the championship between Iowa and LSU.
2023 Women’s NCAA Tournament Player Prop Bet Picks & Predictions
Iowa Player Prop Bet Picks
| Prop | Odds | Units | To Win | Book |
| Monika Czinano Under 16.5 Points | -115 | 1.15 | 1 | MGM |
| Caitlin Clark Under 9.5 Assists | -115 | 1.15 | 1 | DK |
| Caitlin Clark Under 5.5 3Ps | -115 | 1.15 | 1 | DK |
| Caitlin Clark Over 6.5 Rebounds | -104 | 1.04 | 1 | FD |
| McKenna Warnock Over 5.5 Rebounds | 102 | 1 | 1.02 | FD |
| Caitlin Clark Over 46.5 PRAs | -118 | 1.18 | 1 | FD |
LSU Player Prop Bet Picks
| Prop | Odds | Units | To Win | Book |
| Angel Reese Over 21.5 Points | -125 | 1.25 | 1 | DK |
| Angel Reese Over 14.5 Rebounds | -120 | 1.2 | 1 | CZR |
| LaDazhia Williams Over 9.5 Points | -125 | 1.25 | 1 | FD |
| LaDazhia Williams Over 5.5 Rebounds | -125 | 1.25 | 1 | FD |
| Alexis Morris Over 1.5 3Ps | -118 | 1.18 | 1 | FD |
| Alexis Morris Over 15.5 Points | -120 | 1.2 | 1 | MGM |
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