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2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational: PGA Best Weekend Picks

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The 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational is shaping up to be the event of the year entering Saturday’s third round. With Bay Hill serving as the fourth Signature Event course in 2024, we’ve seen even the best golfers on the PGA Tour struggle to navigate the narrow doglegged fairways, water hazards, and bunkers placed strategically throughout the course. Now, we’ve got a six-way tie for first place on the leaderboard, as Scottie Scheffler went -5-under-par on Friday to surge into a tie for the lead at -7-under-par.

Will one of these six first-place golfers manage to go on a run to wind up winning the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational this weekend? Or will we see another golfer a few strokes back get red-hot to wind up as the outright winner with longer odds in the outright betting market? Whatever is in store, it’s going to be a lot of fun to watch! Follow me on X @Matt_MacKay_ to get more free plays and PGA Tour best bets throughout the week.

2024 Genesis Invitational: Best Weekend Picks

These plays are .5u and .75u, or 0.5% and 0.75% of your betting bankroll. Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Wyndham Clark +1000 (0.75u)

Wyndham Clark is a proven birdie machine, ranking 38th in birdie average and 18th in birdie or better conversion percentage. Clark is also 18th in scoring average and first on the PGA Tour in total driving distance. Finding over 72 percent of greens in regulation, while also ranking inside the top 60 for approaching the green and off-the-tee, there are minimal flaws in Clark’s game.

He’s no stranger to performing well in clutch moments, earning three outright wins on the PGA Tour in the past calendar year, including Pebble Beach earlier this season. At +1000 odds, we should invest another 0.75 unit stake on Clark to remain hot at Bay Hill after firing a -6-under-par scorecard in Round 2.

Russell Henley +1100 (0.75u)

It’s been a couple of years since Russell Henley has won an event on the PGA Tour but he’s looking sharp at Bay Hill through two rounds. Tied for first at -7-under-par, the Georgia native is 36th for strokes gained around the green and 39th in par 4 scoring average. Henley also ranks 21st in 3-putt avoidance and 13th in sand save percentage, indicating he’s clutch with the flat stick and scrambling.

Both of these skills will be necessary to maintain a share of the lead into Moving Day. 11/1 odds is lucrative for Henley who occupies first-place after going three-under-par or better in each of the first two rounds, so let’s stake 0.75 units on him to win outright.

Will Zalatoris +1200 (0.50u)

I’ve been on Will Zalatoris in the outright market for several weeks now and he’s proving me right with his latest performances at Bay Hill. The 27-year-old Californian hasn’t missed a beat coming off of a back procedure he underwent last season. Zalatoris is one stroke off the lead at -6-under-par after recording a bogey-free outing in Round 2.

Ranked 15th strokes gained on approach and 21st tee-to-green, Zalatoris’ driver and irons are his primary strengths. He’s ranked fifth in fairway proximity, avoiding errant lies frequently to set himself up for quality approach shots on the green. Zalatoris is also 34th in scrambling and ranks inside the top 50 for par 3 and par 5 birdie leaders. Ranking 26th in bogey avoidance, Zalatoris’ strong start, going -3-under-par twice, should keep him in contention to secure his second win on the PGA Tour since the 2022 FedEx St. Jude Championship playoff win.  Let’s stake half a unit on Zalatoris at +1200 in the outright betting market.

Viktor Hovland +1800 (0.50u)

It hasn’t been Viktor’s year thus far, recording his best outing with a T19 finish at Genesis in mid-February. The reigning FedExCup winner hasn’t made it easy on himself through two rounds at Bay Hill, filling his scorecard with bogeys early before bouncing back with a slew of birdies to climb into T10 on the leaderboard at -4-under-par.

Hovland’s 20th strokes gained off-the-tee, 46th in driving distance, and 60th strokes gained putting. Ranked 10th in total driving efficiency, eighth going for the green, and 28th total putting, Hovland possesses the tools necessary to go on a run late in this event. Hovland also dominates par 3 and par 5 holes, ranking fifth for birdie or better leaders on both. Since Bay Hill has eight total par 3 and par 5 holes, staking half a unit on Hovland to win outright at +1800 is a strong investment to make ahead of Saturday’s tee time.

Emiliano Grillo +3500 (0.50u)

Emiliano Grillo is flying under the radar at +3500 in the outright betting market. The Argentinian is T8 at -5-under-par, but he could be in contention if not for recording two bogeys on the final six holes in Round 2. Grillo won the 2023 Charles Schwab Challenge after a seven-year win drought, boosting his confidence on the links.

Now, Grillo is available at 35/1, which is an enticing value to wager. Ranked 19th strokes gained putting, 31st for driving accuracy percentage, and 40th in birdie or better conversion rate, Grillo’s flat stick and off-the-tee skills should keep him atop the leaderboard during the final two rounds at Bay Hill. Let’s wrap up the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational by staking one more half unit on Grillo at +3500 odds.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:

Matthew MacKay is a featured writer for FantasyPros and BettingPros. For more from Matthew, check out his archive and follow him @Matt_MacKay_.

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