2024 Bass Pro Shops Night Race: NASCAR at Bristol Odds, Picks & Predictions
On a weekend full of NASCAR racing under the lights at “The Last Great Colosseum” - Bristol Motor Speedway - most longtime fans will care more about the results of Friday night’s Xfinity Series race rather than Saturday night’s Cup Series fixture.
That’s for one reason and one reason only: Ralph “Dale” Earndhardt Jr.
Even non-racing fans recognize that name, and rightfully so. A younger version of Jr. carried the sport following the tragic death of his father, Dale Earnhardt Sr., who we lost on the final lap of the 2001 Daytona 500. Thanks to the then Budewiser-backed driver - following the legacy of “dad,” as Jr. refers to him - NASCAR was everywhere.
I unapologetically grew up a Jeff Gordon fan in an Earnhardt household during that time. Hell, I can remember the day Sr. died and the toll it took on my stepdad, who grew up a No. 3 fan, better than I can 9/11. And if I could go back today, I’d get on the Jr. Nation bandwagon and be there by his side, rooting for the No. 8 car.
That’s because 20-some-odd years later, I’ve recognized Jr. for what he truly is: the most important figure in stock car racing history.
Not only did he transcend what it meant to be a NASCAR driver, but he’s continued to help grow the sport since retiring from full-time racing in 2017. He’s given grass-roots, short-track drivers like Josh Berry a shot in his JR Motorsports (JRM) Xfinity Series cars, helping to propel him to the sport’s highest level. Simultaneously, he runs the most influential motorsports media company, Dirty Mo Media.
When Jr. takes the track tonight for his one annual Xfinity Series race - rumored to be his last NASCAR race ever - I hope he feels the respect he’s earned. Nobody would have blamed him for walking away after Feb. 18, 2001. Instead, he’s solely stoked the sport’s proverbial flame for over two decades.
And for that, I - a kid from Pennsylvania who gets to discuss NASCAR betting for a living - am forever grateful.
With no real way to transition from the magnitude of tonight’s race, we’ll do what we do best: Bet on it.
Here are my best bets for the 2024 Food City 300 and Bass Pro Shops Night Race.
2024 Bass Pro Shops Night Race: NASCAR at Bristol Odds, Picks & Predictions
Top 5: Kyle Larson (+105 via BetRivers) | 1.5u
Just 26 points above the cutline to advance to the Round of 12, Kyle Larson can not afford a DNF this weekend. Luckily for the California native, Bristol has become one of his best tracks since joining Hendrick Motorsports (HMS), finishing T5 in all four races here.
In the spring Bristol race, where the high tire wear surprised most teams, Larson was fifth in the total speed rankings, courtesy of ifantasyrace.com, and the fastest late in a run.
Larson also finished runner-up this season at our closest comp track, Dover, and won Kansas, another high-tire-wear track. This sets him up for a great run, and while most shops have Larson at minus odds for a T5 ticket, our friends from Pittsburgh are offering it at a fair price of +105. Don’t overthink it.
Top 10: Kyle Busch (+105 via Caesars) | 1.5u
Four of the last six Cup Series races this season have been won by new winners in 2024. Finishing P7 or better in his last four oval races - including two runner-ups - Kyle Busch is in position to be the next.
Candidly, the recent runs at Bristol for “Rowdy” are nothing noteworthy and are likely why we’re getting plus-money odds for a T10 ticket. Still, Busch won the pole, had an average running position of 5.0 and finished P4 at the comp track of Dover earlier this season. Plus, at our most recent high-tire wear track of Darlington, Busch nearly drove it to victory lane, ultimately finishing second to Chase Briscoe.
Another component in the 39-year-old’s favor is that his Richard Childress Racing (RCR) teammate, Austin Dillon, was part of the summer tire test at Bristol, adding to the team’s notebook. With the most career Bristol wins (eight) and runner-up finishes (five) among active drivers, this may be Busch’s last chance to continue his 19-year streak of winning at least one Cup Series race each season.
It’s now or never. Giddy up!
Winning Car Number: Under 11.5 (+105 via Caesars) | 1.5u
If you’re looking for a bet that’s a bit more of a buckshot that gives you multiple outs, look no further than the Winning Car Number: Under 11.5. If any of the following drivers find victory lane, it cashes:
- No. 1 Ross Chastain: An average finish of 8.0 in the last five races
- No. 2 Austin Cindric: A Playoff driver with two straight T10s
- No. 3 Austin Dillon: Won the most recent short track, Richmond
- No. 4 Josh Berry: Started P2, led 25 laps in the spring
- No. 5 Kyle Larson: See above
- No. 6 Brad Keselowski: P8 in the spring, P8 last year, two career Bistol wins
- No. 8 Kyle Busch: See above
- No. 9 Chase Elliott: Best career average finish among actives at Bristol (11.6)
- No. 10 Noah Gragson: Finished P6 at Dover, two Xfinity Series wins here
- No. 11 Denny Hamlin: Four career Bristol wins, back-to-back winner
I’ll put my faith in this crop of Bristol veterans and would bet this all the way down to -125.
Other Cup Series Bets on My Card:
Kyle Larson Outright (+600 via DraftKings) | .8u
Kyle Busch Outright (+2000 via BetRivers) | .6u
Kyle Busch T5 (+300 via Caesars) | .5u
Food City 300 (Xfinity) Bets:
Justin Allgaier Outright (+300 via ESPN BET) | 1.5u
Dale Earnhardt Jr. Outright (+1000 via Caesars) | .6u
Justin Allgaier T3 (-125 via Caesars) | 3u
Dale Earnhardt Jr. T5 (+12o via Caesars) | 1.5u
Cole Custer (-110 @ ESPN BET) vs. Chandler Smith | 2u
Seth Woolcock is a featured writer and editor at BettingPros. For more sports betting and fantasy sports analysis from Seth, check out In-Between Media & follow him on X/Twitter @Between_SethFF.