2024 British Open Odds & Picks: Head-to-Head Matchups (Round 4)
We’ve seen Royal Troon test golfers with its layout and difficult weather conditions through the first three rounds. Sunday’s final round is shaping up to be similar to Thursday and Friday, with stronger winds but minimal rain.
Billy Horschel emerged from the field in Round 3 to grab the solo lead at 4-under-par, playing extremely well off-the-tee, on approach, and around the greens. His putter is normally the best club in the bag, but Horschel’s ironplay has been stellar this week. The eight-time PGA Tour winner will have to hold off six golfers sitting one stroke back at 3-under-par, including PGA Championship winner, Xander Schauffele, who is the current betting favorite at most sportsbooks.
Scottie Scheffler, World No. 1 and six-time PGA Tour winner in 2024, is only two strokes back and could easily make a run at the title on Sunday. Other notable names in contention include Justin Rose, Sam Burns, and Russell Henley. Shane Lowry’s 6-over-par implosion on Saturday pushed him down the leaderboard to 1-under-par, but the Irishman should respond well with everything on the line during Round 4.
I’ve got two head-to-head Round 4 matchups to target during Sunday’s final round at the 152nd British Open. Follow me on X @Matt_MacKay_ for more free plays and PGA Tour best bets throughout each week.
2024 British Open Odds & Picks
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Shane Lowry vs. Adam Scott 2 Ball
Oddsmakers are undervaluing Shane Lowry after he fell apart on the back-nine during Saturday. Yes, it was bad, but Adam Scott didn’t have to play in the majority of the rain in Round 3. Scott’s 5-under-par outing was a great effort, no doubt, but Lowry at plus odds is a great price to secure.
Despite his shortcomings, Lowry still ranks ninth in total strokes gained metrics this week, including fifth on approach, while 30th SG: putting and 40th: SG off-the-tee. Meanwhile, Scott, whose putter is notoriously a liability, also ranks 77th SG: off-the-tee this week and 46th SG: putting. In drier, windier conditions, Lowry should play better than Scott. In Round 2, when wind gusts were at their peak, the Aussie turned in a 77 scorecard.
Let’s stake a unit on Lowry to bounce-back and attempt to contend for the outright win on Sunday, using his precise irons and quality putting ability to keep pace ahead of Scott, finishing with a lower score in Round 4 and cashing this 2 ball prop at +105 odds.
Pick: Shane Lowry (+105)
Russell Henley vs. Sam Burns 2 Ball
Oddsmakers have given us a true pick’em 2 ball matchup prop between Russell Henley and Sam Burns. Burns lit the field up with his putting on Saturday, going 6-under-par, but he was another beneficiary of calm winds and minimal rain for the majority of his round.
Henley had tougher conditions and still went 5-under-par. Henley also ranks 15th SG: off-the-tee, seventh SG: approach, and 30th SG: around the green this week. Compare this to Burns, who is pedestrian in most of these metrics, excluding putting. In Round 1, Burns finished at 76, 5-over-par, struggling to combat the winds that will be swirling again on Sunday.
Burns is ranked 44th SG: around-the-green and 59th SG: off-the-tee, so his putter is the only avenue to more low scores on Sunday. Henley played well in windy conditions on Thursday, ascending to 2-under-par, and he showcased his ball-striking talent continuously on Saturday. We’re backing Henley to beat Burns on Sunday with good value at -110 odds.
Pick: Russell Henley (-110)
Matthew MacKay is a featured writer for BettingPros and FantasyPros. For more from Matthew, check out his archive and follow him @Matt_MacKay_.