2024 British Open: Odds, Picks & Predictions

by Bo McBrayer |
Jul 17, 2024

There is something uniquely special about Scotland in mid-July. At times the air is balmy, bringing a flush to a lad’s cheeks. A summer squall can bring a deluge, along with gusts that can chill to the bone. Golf was created for the Scots, by the Scots. It was, like countless other joys in life, stolen by the English aristocracy and has battled a down-nose reputation ever since. Royal Troon sits along the west coast of the country, exposed to the North Atlantic like a bazaar. The trade winds waft a salty chill onto the links founded here in 1878.

A cathedral with no roof can’t help but project its prayers all the way to the heavens, but that’s just the beginning at Royal Troon. Purgatory and the depths of golf hell loom for those who are unable to navigate the grassy dunes and treacherous pot bunkers, rumored to offer wayward golfers a hint of brimstone on the nose. The Champion Golfer of the Year will emerge winged and glowing on Sunday evening, Claret Jug glistening in hand. If gambling is a sin, only sharp wagering at the year’s final major can save my soul now.

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2024 Open Championship: Odds, Picks & Predictions

(Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Royal Troon is as pure a links track as can be found. The par-71 is of average length and is divided into three equal stanzas. The outward six are Heaven, where there are gettable birdie opportunities to uplift the golfer’s spirits. The middle six holes are Purgatory. Risk and reward. Yin and yang. The fork in the road of one’s round where early success can be either parlayed or condemned to damnation. The final six are Hell. Six grueling holes into a prevailing headwind are as stern as Open Championship golf can be. Accuracy from tee to green is essential, especially since Troon cannot be overpowered. The greens are miniscule. They are the smallest on the Open rota and are guarded like sentinels by ominous bunkers and snarling, spindly rough and gorse bushes.

Without a prolific short game and the ability to scramble out of trouble, prayers to the golf almighty will be mocked and ridiculed. The cantankerous Scottish weather can easily complicate matters further. My bets will exclusively feature well-rounded golfers with outstanding short games and durability in windy conditions. With a peaty dram and a lion’s defiance on my coat of arms, let’s tee off.

Rory McIlroy

The Northern Irishman has played admirably this season. Rory McIlroy didn’t win the U.S. Open, nor the Scottish Open. He was damn close in each, finishing in the top five rather comfortably. He is the best player in the world off the tee, but the most impressive facet of Rory’s bag has been his ability to get up and down from around the green. I have him as the best fit to win the Open and would bet him at under +500 odds. He clears Scottie Scheffler with ease in links golf, especially if the winds freshen past a mere breeze.

Picks: Outright +850 [2u]; Top-5 +200 [1u]

Cameron Smith

Imagine the astounding shock when I ran my weighted statistical model with an emphasis on the short game and Cameron Smith vaulted to the top. The 2022 Champion Golfer of the Year at St. Andrews is back for another tug of scotch at Royal Troon, a course seemingly designed perfectly for Smith himself. Even more appealing is the absurdity of his betting odds. The mulleted Aussie is getting no respect at all this week in the books and that’s perfectly fine by me. The sharpest chipper and putter on the planet deserves my most aggressive wager in a tournament designed to laud Smith’s mastery.

Picks: Outright +4500 [1u]; Top-5 +900 [1u]; Top-10 +400 [1u]

Sungjae Im

Sungjae Im is a masterful ball striker. This is especially true when stronger winds come into play. Im is fifth-best in this illustrious field in opportunities gained and birdie-or-better rate in difficult scoring conditions and at least moderate wind. In fact, he is no worse than top 30 in any one metric included in my model. The young Korean is plenty good enough to win a major championship, and I would suspect it would be most likely to occur at the Open Championship.

Picks: Outright +6500 [0.5u]; Top-10 +550 [0.5u]

Sam Burns

It might come as a surprise, but one of the comparative courses to Royal Troon is Pinehurst No. 2. The U.S. Open was a stellar showing for Sam Burns, who finished in ninth place. His ability to scramble and avoid bogeys with an outstanding short game was not lost on anyone. His odds at the Open Championship this week are laughably long. He is in the middle of the pack on approach but is more than adequate throughout the rest of the golf bag. Burns is the quintessential grinder whom I expect to pay off in the likely event that inclement weather arrives during play.

Picks: Outright +11000 [0.5u]; Top-20 +360 [0.5u]

Deep Shots: Christiaan Bezuidenhout & Victor Perez

There are so many great values to bet on this week. I attempted to shed light on more of them here. Christiaan Bezuidenhout is one of the world’s best scramblers in difficult scoring conditions. Victor Perez is on a really nice stretch of good form and will have a great chance to climb the leaderboard if the weather is more benign. Although it’s tempting to throw a few sovereigns on their outright numbers, I am more focused on the immense value in placement bets for both. I’m even feeling frisky enough to parlay each of them to finish top 20 (+2900), in the Bez-Perez stack. I wish you all the best of luck!

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