2024 F1 Belgian Grand Prix Odds, Picks, & Predictions

by Sam Wagman |
Jul 25, 2024

The best races of Formula One are typically held in the summer: Monaco, Silverstone. The Belgian Grand Prix is the third of those great summer races, held this Sunday, and it feels like it has been some time since we were at this point of the season and there were actual battles in the Drivers Championship and the Constructors Championship.

Max Verstappen and Red Bull currently hold the top spots, respectively, but Lando Norris and McLaren are making a strong charge, and with Verstappen having not won any of the last three races, is it time for a new leader? McLaren can shrink the gap considerably with strong performances at the famous Circuit of Spa-Francorchamps this week, so we’ll be on the lookout there.

We’ll get into our race odds as well as picks and predictions for this week, so let’s dive in.

If you need a refresher on betting Formula One, make sure you check out our F1 Betting Guide!

2024 Belgian Grand Prix Odds

(odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Lando Norris: +100
Oscar Piastri: +285
Max Verstappen: +400
Lewis Hamilton: +1200
George Russell: +1200
Charles Leclerc: +3500
Carlos Sainz: +4500
Sergio Perez: +5000

2024 Belgian GP Predictions

Max Verstappen: +400 to Win

This is the first time in, well, a long time, that Verstappen has not been the overwhelming favorite at a Grand Prix, much less a favorite at all. Norris has overtaken him in the odds, but should he have?

There was an announcement this week that Verstappen will likely take a ten-place grid penalty to make an engine change after losing a power unit during the Canadian Grand Prix. His odds are lower than we have seen them in some time due to this.

To me, this is panic and the sportsbooks trying to push bettors towards Lando due to down performances from Verstappen in recent Grand Prix’s. Yes, he has not won a race in three consecutive weeks for the first time since 2021, but he is still the best driver on this grid and is the three-time defending champion at the Belgian Grand Prix. Verstappen also won this race in 2023 after starting from 14th place

Norris, on the other hand, hasn’t had that same success here recently. Sure the McLaren car is worlds better than previous seasons, but still, Norris has finished 7th, 12th, and 14th in his last three races here.

I wouldn’t be rushing to anoint him a champion at Spa, and even with Max’s car issues and the grid penalty, there is much more value on him to win at +400 than there should be.

Bet: Verstappen to Win (+400)

2024 Belgian Grand Prix Bets

Lewis Hamilton: +135 Podium Finish

It’s easy to forget how Hamilton started this year, as he has turned the corner completely over his last four races. The arguable GOAT has a win, two thirds, and a fourth in his last four races and the upgrades that Mercedes put in their car have Hamilton racing like his old self.

That’s not to say that he’ll win, but he finished fourth here last year and third in 2021, so he absolutely still has the chops to compete at this track. Prior to 2021, he also won the Belgian Grand Prix in 2020.

Lewis’s performance this week should only be bolstered by the fact that team principal Toto Wolff spoke this week and said that Mercedes will roll out another developmental update to the Mercedes car this week. I think there’s plenty of smoke that Hamilton could take home another premium finish this weekend and potentially jump into the top five in the Drivers Championship standings.

Bet: Hamilton Podium Finish (+135)

Winning Margin: Between 6 & 12 Seconds +400, Under 6 Seconds -120, Above 12 Seconds +175

Verstappen has won the last couple Belgian Grand Prix’s by 22 and 17 seconds, but I’m not sure I can see his car being that dominant here right now to get that overwhelming win time. On the other side of things, I do think this is a track where a car out in the lead can dominate, pulling away on the long straights to increase their winning margin.

I do think we see a safe win by the eventual winner of this race, but it’s not a dominant performance, so I am taking the swing on the long odds and say the winning margin will be around 10 seconds.

Bet: Winning Margin Between 6& 12 Seconds (+400)

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