2024 FedEx St. Jude Championship: Odds, Picks & Predictions
Boy, am I glad I didn’t bet aggressively last week. The Wyndham Championship offered no winners to our bankroll, a rarity with the roll we’ve been on from this column.
The FedEx Cup Playoffs begin in earnest this week with the St. Jude Championship in Memphis, Tennessee. For the first time in the playoff era, only the top-70 in the standings will compete in this no-cut event. Only 50 will advance to next week’s BMW Championship, where the field will be whittled down to the usual 30 for the Tour Championship in Atlanta. There are huge money implications involved across the next three weeks, so why wouldn’t we get some skin in the game to catch our own slice of glory? We took our medicine last week, so now it’s time to get well and cash in. Here are our top picks and predictions for the 2024 FedEx St. Jude Championship.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
2024 FedEx St. Jude Championship: Odds, Picks & Predictions
(Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
The FedEx St. Jude Championship is down on the Beale Street blues in Memphis at TPC Southwind. The 7,200-yard track is of average Tour length. It plays to a par-70 with Bermuda grass throughout the fairways and greens. A fairer test of golf doesn’t immediately come to mind; accurate ball striking and a keen putting stroke will get around Southwind more successfully. Birdie opportunities are earned, while draconian consequences await those who find themselves ensnared in the spindly Bermuda rough. Those greens? They’re really fast, especially down-grain. Expect a winning score around 15-under, with the winning player distancing himself through consistent play and trouble avoidance.
The odds-on favorites are the usual suspects, each garnering single-digit multipliers. If it’s your prerogative to pepper the top of this board, then you do you, boo boo. It is likely we’ll see a winner from the top half of the odds board. I’ll be looking more at the next tier of elite golfers who will offer the same winning upside with more powder in the dynamite. You should still watch the Scottie Scheffler line with the intent on live betting his outright number once it hits +800 or higher. With barbecue sauce from Pollard’s on my blue suede shoes, let’s tee off.
Ludvig Åberg
The young Swede is destined for unimaginable greatness in professional golf. He has already chased a place in major championship lore in his first full season on Tour, so what will stop him from taking that next leap during these pressure-packed playoffs? Åberg is akin to a robot off the tee and has been dialed in on approach since birth. Ludvig is number one in this illustrious field in opportunities gained and third in strokes gained ball-striking. The other favorites haven’t really fared well at TPC Southwind in the past, so I’m dropping back to try and capture a piece of history. Åberg is a perfect fit for this course.
Picks: Outright +2000 [1u]; Top-5 +350 [1u]
Viktor Hovland
There is nothing wrong with last year’s Tour champion, Viktor Hovland. He has fallen short of victory in recent weeks because of one bad day (or even one bad hole). Playoff Viktor is a different breed of marksman. He is a stellar ball-striker who racks up scoring opportunities like mad, no matter the conditions. He is fifth overall in my modeling this week, thanks to very positive splits on Bermuda courses. To get such a soft line on this tier of champion golfer is too good to bypass.
Picks: Outright +3000 [1u]; Top-5 +550 [1u]
Wyndham Clark
I had no faith in Wyndham Clark at the Olympics. I thought I would be proven correct after his dismal first round in Paris, but he turned in three scintillating rounds to finish 14th. TPC Southwind and Le Golf National aren’t too dissimilar in their demands. Clark is ranked fourth in my weighted statistical model, thanks to his unbelievable penchant for making birdies (best in the field) and putting on Bermuda (also best in the field). If Clark can keep his tee shots in the short grass, the payday will be massive.
Picks: Outright +6000 [0.5u]; Top-10 +400 [0.5u]
Davis Thompson
All Davis Thompson needed was to finally win a PGA Tour event. When he took down the John Deere Classic last month, you could see that confidence soar. He made the cut in both Scottish events, then turned in a 12th-place finish at Sedgefield last week. The comps to Lucas Glover last year are uncanny. Each pulled off a late-season victory to get over the hump, with razor-sharp ball-striking and a sizzling putter to thank for it. Glover had no business winning last year’s St. Jude, but here we are reminiscing. Thompson’s steady ball striking makes him a really nice upside play from the middle tier.
Picks: Outright +6000 [0.5u]; Top-10 +360 [0.5u]
Deep Shot: Max Greyserman
There isn’t much hope for the long shots this week. One of them, however, has been a picture of consistency down the stretch of the season. Max Greyserman has fallen short of victory in consecutive weeks, including in spectacular fashion at last week’s Wyndham Championship. He has finished no worse than 31st since June 1. An 80-1 line would be a bit short in a full-field event, but we get 72 holes from everyone. He has been outstanding on approach and has ridden a hot putter of late, also ranking 10th in this field in scrambling. Greyserman’s top-10 line is currently +1200 and his top-20 payout would be +185.