2024 Hollywood Casino 400: NASCAR at Kansas Odds, Picks & Predictions
Covering NASCAR from a betting perspective for the past few years has taken me to some pretty rad places. I’ve spent weekends handicapping in the Pocono Mountains and tossed some back along the Delaware shorelines.
However, maybe nowhere beats my favorite place to take in a race: the garage. Those four walls, roughly 15 yards from my front door, are the peak seats for watching races. Coolers stocked, doors open and smoke from the grill rolling out; it doesn’t get much better than that.
It’s where I’ll be taking in race weekend 30 of the regular season, as all three series return to Kansas Speedway. The playoffs have begun across the board, and the Cup Series is onto the Round of 12. Every race matters from here on out and could be the difference between holding the championship trophy and going home empty-handed.
But before the fellas arrive and the cars take the track in the City of Fountains, we have business to attend to. Here are my best bets for the 2024 Hollywood Casino 400 and a full weekend of NASCAR racing at Kansas Speedway.
2024 Hollywood Casino 400: NASCAR at Kansas Odds, Picks & Predictions
Top 5: Tyler Reddick (+120 via BetRivers) | 1.5u
It was a slow Round of 16 for the regular season champion, Tyler Reddick. The No. 45 car finished T10 in just one of three races. However, with such a points cushion in the team’s back pocket, I have to think their sites have been set on Kansas. A win locks them into the next round, and it’s exactly what Reddick did here a season ago.
It’s also what the California native did at our latest comp track of Michigan, viewed as the larger version of Kansas. Reddick’s also put on a clinic at the high-speed intermediate tracks this season, finishing P4 at Charlotte, P4 at Texas and P2 at Las Vegas. That’s good enough to rank second in the high-speed intermediates + Michigan total speed rankings, courtesy of ifantasyrace.com.
23XI Racing has won the past two fall Kansas races. I’m betting that they get the three-peat this weekend, and if they don’t, look for Reddick to finish at least T5.
Top 10: Austin Cindric (+400 via Caesars) | .5u
This season has been a bit of a redemption story for Austin Cindric. Not only did the 26-year-old find victory lane in stunning fashion back at Gateway, but he already has as many T10s (five) as he did all last season. Cindric has also been running hot lately, finishing no worse than P13 in his last four races coming into Kansas.
While he wrecked out in the spring Kansas race, Cindric was 12th in the total speed rankings, eighth in green flag speed and was running 13th when he crashed. In five Kansas races in the Next-Gen era, Cindric has finished T10 in two (40%) and started T10 in three (60%).
Aside from qualifying, his results at comp tracks have been less-than-inspiring. Still, you’re getting a driver in the playoffs who showed speed at Kansas earlier this fall at a 4-1 price tag for a T10. Tread light, but Cindric is worth considering here and in the top Ford market (+2500).
John Hunter Nemechek (-105 via ESPN BET) vs. Corey Lajoie | 3u
With ESPN BET sponsoring this race, they’re offering some additional H2H matchups between the more mediocre cars in the field. That includes this H2H that mistakenly puts John Hunter Nemechek as the underdog against Corey Lajoie.
Keep in mind that Lajoie was traded last week, sending Justin Haley to Spire Motorsports and the 33-year-old to Rick Ware Racing (RWR) to drive the No. 51 car for the rest of this season. And while RWR has been much improved this season, they’re still at the bottom of the speed charts most weeks among full-time teams. Lajoie will make his first start for RWR and Ford as a whole this weekend at Kansas, where he finished P26 in the spring.
Meanwhile, this hasn’t been a great season for John Hunter Nemechek or Legacy Motorsports, either. Yet, Kansas is one of the North Carolina native’s best tracks. He’s won twice here in three Xfinity Series starts, including earlier this season. That same weekend, he finished P13 in the Cup Series race.
To get him here as the underdog against Lajoie, who does not have a track record of success at Kansas and is in the midst of switching teams, is a gift from the gambling gods. Hammer down.
Other Cup Series Bets on My Card:
Tyler Reddick Outright (+850 via FanDuel) | 1.5u
Ross Chastain Outright (+3000 via BetRivers) | .4u
Alex Bowman Outright (+3300 via Caesars) | .2u
Alex Bowman T10 (+300 via ESPN BET) | 1.25u
Austin Cindric Top Ford (+2500 via ESPN BET) | .1u
Chris Buescher Top Ford (+425 via ESPN BET) | .4u
Reese's 150 (Xfinity) Bets:
Sammy Smith T5 (+225 via Caesars) | 1u
Seth Woolcock is a featured writer and editor at BettingPros. For more sports betting and fantasy sports analysis from Seth, check out In-Between Media & follow him on X/Twitter @Between_SethFF.