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2024 NCAA Tournament Midwest Region Betting Primer (March Madness)

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I don’t like saying any March Madness bracket region is gross, but it is truly difficult to sort out the Midwest. Purdue is coming off one of the most embarrassing tournament losses in NCAA history. Rick Barnes’ tournament struggles are infamous. Creighton is one of the most inconsistent teams in the tournament. Kansas is missing a star player. Yet, the odds are one of those teams will make it to the Final Four.

This may be the wild west of regions. Mark Few is a capable coach of leading teams through the tournament,.Oregon is on fire. Plus, Texas has an athletic bunch. Anything can happen.

I’m here to break down each team in this region and provide a prediction for their tournament success.

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    NCAA Tournament Midwest Region Betting Primer

    (Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

    (1) Purdue Boilermakers (29-4 SU, 17-15-1 ATS, 22-11 O/U) 

    Odds to make the Final Four: +165

    Strengths: With the fourth-ranked offense in the league, Purdue can score any which way. They rank top 10 in offensive rebounding percentage, free throw rate and perimeter shooting, with the ninth-highest minutes continuity from last year. The Boilermakers faced the fourth-toughest strength of schedule as was perfect in non-conference play, already taking down fellow Midwest foes in Gonzaga and Tennessee.

    Weaknesses: Can I say the Yips? Everyone will have their eyes on them in the first game and see if they can move past the first round. If it’s a resounding victory, then kudos to them, but if they struggle, I am worried for their mental psyche as the tournament progresses. Purdue also ranks 336th in defensive turnover percentage, so teams can get a high number of shots off any given game.

    X-Factor: I feel like it’s a cop-out, but… Zach Edey. Not only is he ranked as the best player among analytical sites, but he’s also the most indispensable. The Boilermakers take a hit when he is off the court, so Edey getting in foul trouble could lead down a dangerous road. I don’t expect his play to diminish and his passing has gotten a lot better; it’s just a matter of whether he is on the court.

    Prediction: Purdue does have championship potential, and I think they find it. With last year’s experience, Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer should step up in the bigger moments, and they have played more confidently all season. Mason Gillis is yet another sharpshooter, and the depth is serious. The Boilermakers get the monkey off their back, making a deep run to lose in the championship to UConn.

    (2) Tennessee Volunteers (24-8 SU, 16-16 ATS, 16-16 O/U) 

    Odds to make the Final Four: +350

    Strengths: Defense. The Volunteers force opponents deep into the shot clock with the third-highest adjusted defensive efficiency. And that’s against the second-hardest strength of schedule vs. opposing offenses.

    Weaknesses: Rick Barnes. With one of the worst records ATS among any head coach, it’s tough to trust the Volunteers’ ability to make a deep run. Their numbers show their capability, but it’s just a matter of getting over the hump in March.

    X-Factor: Dalton Knecht. The Northern Colorado transfer has been a true delight to watch this season and I only imagine his usage to increase. He can score up to 40 points, but he has to do so in an efficient manner that doesn’t sink Tennessee.

    Prediction: Given the path, I see this as a semi-redemption route for Barnes and Co. In an exciting game against Purdue, Tennessee will drop in the Elite Eight with their heads held high.

    (3) Creighton Bluejays (23-8 SU, 17-14 ATS, 16-15 O/U) 

    Odds To Make the Final Four: +400

    Strengths: Creighton’s all-around play is highlighted by their highly effective shot-quality approach. They take a lot of threes and shots at the rim while limiting opponents to mid-range looks. With the 12th-ranked offensive efficiency and 24th-defensive efficiency, Creighton has the making of a Final Four team.

    Weaknesses: The term double-edged sword might come up a few times here, but Creighton’s dependency on the three-ball could cause them to sink or swim. Nearly 40% of their points - 14th most in the country - come from deep, meaning an off-night shooting could sink them at any point.

    X-Factor: 50% shooting! Creighton won all but three games when having above a 50% effective field goal percentage and lost six of seven when they were below this season. The offense wins championships for the Bluejays.

    Prediction: Creighton is the biggest contender for a team that can win it all or lose in the first round, so take my prediction with a grain of salt. I expect a happy medium, losing to Tennessee in the Sweet 16.

    (4) Kansas Jayhawks (22-10 SU, 13-18-1 ATS, 14-17-1 O/U) 

    Odds To Make the Final Four: +1500

    Strengths: Bill Self is arguably the best coach in the tournament and exactly who you want at the helm for a deep tournament run. His in-game adjustments and expert planning led Kansas to the 10th-ranked defense and a four-seed despite the sixth toughest strength of schedule.

    Weaknesses: Depth. Not only is Kevin McCullar ruled out for the tournament, but Kansas already ranks 317th in bench minutes. It’s tough to win six straight games with only four or five players and a middling-ranked 67th offense.

    X-Factor: Everyone knows Hunter Dickinson, but who steps up in Kevin McCullar’s absence? Dajuan Harris is my pick, followed closely by KJ Adams. Those two need to play at a whole new level for KU to make a deep run.

    Prediction: In a close game, KU will squeak by Samford only to drop in the second round.

    (5) Gonzaga Bulldogs (25-7 SU, 15-16 ATS, 13-14 O/U) 

    Odds To Make the Final Four: +750

    Strengths: Offense and pace. With one of the best transition field goal rates, games can get away from opponents quickly with one of the highest rates of 10-0 runs or “Kill Shots” in the country, via EvanMiya.

    Weaknesses: A defense of 44th is not promising for a deep tournament run. Their frontcourt depth behind Graham Ike is questionable, so foul trouble could sink them.

    X-Factor: Ike staying on the court, or Braden Huff upping his defense. Ryan Nembhard playing similar to his Creighton tournament levels is also important.

    Prediction: I have been a big proponent of McNeese all season and can’t back down now. The Cowboys handle Gonzaga’s transition play and force turnovers to upset the Bulldogs.

    (6) South Carolina (26-7 SU, 23-10 ATS, 16-17 O/U) 

    Odds To Make the Final Four: +4000

    Strengths: Their 354th pace of play can shock teams and is a big reason why they won 26 games.

    Weaknesses: The Gamecocks rank the highest among tournament teams in luck factor via KenPom. With neither offense nor defense ranking in the top 40, it’s tough to trust the Gamecocks, with the 338th non-conference strength of schedule.

    X-Factor: The College Basketball luck gods staying with South Carolina. Also, Meechie Johnson.

    Prediction: Oregon will be too good for the second USC to send the Gamecocks home early.

    (7) Texas Longhorns (20-12 SU, 12-20 ATS, 20-11-1 O/U) 

    Odds To Make the Final Four: +1600

    Strengths: The athleticism and experience are there, with Max Abmas living for March and Dylan Disu, one of the most improved players in the league.

    Weaknesses: Rodney Terry might limit this Texas team, along with their 62nd-ranked defense. Texas must get lucky with opponents missing perimeter shots to make a run.

    X-Factor: You can just see Max Abmas scoring 37 points and hitting a buzzer-beater, right?

    Prediction: Texas loses a close game to Tennessee in the Round of 32.

    (8) Utah State Aggies (27-6 SU, 14-15-2 ATS, 19-12 O/U) 

    Odds To Make the Final Four: +6000

    Strengths: Danny Sprinkle has done awesome as a first-year head coach, with the Aggies owning the third-best perimeter defense in the league.

    Weaknesses: They have all-around play, but nothing is really spectacular. Also, with such a high turnover from last year’s team, will they gel together in the tourney?

    X-Factor: Great Osobor and Darius Brown both need to take steps for some upsets to happen.

    Prediction: Utah State is one of another Mountain West squad to disappoint with a first-round exit.

    (9) TCU Horned Frogs (21-12 SU, 19-14 ATS, 18-15 O/U) 

    Odds To Make the Final Four: +2500

    Strengths: Jamie Dixon does not get enough credit. The Horned Frogs’ pace and feisty defense will give problems to opponents

    Weaknesses: With the 357th non-con strength of schedule, is TCU really battle-tested enough to make a tournament run?

    X-Factor: Emmanuel Miller needs to rebound every miss if TCU expects to get past Purdue.

    Prediction: The Horned Frogs handle business against Utah State but drop to Purdue in a tough battle.

    (10) Colorado State Rams (24-10 SU, 16-17 ATS, 13-20 O/U) 

    Odds To Make the Final Four: +4000

    Strengths: With a 360th-ranked defensive pace of play, the Rams force opponents deeper into the shot clock more than almost any other team in the country. Their interior offense excels with the ninth-ranked two-point offense.

    Weaknesses: You could say their playing a game already is a strength or weakness, but their 40th-ranked offense can hold back CSU.

    X-Factor: Isaiah Stevens is the star for Colorado State, and after a quiet game against Virginia, he needs to step up the rest of the way for the Rams to make a run.

    Prediction: Colorado State’s run ends against Texas.

    (11) Oregon Ducks (23-11 SU, 16-18 ATS, 19-14-1  O/U) 

    Odds To Make the Final Four: +5000

    Strengths: Dana Altman is the single best coach ATS in the tournament, and Oregon is playing its best ball right now with momentum.

    Weaknesses: Being impacted by injuries is a lame excuse, but no other team dealt with more injuries than Oregon did this year.

    X-Factor: N’Faly Dante, plain and simple.

    Prediction: Oregon ‘upsets’ South Carolina and competes against Creighton before dropping to the Bluejays.

    (12) McNeese State Cowboys (29-3 SU, 16-13 ATS, 17-12 O/U) 

    Odds To Make the Final Four: +7500

    Strengths: This is a dangerous and athletic team, with the sixth-highest turnover percentage forced and shooting at a nearly 39% clip from deep.

    Weaknesses: With a strength of schedule at 338th, it’s tough to judge how talented this team is.

    X-Factor: Shahada Wells is the second-most indispensable player, per EvanMiya. His play is vital to the ‘Boys success.

    Prediction: McNeese surprises and makes a trip to the Sweet 16 under Will Wade.

    (13) Samford Bulldogs (29-5 SU, 18-14  ATS, 15-17 O/U) 

    Odds To Make the Final Four: +10000

    Strengths: The Bulldogs’ pace and depth are serious, with a top-10 three-point shooting percentage.

    Weaknesses: Samford does not rebound defensively and fouls a lot, so teams can get free extra looks against them.

    X-Factor: If the three-pointers are falling, Samford can handle Kansas.

    Prediction: Samford lost to Purdue 98-45 to start the year. KU will be the best defense faced all year, and I expect Samford to lose their first-round game.

    (14) Akron Zips (24-10 SU, 16-16 ATS, 12-20 O/U) 

    Odds To Make the Final Four: +13000

    Strengths: Akron slows down the game and has the 13th-best perimeter defense, both ideal against a team like Creighton.

    Weaknesses: The Zips’ offense ranks 163rd and can’t make shots from deep, which is not a winning recipe.

    X-Factor: Ali Ali has to step up and play a much more elevated game if the Zips want to compete in this tournament.

    Prediction: With a slow pace of play and Creighton’s high three-point volume, their first-round game has a high variance. Still, Akron loses in the first round.

    (15) Saint Peter’s Peacocks (19-13 SU, 20-11 ATS, 14-17 O/U) 

    Odds To Make the Final Four: +25000

    Strengths: The Peacocks rank 78th in defensive efficiency, forcing a high number of turnovers while playing slow, all good things for a 15-seed.

    Weaknesses: Their offense is awful, with the 359th-ranked two-point shooting percentage.

    X-Factor: Maybe Zakai Zeigler’s half-brother, Armoni Zeigler, made a deal to win the game. Saint Peter’s frontcourt duo of Corey Washington and Michael Houge will have to show out if they expect to compete in any form against Tennessee.

    Prediction: The Peacocks will lose by a lot.

    (16) Montana State Bobcats (17-17 SU, 16-15 ATS, 17-14 O/U) OR
    (16) Grambling State Tigers (19-14 SU, 17-13 ATS, 14-16 O/U) 

    No, neither team is beating Purdue. Montana State handles Grambling in the play-in game.

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