2024 NCAA Tournament Odds, Picks & Predictions: Round 1 (Friday)
March Madness is here and it's time for one of the most exciting tournaments in all of sports. There are a lot of powerhouses looking good leading up to the tournament and potential Cinderella stories. It all starts on Round 1 Day 2, so let's look at some important matchups for today.
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Best Bets For The NCAA Tournament First Round (Friday)
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
No. 12 James Madison vs. No. 5 Wisconsin (-5.5) / O/U 145 (-110/-110)
James Madison already has an upset against a Big Ten team under their belt from when they beat Michigan State, and they would like a second one. That is the defining win of their season because it's the only one against a Quad 1 or 2 team. They will look to Terrence Edwards Jr., who has averaged 17.4 points per game to lead this offense, but the Dukes can move the ball well and they have a good group of upperclassmen who have played together for a while.
Only a couple months ago, Wisconsin was being talked about as a potential top seed. They started 5-0 in the conference before plummeting and finishing 3-8 the rest of the way in the regular season. They looked impressive through the conference tournament and played very well in their loss in the championship. This is an excellent offensive team, ranked 13th in offensive efficiency rating with A.J. Storr leading the way, but it has a great group of long-range shooters in Max Klesmit and Steven Crowl.
James Madison is 43rd in three-point percentage, and Wisconsin is 345th in three-point defense, so if the Dukes can hit those threes, they can contend. Five isn't generous enough to take the spread, but I will bet the Over with two very good offenses.
Pick: Over 145 (-110)
No. 9 Northwestern vs. No. 8 Florida Atlantic (-4.5) / O/U 142 (-110/-110)
Will Florida Atlantic strike gold twice? They have not been as dominant as last year, but they are still loaded with talent, including Johnell Davis, Vladislav Goldin, Alijah Martin, and Nicholas Boyd, who were all important to last year's run. This is still one of the more dangerous offenses that can score anywhere on the floor, but they've played to their competition a lot this year, which was good and bad. They had two wins against No. 4 Arizona and No. 12 Texas A&M but three losses against Quad 3 & 4 teams.
Northwestern is very balanced with a good group of veterans. They have notable wins, including against a then-undefeated Purdue, future Big Ten champs Illinois, and runner-up Wisconsin. This is not an overly athletic team, but their chemistry allows them to move the ball, find their spots, and get the high-percentage shot.
It's a battle between two different styles. FAU will want to play fast-paced, while Northwestern wants to slow the tempo. This game has the potential to stay close, but ultimately the Wildcats will not be able to keep up with the Owls and will make a late surge.
Pick: Florida Atlantic -4.5 (-115)
No. 16 Stetson vs. No. 1 Connecticut (-26.5) / O/U 145.5 (-110/-110)
UConn easily deserved the overall No. 1 seed. They are in the top 12 in offensive and defensive efficiency, No. 1 in KenPom, and the only top seed to win their conference championship. There is nowhere on the floor that they can't score. Tristen Newton and Cam Spencer are two veteran guards who are great perimeter shooters who can facilitate, while Alex Karaban and Donovan Clingan can crash the boards.
Stetson will need to come out swinging if they want any chance of keeping this game respectable. Their defense is abysmal, ranked 342nd in adjusted defensive rankings, and this is a team that played 25 of its 31 games against Quad 4 teams. One thing they can do is shoot the three, making 8.7 per game.
One of those Quad 1 losses was to Houston, who was ranked No. 1 at the time, where Stetson lost 79-48. The Huskies have that same dominance on each side of the floor and Dan Hurley will not let them take their foot off the gas.
Pick: Connecticut -26.5 (-110)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday: