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2024 NCAA Tournament Parlay Odds & Picks (March Madness)

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There might not be a better stretch on the sports betting calendar than the first two days of the NCAA Tournament. Non-stop action from noon to practically midnight is truly a bettor’s galore.

And in sports betting, there’s no greater “One Shining Moment,” than nailing a big, juicy parlay during the action.

This article’s goal and intent is to help you have that moment. We’re going parlay hunting, and hopefully we strike it big. Here’s the parlay I’ve constructed, working chronologically, for Thursday and Friday of the big dance.

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Round 1 Parlay for the 2024 NCAA Tournament 

Thursday’s Picks 

Leg 1: Morehead State +11.5 vs. Illinois 

For those itching to get things started right away, I’ve got some bad news: this parlay won’t begin until shortly after 3 p.m. But that’s okay, sometimes it’s nice to settle in.

Morehead State profiles as a team that not only can cover a double-digit spread, but can perhaps pull off a shocking first-round upset. And while Illinois is coming off of a Big Ten Tournament championship, the Eagles aren’t exactly an ideal matchup for them.

The Eagles play at a slow pace (333rd in tempo), shoot a high volume of threes (25th in 3-point rate), make about 35% of them, and are good on the glass at both ends. It also helps that the Eagles rank ninth nationally in effective field-goal percentage. A good 3-point shooting team that limits possessions gives us more variance that favors these big dogs.

Now, Morehead State is a 14-seed for a reason. There are flaws. They turn the ball over at an alarming rate and do send opponents to the free-throw line at a decent rate. However, Illinois ranks 360th in causing turnovers, which could mitigate Morehead State's most glaring flaw.

Plus, the Illini defense is capable of getting gauged against anyone, ranking 97th in adjusted defensive efficiency and are 179th in that same metric over their last 10 games.

Now, Terrance Shannon Jr. is awesome, and the Eagles will have a hard time containing him. But I still question whether this Illini supporting cast can do enough around him, even in the first round.

There's also some recent precedent that supports fading the Big Ten Tournament winner in the NCAA Tournament. Last year's Big Ten tourney winner was none other than Purdue. The year before that, Iowa won the tournament and lost as a 5-seed to 12th-seed Richmond. That Hawkeyes team is also eerily similar to this year's Illinois team. That Iowa team ranked third in adjusted offensive efficiency and 81st defensively.

Leg 2: Samford +7 vs Kansas 

This is another trendy underdog pick that’s getting even trendier after news came out that Kevin McCullar would miss the rest of the year with a knee injury. That’s a vital blow for a Kansas team that’s already dangerously thin and now will be playing against a Bulldogs team that plays a frantic style in altitude, no less. And on top of that, Hunter Dickinson may not be 100% with a shoulder injury that kept him out of the Big 12 championship game.

Samford presses the heck out of you, turns teams over regularly, plays at the 11th-fastest pace in the nation and shoots nearly 40% from three. The Bulldogs also invite teams to shoot a ton of threes and aren’t all that good at defending them. However, Kansas hardly takes any threes, preferring to score by driving the lane and getting the ball to Dickinson down low. And McCullar led the team in 3-point attempts, meaning the onus will now be on freshman Johnny Furphy and Nicholas Timberlake to carry the load from the perimeter.

I also just get the sense this Jayhawks team is worn down and a shell of the team that looked like one of the best in college basketball before the new year. Bill Self is brilliant, but this game has the potential to be a nail-biter, especially when you consider Kansas ranks 303rd in defensive 3-point rate. If Samford’s hitting shots, we could be in store for a major upset.

Leg 3: Drake (-115) vs. Washington State 

After opening as an underdog, the Drake Bulldogs have now become a short favorite. And I agree with the line shift.

Drake is for real, and hails from a Missouri Valley Conference that's proven to have no fear playing the role of David against a Power-Five Goliath.

Drake can light up the scoreboard with four players scoring in double figures. The Bulldogs are a superb shooting team from both the interior and the perimeter, they take care of the basketball, and they've got valuable tournament experience.

Drake also matches up well with Washington State. The Cougars rely heavily on the offensive glass, but they will have a tough time getting second-chance opportunities against the best defensive rebounding team in the country.

The biggest impediment to a Drake upset is the interior matchup. Washington State prefers to get their points at the rim, and the Bulldogs allowed opponents to hit 51.4% of their 2-point shots this season.

Making matters even tougher for Wazzu is their draw. This game will take place in Omaha, which is two hours away from Drake's campus.

Hopefully we conclude Thursday night with our parlay still intact. Or, you can split the parlay into two if you so choose.

Friday’s Picks 

Leg 4: Baylor -13.5 vs. Colgate 

This just has the feeling of a smash spot for a Baylor team that’s elite on offense and has the athletes to overwhelm Colgate. The Raiders have given teams a scare in previous NCAA Tournament stints, but their close calls came against slower, unathletic teams. Baylor is the direct opposite of that.

The Bears will also get Langston Love back for this game, which adds even more firepower to a team that ranks 6th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency.

Sure, Baylor’s defense and propensity for turning the ball over is concerning. However, Colgate’s offense ranks just 225th in efficiency, and the Raiders hardly turn opponents over.

Hopefully, this is the easiest leg of the parlay.

Leg 5: James Madison (+5.5) vs. Wisconsin

The fifth and final leg is another popular upset pick, but one that I’m believing in. Even if James Madison doesn’t pull the outright upset, let’s hope they can at least cover the spread here.

While the Badgers found their stroke from beyond the arc to begin the Big Ten Tournament, their shooting fell back to earth when the competition stiffened. Against Purdue and Illinois, the Badgers shot 14-for-52 from deep. Now, they’ll face a Dukes team that defends the three at the second-best rate in the country.

James Madison’s offense is also rather balanced. The Dukes rank top-50 in both 3-point and 2-point percentages, they take a good amount but not an excessive amount of threes, and they clean up the offensive glass and get to the foul line at decent rates. James Madison shouldn’t face much resistance against the Badgers, who rank 271st in effective field goal percentage defensively.

One concern for James Madison is Wisconsin’s size, as the undersized Dukes could struggle against 7-footer Stephen Crowl. But while Wisconsin is truly a Goliath in size, I don’t think James Madison will be intimidated. The Dukes already have a win over a Big Ten team on their resume, taking down Michigan State on the road in the first game of the season.

Parlay odds: +2337

Check out all of our 2024 NCAA Tournament Bracket & Betting Coverage >>

More 2024 NCAA Tournament Bracket Pool Strategy & Picks

Below we provide strategy, advice, and picks to create the optimal NCAA Tournament bracket. And be sure to use our FREE bracket optimizer to build a winning men’s NCAA tournament bracket and take down your contest!

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