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2024 NCAA Tournament: Which No. 2 Seed Will Be Eliminated First?

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Back in the day, it felt like No. 1 and No. 2 seeds were practically invincible. Sure, we had seen a handful of No. 15 seeds pull off the rare upset. We even had two No. 2 seeds lose in the first round in the same year (Duke to Lehigh and Missouri to Norfolk State in 2012). Then a couple more upsets occurred in 2013 and 2016. And then the 15-seeds went on a drought, that was until 2021.

During the 2021 dance, Oral Roberts knocked off Ohio State in a victory that began a trend. A 15-seed has not only pulled off an upset in the first round, but it’s gotten to the Sweet Sixteen in each of the last three tournaments.

So unlike in years past, No. 2 seeds need to be on notice starting with tip off of their first tournament game. That especially goes for Arizona, who lost as a 2-seed to Princeton last year.

Whether it’s in the first round or further down the road, here’s a look at which No. 2 seed could be the first sent home.

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Which 2024 No. 2 Seed Most Likely to Lose First?

Iowa State Cyclones 

Overview

You could argue the Cyclones got a pretty raw draw. Not only are they in UConn’s region, but they’re also in an East Region featuring the Big Ten champions (3-seed Illinois), the SEC champion Auburn, and three of last year’s Final Four teams!

But the Cyclones will make life miserable for any of the teams they face in March. They play a high-pressure defense predicated on turning opponents over, something Iowa State did on 25.7% of their defensive possessions.

Flaws

Iowa State is a tremendous defensive team, but they can go through droughts on the other end. They also give up a ton of threes as a result of their swarming defense, which could give first-round opponent South Dakota State some hope.

The Cyclones also don’t clean up the defensive glass very well and send teams to the free throw line at pretty high rate. Against teams that force the action offensively, ISU could be in trouble.

The Path 

The Jackrabbits shoot the three at a top-50 rate, which could keep them alive longer than people expect. However, Iowa State’s athleticism and aggression should prevail.

In the Round of 32, both Washington State and Drake present their fair share of challenges. However, it’s Drake’s ability to shoot threes at a high level and take care of the ball that could make them particularly pesky. Washington State does a decent job at protecting the ball and could take advantage of Iowa State’s struggles on the defensive glass.

From there, a potential matchup with Illinois would be a true clash of styles: elite offense vs. elite defense.

The Verdict 

Iowa State could be tested in its first two games of the tournament. And Iowa State’s lackluster non-conference slate could be a reason why the overachieving Cyclones weren’t awarded a No. 1 seed. But I don’t think anyone in Iowa State’s pod is complete enough to pull off a shocker.

Arizona Wildcats 

Overview

The Wildcats vary between dazzling to downright disappointing. Arizona plays beautiful offensive basketball, ranking 16th in tempo, 25th in effective field goal percentage and 16th in offensive rebounding. Caleb Love is capable of taking Arizona to a title, or knocking them out in the opening weekend.

The upside is there, but with a high ceiling comes a low floor.

Flaws

The Wildcats can struggle on the defensive end. Arizona allows a high number of threes and are an average perimeter defense team. While the Wildcats embrace a track meet type of game, an opponent that plays at a slower pace is capable of frustrating them on the offensive end.

The Path 

I find it highly unlikely Long Beach State will sneak up on the Wildcats after last year’s disastrous loss to Princeton. Plus, it feels like the Beach are getting too much attention after winning the Big West Tournament with a head coach who was going to be fired after their season ended. Long Beach State also caters to Arizona in terms of their play style, as they rank 23rd in tempo.

From there, things could get tricky. Both Nevada and Dayton are plucky mid-majors fully capable of knocking off a giant. Both teams play at a slow pace — Dayton plays far slower though — and are good 3-point shooting teams. Dayton feels like the slightly better matchup as they rank 51st in effective field goal percentage.

A potential matchup with Baylor in the Sweet Sixteen would be a true shootout.

The Verdict 

If Dayton and Arizona meet in the Round of 32, there could be a upset on the horizon. However, Arizona’s draw outside of the second round isn’t all that intimidating in a weak West Region.

Tennessee Volunteers 

With Rick Barnes in March, anything is truly possible. But these Volunteers might be different because of Dalton Knecht, who would be the unanimous National Player of the Year if Zach Edey didn’t exist. Although, Knecht and Edey could square off in an Elite Eight matchup.

The Volunteers play their typical stifling defense. They rank 6th in effective field goal percentage on that end, they turn teams over at a high rate and play at a faster tempo than they ever have in Barnes’ tenure at the helm.

At their best, Tennessee is a national title contender.

Flaws 

Tennessee’s offense can be too reliant on Knecht. And while he’s spectacular, there’s a chance Tennessee’s supporting cast might need to win them a game when Knecht is struggling. Even with Knecht, Tennessee ranks just 132nd in effective field goal percentage, putting more pressure on Tennessee to pull down offensive rebounds.

Defensively, the Vols also can get in foul trouble as a result of their aggressiveness. Tennessee also allows a high number of 3-point attempts, which could get them into trouble against a hot-shooting team.

The Path 

St. Peter’s is one of those 15 seeds to knock off a 2-seed. But this St. Peter’s team isn’t quite as good as the team that knocked off Kentucky a couple of years ago.

Many will look toward a Round of 32 matchup between Barnes and his old school, Texas, but Virginia or Colorado State could pose a decent threat as well. A potential matchup with Creighton, a tremendous 3-point shooting team, could result in a Sweet Sixteen exit.

The Verdict

Tennessee’s path to the Sweet Sixteen isn’t quite as imposing as the teams I mentioned above. But things could get awfully tough on the Vols should they get that far.

Marquette Golden Eagles

Overview

Marquette is an exceptional offensive team that’s at its best when it’s getting into the lane. They rank 16th in 2-point shooting and make 35.8% of their threes. The Golden Eagles also pride themselves on disruptive deflections, ranking 20th in turnovers generated on defense.

There is a massive question surrounding the Golden Eagles, however: the health of top player Tyler Kolek. He’s been out since late February with an oblique injury, and while he’s expected back for the start of the NCAA Tournament, it’s uncertain how close to 100% he’ll be.

Flaws 

Marquette isn’t interested in offensive rebounding, as they prefer to get back on defense and prevent transition opportunities. But they also struggle mightily with teams with size who crash the offensive glass, as they rank 273rd in defensive rebounding.

The Golden Eagles also don’t defend the perimeter very well. They allow teams to shoot a ton of threes and rank 155th in 3-point defense.

The Path 

Marquette shouldn’t have many issues against Western Kentucky in the first round, but things could get dicey in the second round, as Florida, Colorado and Boise State are strong rebounding teams. From there, a potential game with Kentucky could serve as a high-scoring thriller.

The Verdict 

Marquette feels like a team that could get bounced in the Round of 32 or go to the Final Four.

Ranking the No. 2 Seeds in Order of Likelihood to Be the First to Lose

  1. Marquette
  2. Arizona
  3. Iowa State
  4. Tennessee

Check out all of our 2024 NCAA Tournament Bracket & Betting Coverage >>

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